Since Frank Wolf will win with 60% of the vote, this post will be about the other two NOVA Republicans: Keith Fimian and Patrick Murray. I’ll also take a look at Mark Kelly.
I’m going to give some final analysis on the races, post some predictions, and finally tell you where their respective victory parties are.
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Keith Fimian
It was recently announced that the DCCC has dropped over $1 million in order to help Gerry Connolly attack Fimian on abortion. That, as well as an anti-gun campaign, show that Connolly is vulnerable.
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Below are some pictures of a few protesters at the Northern Virginia GOTV Rally. They’re protesting comments that Keith made about Virginia Tech and guns. At an earlier media appearance, Fimian had said that VA Tech could have been prevented if a student was “packing heat.” Since then, Fimian has apologized for his remark.
In addition, Patrick Reed, a father of a girl murdered at Tech, was at the rally and got to personally speak with Keith. Below are some photos of him speaking to the media. I heard a rumor that Gerry Connolly told him to attend the rally.
Currently, the New York Times lists this race as a “Toss Up“FiveThirtyEight.com predicts the following results:
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Connolly: 49.7%
Fimian: 47.9%
In addition, Five Thirty Eight believes that there is a 60.3% chance of Connolly winning, compared to a 39.7% chance of Fimian winning. At the beginning of the month, the website listed Connolly’s chances of getting re-elected at over 80%. This means that this race is getting closer! The results will be VERY close and a game of who gets who to the polls.
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Patrick Murray
Murray, who has struggled in the polls, did get a recent boost by some questionable comments from Moran about public service. While at an Arlington County Democratic Committee meeting, Moran made the following comments,
“What [Republicans] do is that they find candidates – usually stealth candidates – that haven’t been in office, haven’t served or performed any kind of public service. My opponent is typical.”
While Moran swears that he was talking about serving in civic associations and PTAs, Murray calls the Congressman’s remarks an outrage, saying that Moran thinks that military service is not public service.
Either way, it has given Murray some nice press. Check out one story below.
Despite all of this controversy, the New York Times lists this race as a “Solid Democratic“ and FiveThirtyEight.com predicts the following results:
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Moran: 62.9%
Murray: 34.6%
Five Thirty Eight believes that there is a 99.8% chance of Moran winning and a 0.2% chance of Murray winning. From February until about a week ago, the website listed Moran’s chances at 100%. I guess the military remarks did hurt Moran after all.
However, I think given all of the effort on the RetireJimMoran project, I think Moran’s numbers will be under 60%.
Mark Kelly
While County Board races in Arlington never get much attention, this year is somewhat different. The 2010 mood has even reached Arlington, usually a Democratic stronghold. In addition, Chris Zimmerman, the incumbent is being forced to defend wasteful spending and the Washington Metro. (He serves on the Metro Board.)
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Kelly had been running neck and neck in terms of fundraising with Zimmerman and has hit the airwaves. This is especially important as Zimmerman has decided not to do TV ads. In addition, many Republicans don’t recall the last time an Arlington Republican aired a TV ad. Check it out below.
Victory Parties (Tuesday Night)
Frank Wolf Victory Party – 7pm at the Dulles Holiday Inn (45425 Holiday Dr., Dulles, VA)
Keith Fimian Victory Party – 7:30 pm at the Mason Inn! (George Mason University) Directions and details here.
Patrick Murray Victory Party - 7pm at Bailey’s Sports Grille. (4238 Wilson Blvd Arlington, VA, 2203) More details here.
Mark Kelly Victory Party – 7:30 pm at Hard Times Cafe in Arlington. (3028 Wilson Blvd)
In addition, I’m told Alexandria City Councilman Frank Fannon is having an election night party. I will post the details later when I get them.
Josh is studying Government and Administration of Justice at George Mason University. He also blogs under the name "Not Jim Moran" at http://rednova8.com
Comments
8 Responses to "The Final Push for Northern Virginia"
The gun show loophole allows for every attendee of a gun show to purchase a gun without going through a background check as long as they can find a private seller to purchase from.
I actually think this might be better be described as a private seller to private purchaser loophole. The purchase does not have to happen at a gun show. It is just that at gun shows transactions take place where the seller surrenders ownership of the weapon to purchasers of questionable background purely based on economics. Who is willing to pay the highest price and even if you are a criminal you wind up winning and getting the weapon you desire?
Say it isn’t so. If you have reason to fear a background check where would you go to buy weapons?
HisRoc November 1, 201011:51 am
Will White,
The “gun show loophole” refers to the fact that unlicensed, private sellers are not required to perform a background check on buyers before completing the transaction to sell a firearm. That means that you can go to a gun show and while the Federal Firearms Licensed (FFL) dealers must perform a computer background check on you before completing a sale, an unlicensed collector or other private individual can sell you a gun without determining if you are a felon, former mental patient, someone under a restraining order, or otherwise disqualified from owning a gun.
