While there are still a few races out there to be determined we have, for the most part, a good bead on what the voters did two days ago.
For starters, big-ticket Dem wins notwithstanding, this was a massive Republican landslide. In fact, the best indicator of this is the Senate results – the one place where the GOP was disappointed. Out of 37 Senate elections held on Tuesday, the Republicans won at least 24, and perhaps 25 if Dino Rossi pulls it out in Washington. Either way, it’s a better result than any in recent memory – including the Reagan tide of 1980.
What made the GOP win look small was the Democrats’ lopsided majorities in the 2006 and 2008 classes. Unlike the House, they were spared the voters’ wrath. For the most part, though, Democrats who were on the ballot in 2010 – no matter what the office – were pasted.
That said, in some places the pain for the Democrats was excruciating, while in others, it just hurt. To wit, the Republican wave weakened somewhat at the Missouri River. This may be the first time the Missouri became a political boundary (the Mississippi, Ohio, and Potomac rivers are more familiar with this sort of thing), but the Senate and state legislative elections (see Jay Cost) show that the GOP underperformed in the southern Rockies and the Pacific Coast. Now, there was some impressive Congressional gains for the GOP in that region, so it wasn’t as if the Republicans were frozen out. However, I do find it interesting that among the party’s Teabrewer nominees in particular, only one east of the Mountain Time Zone lost (O’Donnell in Delaware). Calfornia has been bleeding economic escapees for quite while; they may be doing to the southern Rockies what northeastern migrants have done to parts of the South – make them more receptive to Democrats. It’s something to watch, in any event.
Meanwhile, two ballot measures jumped out at me: first, Washington state voted down a millionaire’s tax – perhaps even by a landslide. Keep in mind, this is the deepest blue state west of Wisconsin no, wait, Illinois oops! sorry, um . . . Maryland. There we go. Anyhow, Washington is one of the last places where one would expect tax-the-rich to go down in flames, but it did.
Secondly, in California, the two-thirds majority requirement to pass a budget was taken down by the voters. Much of the talk about California was driven by the fact that a very small Republican caucus in the Assembly (lower house) could block a tax increase because it was larger than 1 in 3 members. What was usually not mentioned was that the Democrats were usually able to peel off of a Republican or two anyway, but not before the GOP was given heavily inflated “responsibility” for trying to spare the taxpayer another whack. Even with Governor Arnold parting from the scene, this was the fate of California politics without Prop 25 passing. Now that 25 did pass, Jerry Brown can raise any tax he wants without trying to buy off any Republicans. For the California taxpayer, it means little (as I said, usually some Republicans would cave) but it does mean that the GOP can stand on the sidelines and take the time and effort to construct alternative budgets and plans – things an opposition is supposed to do, but that the GOP couldn’t. On the surface, it will appear that the End of the Arnie Era will liberate the GOP – and it will, but Prop 25 will have a hand in it, too. Don’t be surprised if the Golden State Republicans recover handsomely in 2012 and 2014.
