Rigell and Nye neck-and-neck in latest poll; Golden at 5%Politics

WVEC has released a poll conducted by Christopher Newport University professor Dr. Quentin Kidd which shows Scott Rigell barely leading Glenn Nye 41.5% to 41%. Over 12% of the electorate remains undecided.

This is still bad news for the incumbent who has consistently polled at or below approximately 40%. The poll surveyed over 400 voters and was conducted over the period Oct. 15-21.

Kenny Golden, the independent, is polling at 5%. He said that he would drop out of the race if he was not over 10%. However, at this point, I’m not certain whether he stays in the race or not will have much impact. In fact, it could be helping Rigell as disaffected Nye voters see Golden as the alternative.

WVEC conducted a live chat with Dr. Kidd.

Bearing Drift has set up a poll to be conducted in the 2nd District with the University of Georgia, but it costs $3000. If you are interested in helping fund this poll, contact me today at jr@bearingdrift.com.

  • Ron

    There is no such thing as a scientific poll conducted over 7 days. Most public opinion polls are conducted over 2 days. I never trust these university or college polls because this is not their specialty. Quinnipiac is a different story because this is, evidently, what they do. Who were the phoners? College students? Where did they get their sample of voters to call? What is their turnout model? Too many unknowns.

    JR is right however – Nye can’t seem to break 41% and that is with the sample probably at 20% African American (the census number). There’s no way 1 in 5 voters will be black on election day in VA-2. African Americans have no reason to go vote for Glenn Nye. The traitor.

  • Bryan Stuart

    WHERE ARE ALL THE GOLDEN KOOL-AID DRINKERS? Where are they deriding any poll that has them at 5% or less as “inaccurate” or a “push poll”.

    Face it, in 8 short days Kenny Golden will be humiliated and a footnote in local political history. he has been so ill served by his “advisers” who have whispered sweet nothings in his ears that he had a chance to “make history.” The difference is that Golden will be stuck paying off all of his campaign debt, and they get to go home and not deal with the consequences of providing a good man such poor advise.

  • http://www.advrider.com James “turbo” Cohen

    Bryan Stuart, shame on you. Your comments are an embarrassment to conservative republicans who can tell the difference between Kenny and Scott. Your insults are unwarranted!

    Kenny Golden is blessed to have a few proud dedicated people pulling for him who gave generously of their time and material to promote a great man of integrity. If he had the deep pockets of Rigell or Nye he still would have run a positive campaign on the issues, much like Bill DeSteph has, without personally attacking his political opponent/friends who he has treated honorably and with respect on the airwaves and at public functions. I gave the limit and if Kenny ran again I would support him again. So rare is it that people with distinguished careers approach retirement age and seek public office. This is a great lost opportunity for conservatives this election cycle som may say but a lot or true conservatives have seen their friend Kenny Golden do something they could not see while he served a VERY effective term as chairman.. Kenny Golden gets it, he knows what the problem is in DC and he has the maturity and integrity to do what is right. I hope his friends rally around him to run in the future, if he will run. Kenny Golden for Senate 2012 anyone?

  • Brian Kirwin

    Turbo’s nice way to avoid the question. Another 5%. An independent poll. Still think it’s a 3-way tie?

  • John Harvie

    James,

    Ditto!!!

  • http://bearingdrift.com J.R. Hoeft

    Karen Hurd of the Hampton Roads Tea Party has sent out a release asking Golden to drop out of the race. I’ll update the post with the text of the press release soon.

  • Jay D

    @ Ron – “…. interviews were conducted by the Virginia Tech Center for Survey Research. Both the landline and cell phone samples were provided by ASDE. Interviews were conducted in English. “ It appears Va. Tech Center is fairly well-versed and experienced with polling and your ‘fears’ are misplaced? http://www.csr.vt.edu/index.html

    @JR – I heard Rigell spout the same last night (41% = not good for incumbent). Other than being the latest Rigell camp talking point, where does that analysis come from? (This is an honest question, not a ‘dig’.)