Presumably, requiring all sellers at a gun show to obtain a background check would limit sales to prohibited persons. Most, if not all, gun shows offer computer connections where sellers can perform instant background checks.
However, this would not affect private sales outside of a gun show, anymore than you have to have an auto dealers license to sell your car to another person or have a business license to conduct a garage sale.
And, of course, nothing prevents the most common way of prohibited persons from obtaining guns–the straw buyer. This is where a prohibited person simply gives a qualified buyer, such as a girlfriend or relative or friend, the money to buy a gun in a gun store and give it to them.
Closing the “gun show loophole” garnered a great deal of attention and publicity following the Virginia Tech murders, despite the fact that Cho Seung-Hui legally purchased his handguns in a gun store after passing a background check. Although he had received court-ordered treatment for a mental disorder, he had never been committed to in-patient treatment and therefore was not reportable as a prohibited person. That loophole has since been closed and any person who receives court-ordered mental treatment, in-patient or out-patient, is now reportable.
Will White November 1, 201011:59 am
So really it isn’t a gun show loophole now ? Maybe instead of trying to stop something that doesn’t exist a law could be put in place to stop individuals from selling guns at gun shows.
HisRoc November 1, 201014:13 pm
Will White,
I can think of half a dozen Constitutional problems with that and what purpose would it serve? Is there any difference between walking into a gun show and conducting a private transaction and doing it via Craig’s List or any other classified service? And, how would that solve the problem of straw buyers which, many believe, is the principal source of guns for prohibited persons?
(Yeah, I know. Selling weapons is prohibited on Craig’s List. And you can’t find a hooker there, either.)
Will White November 1, 201016:25 pm
I just don’t see how it can be called a gunshow loop hole.
Should we have background checks for things like voting and free speech and being a minister? Civil Liberties are at the heart of the bill of rights and we cannot abandon them.
What we’re seeing is more families of victims being trotted out by the left.
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8 Responses to "The Final Push for Northern Virginia"
Close the Gun Hole Loophole.
I noticed that was one of the signs carried by protesters.
Close the loophole and ensure only lawful citizens are allowed to purchase and carry is my opinion.
Please tell me exactly what the gun show loophole does and how closing it would change gun sales ?
Will White,
The gun show loophole allows for every attendee of a gun show to purchase a gun without going through a background check as long as they can find a private seller to purchase from.
I actually think this might be better be described as a private seller to private purchaser loophole. The purchase does not have to happen at a gun show. It is just that at gun shows transactions take place where the seller surrenders ownership of the weapon to purchasers of questionable background purely based on economics. Who is willing to pay the highest price and even if you are a criminal you wind up winning and getting the weapon you desire?
Say it isn’t so. If you have reason to fear a background check where would you go to buy weapons?
Will White,
The “gun show loophole” refers to the fact that unlicensed, private sellers are not required to perform a background check on buyers before completing the transaction to sell a firearm. That means that you can go to a gun show and while the Federal Firearms Licensed (FFL) dealers must perform a computer background check on you before completing a sale, an unlicensed collector or other private individual can sell you a gun without determining if you are a felon, former mental patient, someone under a restraining order, or otherwise disqualified from owning a gun.
Presumably, requiring all sellers at a gun show to obtain a background check would limit sales to prohibited persons. Most, if not all, gun shows offer computer connections where sellers can perform instant background checks.
However, this would not affect private sales outside of a gun show, anymore than you have to have an auto dealers license to sell your car to another person or have a business license to conduct a garage sale.
And, of course, nothing prevents the most common way of prohibited persons from obtaining guns–the straw buyer. This is where a prohibited person simply gives a qualified buyer, such as a girlfriend or relative or friend, the money to buy a gun in a gun store and give it to them.
Closing the “gun show loophole” garnered a great deal of attention and publicity following the Virginia Tech murders, despite the fact that Cho Seung-Hui legally purchased his handguns in a gun store after passing a background check. Although he had received court-ordered treatment for a mental disorder, he had never been committed to in-patient treatment and therefore was not reportable as a prohibited person. That loophole has since been closed and any person who receives court-ordered mental treatment, in-patient or out-patient, is now reportable.
So really it isn’t a gun show loophole now ? Maybe instead of trying to stop something that doesn’t exist a law could be put in place to stop individuals from selling guns at gun shows.
Will White,
I can think of half a dozen Constitutional problems with that and what purpose would it serve? Is there any difference between walking into a gun show and conducting a private transaction and doing it via Craig’s List or any other classified service? And, how would that solve the problem of straw buyers which, many believe, is the principal source of guns for prohibited persons?
(Yeah, I know. Selling weapons is prohibited on Craig’s List. And you can’t find a hooker there, either.)
I just don’t see how it can be called a gunshow loop hole.
LittleDavid
Should we have background checks for things like voting and free speech and being a minister? Civil Liberties are at the heart of the bill of rights and we cannot abandon them.
What we’re seeing is more families of victims being trotted out by the left.
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