I must confess, I didn’t think Morgan Griffith could beat Rick Boucher this year. The Ninth Congressional District doesn’t change representation often (although Boucher has been in place for nearly three decades), and Boucher seemed to get his message out first (although I must confess I have not spent any time in the Ninth, so it was all appearance from far away).
Well, Survey USA says it’s on:
A dramatic reversal of fortune in Virginia’s 9th Congressional District, where Republican challenger Morgan Griffith appears to have awoken after 3 months of polling at 40% and today, 7 days until votes are counted, vaults into a tie with incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher, who had been sailing to a 16th term.
In a SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, it’s Griffith 47%, Boucher 46%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Griffith’s lead may or may not be statistically significant; the contest should be reported as even.
SUSA says Griffith draws even because voters particularly keyed on this election are breaking almost 2 to 1 in his favor.
Here’s the kicker: about two weeks ago, SUSA had Boucher up 10 points in this race. Naturally, a movement this big sends one to the crosstabs. Well, every category’s changes are within the margin of error (meaning it could all be white noise), but three jump out:
- Age: using 50 as the dividing line, the new poll shifts 4% more for the under. That helps Griffith because younger voters are backing him – although amng the 35-49 crowd the numbers went from Boucher +2 to Griffith +17
- Party ID: Amazingly, Griffith picked up 11 points on Boucher with a sample 3% less Republican than the 10/14 version (the Democrats were 1% higher than in 10/14)
- Abortion: Wow. From 10/14 to current, the sample shifted 3% away from pro-lifers, yet Griffith still went from -10 to +1 overall
In other words, this is a genuine shift. Griffith has gotten traction, and has victory in his sights.
For the first time in years, it’s the Fighting Ninth again.