    @ Brian – pretty hypocritical to throw rocks at Turbo whilst remaining non-responsive to my questions.

    Worth noting:

    1) CNU is first (and only) poll to release methodology and questionnaire.
    2) CNU is the second poll (not bought/paid for by Rigell) indicating the race is a dead heat.
    3) CNU is only poll to include cell phones.

    Comparison of Hill (early Oct. poll) to CNU/WVEC/Pilot (Oct 15-21) poll numbers seem to suggest that Nye is gaining support; Rigell remains fairly flat.

    Rigell – Hill (42%)/ CNU (41.5%)
    Nye – Hill (36%) / CNU 41%
    Undecided – Hill (19%) / CNU (12%)

    Data appears to suggest Undecideds are moving towards Blue-Dog Democrat Glenn Nye.

  • Jay D

    - Ms. Hurd promotes her organization as “Fiercely non-partisan”.
    - Wonder what the Anyone-But-Rigell contingent will think of this move.
    - Perhaps it’s time for membership review of Ms. Hurd’s HRTP actions vis-à-vis compatibility w/ organization’s mission statement?

  • Steve Vaughan

    As in the 5th, the more significant data than that the race is closing, is that you have incumbents who can’t break 45% a week before Election Day.

  • D.J. Spiker

    Any poll that has Obama voters at 44% is largely irrelevant. Kidd knows better than to post a poll like this.

    If you think Obama voters are coming out at 44%, you also think Kenny Golden is within 5 point of Glenn Nye, more then likely.

    The 2nd went for Bob McDonnell 62%/38%

    Granted, Nye is a much better candidate than Creigh Deeds, but this race is not a 1/2 point apart. This is hype to drum up attention to an otherwise open and shut race.

    $20 bets for anyone who wants to take Nye on Tuesday.

  • Bryan Stuart

    My understanding is if an incumbent is below 50% in a poll, they are in trouble. If an incubment is below 45% they are in REAL danger. In this case, the incubment is at 41%, in a poll that has a sample size with Obama presidential voters turning out at the same rate as McCain presidential voters.

    I have a sneaky suspicion that is NOT going to be the case.

  • http://bearingdrift.com Brian Kirwin

    JD,

    I, like many others, don’t read many of your comments. What was your question?

  • Jay D

    I just read Hurd’s full statement. What a joke! And clearly representative of why the local ORGANIZATION does not engender greater support in Tidewater. There are many in Hampton Roads that align philosophically with the Tea Party, but choose not to follow (or align with) a weak, unimpressive, not credible, one-issue-litmus-test (audit the Fed) “leader”. Directly from Hurd’s statement: “The Second District Congressional race is ground zero.  It could come down to this one seat … Rigell has pledged to the residents of the second district to fight for the audit of the Federal Reserve, to not raise taxes, to protect our national sovereignty, and to fight for the first principles that our nation was founded on.”

    Ms. Hurd- D2 is NOT ground zero and it WILL NOT come down to one seat ~ at least according to EVERY other poll, projection, and political pundit. The numbers vary, but outcome projections are fairly consistent with an approx. net of 58, yielding a house make up of: 237 Republicans and 198 Democrats. Why use bogus scare tactics, completely grounded in falsehood? Do you believe your members are stupid and uninformed?

    The VBRP did squat for Kenny – pressure on Golden to quit the race “for the good of the party; a.k.a. Scott Rigell” is unfair, HIGHLY partisan, and frankly … un-American. Perhaps you should consider a step aside, for “the good of” the HRTP?

  • Jay D

    @Brian Kirwin – yeah, right. But OK, I’ll bite – why don’t you read my posts? I’m a registered Republican with a simple difference of opinion, believing that to earn credibility as the party most capable of DC House clean-up, we must clean up our own house first, with the first step being honesty amongst ourselves. Yes, unlike other BD posters, I choose to do my own, independent research rather than swallow hook, line & sinker the ‘party line’ or campaign hack generated PR that pretends to be news. You’ve read my posts; and choose not to engage. Fair ’nuff.

