The Fighting Ninth once more
By D.J. McGuire | Tuesday, October 26th, 2010 | Politics
I must confess, I didn’t think Morgan Griffith could beat Rick Boucher this year. The Ninth Congressional District doesn’t change representation often (although Boucher has been in place for nearly three decades), and Boucher seemed to get his message out first (although I must confess I have not spent any time in the Ninth, so it was all appearance from far away).
Well, Survey USA says it’s on:
A dramatic reversal of fortune in Virginia’s 9th Congressional District, where Republican challenger Morgan Griffith appears to have awoken after 3 months of polling at 40% and today, 7 days until votes are counted, vaults into a tie with incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher, who had been sailing to a 16th term.
In a SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, it’s Griffith 47%, Boucher 46%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Griffith’s lead may or may not be statistically significant; the contest should be reported as even.
SUSA says Griffith draws even because voters particularly keyed on this election are breaking almost 2 to 1 in his favor.
Here’s the kicker: about two weeks ago, SUSA had Boucher up 10 points in this race. Naturally, a movement this big sends one to the crosstabs. Well, every category’s changes are within the margin of error (meaning it could all be white noise), but three jump out:
- Age: using 50 as the dividing line, the new poll shifts 4% more for the under. That helps Griffith because younger voters are backing him – although amng the 35-49 crowd the numbers went from Boucher +2 to Griffith +17
- Party ID: Amazingly, Griffith picked up 11 points on Boucher with a sample 3% less Republican than the 10/14 version (the Democrats were 1% higher than in 10/14)
- Abortion: Wow. From 10/14 to current, the sample shifted 3% away from pro-lifers, yet Griffith still went from -10 to +1 overall
In other words, this is a genuine shift. Griffith has gotten traction, and has victory in his sights.
For the first time in years, it’s the Fighting Ninth again.
Tags:
Contribute for Conservatism!
Share this post
About the author
Former candidate for Board of Supervisors in Spotsylvania, current blogger, economics teacher, and long-rumored windbag. There are two causes closest to the heart: steering the country away from the social democratic nonsense that is sinking Europe, and convincing the rest of the "rightosphere" that the NBA really is a joy to watch.
Comments
4 Responses to "The Fighting Ninth once more"
[...] The Fighting Ninth once more : Bearing Drift: Virginia Politics On Demand says: October 26, 2010 at 12:14 pm [...]
This just confirms the NRCC poll which has the race tied and it confirms what is showing up in both campaigns’ internal polling. Anyone wondering why Boucher just spent a bunch of money to run a new negative ad the last week of the campaign? These polls are your answer.
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Bearing Drift, Malone Labe. Malone Labe said: RT @bearingdrift: Web: The Fighting Ninth once more http://bit.ly/cNwClg [...]
Except for a few years lived in NOVA, I’ve lived all my life in the Ninth.Boucher has gotten away with portraying himself as a Blue Dog for so long that when anyone points out otherwise it is automatically labeled a negative attack. Boucher is so accustomed to having an opponent so poorly recognized and so poorly organized that there is virtually no need for him to campaign. Even with the disparity in fundraising between Griffith and Boucher, there is so much more attention being paid to the Ninth that soft money is playing a much more prevalent role than in previous campaigns.
Having said all that, I recognize that 2010 is shaping up to be a perfect storm for the GOP and for Morgan Griffith. I strongly feel that even with Cecil Roberts and the UMWA thugs supporting Boucher(which proves the UMWA does NOT care about its members), the average coal miner is starting to put 2 and 2 together about Boucher’s vote on cap and trade.
Leave your response
The comments section is for meaningful discussion. Readers are reminded to post comments that are germane to the article and write in a common language that steers clear of personal attacks and/or vulgarities.
Please take a moment to review our comment policy.