What happened on Tuesday
By D.J. McGuire | Thursday, November 4th, 2010 | Politics
While there are still a few races out there to be determined we have, for the most part, a good bead on what the voters did two days ago.
For starters, big-ticket Dem wins notwithstanding, this was a massive Republican landslide. In fact, the best indicator of this is the Senate results – the one place where the GOP was disappointed. Out of 37 Senate elections held on Tuesday, the Republicans won at least 24, and perhaps 25 if Dino Rossi pulls it out in Washington. Either way, it’s a better result than any in recent memory – including the Reagan tide of 1980.
What made the GOP win look small was the Democrats’ lopsided majorities in the 2006 and 2008 classes. Unlike the House, they were spared the voters’ wrath. For the most part, though, Democrats who were on the ballot in 2010 – no matter what the office - were pasted.
That said, in some places the pain for the Democrats was excruciating, while in others, it just hurt. To wit, the Republican wave weakened somewhat at the Missouri River. This may be the first time the Missouri became a political boundary (the Mississippi, Ohio, and Potomac rivers are more familiar with this sort of thing), but the Senate and state legislative elections (see Jay Cost) show that the GOP underperformed in the southern Rockies and the Pacific Coast. Now, there was some impressive Congressional gains for the GOP in that region, so it wasn’t as if the Republicans were frozen out. However, I do find it interesting that among the party’s Teabrewer nominees in particular, only one east of the Mountain Time Zone lost (O’Donnell in Delaware). Calfornia has been bleeding economic escapees for quite while; they may be doing to the southern Rockies what northeastern migrants have done to parts of the South – make them more receptive to Democrats. It’s something to watch, in any event.
Meanwhile, two ballot measures jumped out at me: first, Washington state voted down a millionaire’s tax - perhaps even by a landslide. Keep in mind, this is the deepest blue state west of Wisconsin no, wait, Illinois oops! sorry, um . . . Maryland. There we go. Anyhow, Washington is one of the last places where one would expect tax-the-rich to go down in flames, but it did.
Secondly, in California, the two-thirds majority requirement to pass a budget was taken down by the voters. Much of the talk about California was driven by the fact that a very small Republican caucus in the Assembly (lower house) could block a tax increase because it was larger than 1 in 3 members. What was usually not mentioned was that the Democrats were usually able to peel off of a Republican or two anyway, but not before the GOP was given heavily inflated “responsibility” for trying to spare the taxpayer another whack. Even with Governor Arnold parting from the scene, this was the fate of California politics without Prop 25 passing. Now that 25 did pass, Jerry Brown can raise any tax he wants without trying to buy off any Republicans. For the California taxpayer, it means little (as I said, usually some Republicans would cave) but it does mean that the GOP can stand on the sidelines and take the time and effort to construct alternative budgets and plans – things an opposition is supposed to do, but that the GOP couldn’t. On the surface, it will appear that the End of the Arnie Era will liberate the GOP – and it will, but Prop 25 will have a hand in it, too. Don’t be surprised if the Golden State Republicans recover handsomely in 2012 and 2014.
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Former candidate for Board of Supervisors in Spotsylvania, current blogger, economics teacher, and long-rumored windbag. There are two causes closest to the heart: steering the country away from the social democratic nonsense that is sinking Europe, and convincing the rest of the "rightosphere" that the NBA really is a joy to watch.
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Comments
11 Responses to "What happened on Tuesday"
D.J., sorry, I did not read your article. The cartoon said it all. If you really think the republicans crushed the democrats, you have misread the results of the election. The lack of jobs, and the slow growth in the economy, crushed the democrats. Frankly, if your leaders don’t get real about job creation, and forget these pledges to defeat the President, the same thing will happen to your new electees next time as well.
Mike,
Believe it or not Dems could care less about job creation. Pelosi Obama and the rest said repeatedly that unemployment checks were the best stimulus. Pelosi said health care paid by some rich guy behind the tree would let everyone quit their job and fingerpaint. All the precious socialist countries around the world have large persistent and growing unemployed except those moving to free enterprise. Dems are gangster socialists running machine politics ripping off the country and not even providing a job for the schmucks – just a few handouts.
D. J.,
I did read your article and both you and Mike are correct. This was a Republican landslide, a direct reflection of voter dissatisfaction with the Democratic-controlled Congress and the immensely unpopular legislation that they “had to pass so that they would know what’s in it.” Your graphic would be more accurate if you had an Independent sitting astride the elephant.
Mike, however, has an important point. If the Republicans revert their attention to their usual nonsense, such as Constitutional amendments to ban gay marriages, overturn Roe v. Wade, etc, instead of meaningful solutions to Federal deficits and unemployment, then in two years it will be an Independent sitting on a donkey kicking the shit out of an elephant.
