United States Senate – Destined to be GOP
By Brian Kirwin | Tuesday, November 9th, 2010 | PoliticsIf the United States Senate is not Majority Republican in two years, we’ll have no one to blame but ourselves.
Heck, it could be sooner rather than later, if Senator-elect Joe Manchin joins the GOP, as the Washington Post reports he might. A few more like that, and the Dems 53-47 advantage could quickly go bye-bye.
The GOP gained 6 Senate seats in an election year where 19 Dems and 18 Republicans were up.
In 2012, the Senators up will be 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans and 2 Independents.
A good deal of those Senators won nailbiters in Montana, Missouri, and Virginia. Will Obama leading the ticket help or hurt those efforts? Will some of these folks just flat-out retire, like 12 Senators did this year.
Virginia has its role to play with Senator Jim Webb as Obama’s campaign partner in 2012. Without a Bush White House, a war to run against, a Constitutional amendment bringing out Democrats, and an idiotic press refusing to talk about campaign issues, can Jim Webb win?
The next 18 months of the Obama Presidency may have more to do with Webb’s success or failure than anything Webb does. Who leads the GOP Presidential ticket, and which candidates are nominated for these Senate seats, will of course be crucial.
But the numbers are there. Simply reversing the fluke wins from 2006 gives the Senate to the GOP in two years.
Anything more, and it’s another tsunami bringing us into 2013 with both Houses of Congress back in the GOP column by large margins, and maybe even the White House, too.
Tags:
Contribute for Conservatism!
Share this post
About the author
The right wants to jeer him. The left wants to censor him. Moderates usually want both. Brian Kirwin is a political consultant and public relations strategist in Virginia Beach with a lightning-rod flair. Brian also serves on the VB Arts & Humanities Commission and frequently appears on Hampton Roads theatrical stages, if only to prove that all actors aren’t liberals. Kirwin’s columns stir up debate and hit the political scene with no punches pulled.
Comments
11 Responses to "United States Senate – Destined to be GOP"
I’m still not convinced well will run again. He doesn’t have a track record of staying in anyone place for a long time. And this has to cut down on this writing time.
From what I have been reading, it seems like Webb has yet to decide if he will run again.
What happens in the next 7 months should help with predictions for 2012, my guess is a 10 senator pickup. However I also predicted that Rigell would win 60-40 last Tuesday so…..
Mr Kirwin, perhaps a little kindness and understanding toward Golden supporters would be appropriate for a couple of weeks.
James, I reserve my kindness and understanding for Republicans.
Since I am not a republican then I shall expect no mercy from you.
If history holds true and we win the white house in 2012, what Democrat do you think will end up being our next governor?
James, I’ll give ya plenty of mercy…just not kindness or understanding.
Chris, a very astute comment. I wouldn’t want to be Bill Bolling.
Brian: Bolling as a candidate has always been a set up for a Dem win in 2013, which leads me to believe he won’t BE the candidate. Although, I guess you guys would trade the governor’s mansion for the presidency, if that’s what the curse requires.
It’s a little early to call 2012 though, look how the political landscape changed in the last two years.
Two years is an eternity in politics. Obama may rally the troops yet again. Or he’ll continue to bunker down and enjoy the benefits of globe trottings. Much of course will depend on how the new GOP behaves both in DC and back home.
And we must admit, we have no strong candidate for President yet. (And no, I don’t consider Sarah Palin a strong candidate.)
And @James Hawkins. Where did Brian mention Kenny Golden in this piece? Who’s Kenny Golden?
Ahem Brian,
I think the constitutional amendment you refer to should have motivated Republicans as much or more then it did Democrats. As I recall, the amendment in question passed at the same time Webb won. Seems the Republican candidate should have started off with an advantage since Webb’s position on the issue stood counter to it.
As for Webb running for reelection, he has been an extremely lackluster fundraiser. Political pundits are saying his lack of fund-raising betrays his lack of enthusiasm for running again.
I’m hoping he just is not willing to sell his soul to raise money while he governs. Perhaps he hopes his record will result in the money showing up when he needs it. I can keep my fingers crossed.
Brian-
Great point that the Democrats will have so many seats up for election. Question: Will Nancy Pelosi be the Minority Leader, and as such be of assistance to Republicans again in 2012? A lot of moderate Democrats are no longer in the House, so she is representative of the remaining caucus.
I’m picking Cuccinelli to break history’s pattern as well!
Does anyone know who is running on the republican side for webb’s seat. I know George Allen will, I have heard some say Whittman might, and in a few circles I have heard Mizusawa from the va2 primary might. Any ideas?
Leave your response
The comments section is for meaningful discussion. Readers are reminded to post comments that are germane to the article and write in a common language that steers clear of personal attacks and/or vulgarities.
Please take a moment to review our comment policy.