DJ,
You make a good point about the Rocky Mountain states being filled with the liberal termites, er voters, escaping from the tottering house of California. Actually even Clinton picked up a few states out there if memory serves me. If Republicans were smart (I know I know) they would make the state constitutions more liberal proof on spending while there’s still time. If you cut off the gravy train the termites, er the liberals, starve. Its also true that these RM states will go belly up much more quickly from socialist tax and spend than CA. Also, the Republicans need to recapture the midwest which they made a good start on. Trading Colorado Montana and Nevada for Michigan Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is a great deal.
Yes, with today’s jobs announcement, and the year long trend toward positive private job creation, we are moving forward, but too slowly for the voters. On the other hand, the loss of state and local government jobs has depressed local economies. Frankly, the balance between cuts in the budget, and actions to spur the economy, need to build on the existing momentum and not cause a double dip. Frankly, as a businessman, I prefer the solid foundation currently being created to a return to irrational exhuberance that created the illusion of prosperity and then disaster.
Tueday was about the economy, nothing else. If the unemployment rate was 6% instead of over 9% it doesn’t happen. If the unemployment rate is near the same level on Election Day 2012 Webb and Obama will lose. If it’s significantly lower, Obama won’t lose and Webb will be a favorite to hold his seat.
“Whichever party controls Congress, in the end, will not change American foreign policy significantly, and will not change over American domestic politics very much, either. One prominent American scholar once said that elections do not change much. Social movement does. I think that he is right. The American political system is one of the most conservative systems in the world, and it resists change. Even though around election time, politicians always say how important and crucial the election results will be for their future, after the vote it is often business as usual again.
One thing is certain though. The United States is on a path to decline for the moment, with its unemployment and unprecedented government deficit. It does not matter which party is in control of Congress, it will not be able to change this trend.
At the end of World War?, the US held 75 percent of the world’s gold, and produced 50 percent of the world’s GDP. All the major countries were indebted to the US at the time. In a little over 60 years, the US government squandered its huge fortunes over many unpopular wars. The Americans have fought more wars than any other country in the world since then. Many American people used to say that war is good for business. That may be true for business people. There is no doubt that many businesses prospered with American wars. But wars are not necessarily good for the state or ordinary citizens in the long run.
It is time for American politicians to stop blaming others for its problems and illnesses, and face the challenges and problems they generated themselves. American politicians always preach to the world about the virtues of democracy. If a democratic system of government cannot correct itself, and is always fighting more wars, what good is democracy? ”
From China Daily http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/index.html
The government of China is run by the Chinese Communist Party. No free press. When you read China Daily, you see the world thru the eyes of the Chinese leaders.
“In an essay published on Thursday elaborating his thoughts on reforming the international framework for prudent macroeconomic management, Xia warned that “another crisis would be inevitable” if the world failed to restrain the issuance of major reserve currencies, such as the US dollar.”
The huge deficit spending by the US government can not continue.
“What happened on Tuesday” is that 29 million American voters who voted in 2008 failed to show up to vote. That says alot and all you really need to know.
I think they will be back in 2012.
Perhaps people vote when they refuse to vote. Was it really that hard to vote last Tuesday ?
“Donald Trump said he is considering a run for President in 2012 because of the condition of the country. Trump said one of the key problems America faces is the movement of so many jobs overseas, and the rise of China. “We are rebuilding China,” Trump said, and “our economy is getting killed. . . . “We’re losing our jobs to China.”
Trump said he would “tax Chinese products” as a way to level the playing field with them. The Chinese have “manipulated their currency” to gain a competitive edge with the dollar, even though the quality of their product is woefully inadequate. “We don’t have free trade right now,” he said. “China is ripping us like no one has ever ripped us before.”
Trump said Chinese businessman tell him privately, “We cannot believe what we’re getting away with. . . . They can’t believe how stupid our Representatives are.” In response to China’s unfair trade practices and manipulation of currency, Trump said he would favor a “25% tax” on all goods from China. If we did that, he said, “suddenly you would have toys being made here” in America.”
I would think that would mean more union jobs.
I’m not sure I agree with the specific prescription, but he’s on to the real problem. We’ll either rebuild our manufacturing base or we’ll be a third world county in a generation.
Trump gets it and so do you James. Great posts guy. So few have the cajones to look at our problems that we created by allowing them to fester. Until we understand, react and respond rationally to our short sighted bipartisan tax and spend problem, we will not overcome it. Trump has the luxury of not having to cowtow to a party and he would till the establishments into the dirt. People would support him if for no other reason than to spite the elite. Trump would decentralize banking and the control ammased by decades of federal abuse.
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