    But humor me, this one time? Where does your “understanding [is] if an incumbent is below 50% in a poll, they are in trouble” come from? I would like to know – is this a statistically measured fact, or one of those pseudo-facts we toss out, when it suits our argument?

    My, you ARE a snarky little man when challenged!

  • http://www.hrteaparty.com:200/ James Hawkins

    Posted by Karen Miner Hurd on October 26th, 2010

    “The Hampton Roads Tea Party is calling for Kenny Golden to drop from the 2nd District Congressional race effective immediately. The Hampton Roads Tea Party respects Kenny Golden’s service to our country and we know that he loves this nation. We know that he wants to stop the Obama agenda. Golden has said that if he is below 10% in the polls by September that he would withdraw from the race. Poll after poll shows that Golden is at 5% at best, well below the 10% he said was his threshold as a viable candidate. It is now clear that a vote for Kenny Golden is a vote for the Obama-Reid –Pelosi agenda.”

    Not quite like the comment Democrat Frank Caprio made concerning Obama.

  • http://bearingdrift.com Brian Kirwin

    Jay D, what state do you vote in?

    If you are a “registered Republican,” it ain’t Virginia, since Virginia doesn’t allow registration by Party.

    And humor me, next time ask me to justify what I write, not a comment by someone named “Bryan” – that’s not me.

  • D.J. Spiker

    Jay D,

    Why would the VBRP help Kenny? They’re um, Republicans. Unless you meant the HRTP.

    And asking Golden to keep his word isn’t too crazy of an idea, regardless how strongly you disagree

  • Jay D

    Brian – Mea culpa on both counts – mistakenly merged Brians and used the term ‘registered Republican’ too loosely. I was a ‘registered’ Republican in CA, but have only VOTED Republican (unless you count pulling lever for Obama in the democratic presidential primary) since returning to VA decades ago. Now that you have my apology and error admission … my questions are:
    I, like many others, don’t read many of your comments.
    -Why don’t you read my comments?
    -More here:
    http://bearingdrift.com/2010/10/24/virginian-pilot-endorses-scott-rigell/
    -And here:
    http://bearingdrift.com/2010/10/22/glenn-nyes-offensive-push-backfires-disastrously/

    Not really expecting an answer or honest dialogue from either you or DJ (who also is non-responsive). The Rigell strategy must be non-engagement, to avoid any more slippage before E-day.

  • Jay D

    DJ – well, I’m wrong again – you ARE here!

    The VBRP did squat for Kenny – refers to primary sludge – the VBRP asked Kenny to hold off announcing his candidacy, with a (implied or actual – who knows?) promise of support, if he would be a good party soldier and wait.

    As I recall, it was the VBRP’s broken promise that catapulted Kenny to leave the party and run as an independent. This is old news, but it’s the basis for my comment. Screw me once, shame on you. Screw me twice – shame on me!

  • Brian Kirwin

    Why don’t I read your comments? Life is too short to spend reading “blah blah blah”

    and if you think i’m going to follow links to find more questions, you R crazy

  • Mike Barrett

    I guess the republican machine that installed Mr. Rigell as the chosen one is now feeling the down side of a coronation versus a real primary. Denying the party apparatus to all but Rigell was a power play, and his failure to garner even 39% of the vote ought to have sent a message. But of course, the evangelical crowd never gets the message from other citizens because they know they are right. Problem is, others don’t always agree, and those who were wronged, like Golden, have friends who agree with him. I think Golden will inherit the votes of many who now realize that moderate turned ultra conservative Rigell is a trick pony, that Nye will win, and they had better sent the message loud and clear that this is no way to run a party.

  • D.J. Spiker

    Jay D,

    You’re wrong, unfortunately, and Kenny will tell you the same. Bob McDonnell asked Kenny to wait until after the 2009 elections to step down and run, not the VBRP. Kenny gave him his word, and kept it. That three or four month delay hurt Kenny. There was no broken promise, or agreement of support in exchange.

  • Steve Vaughan

    JR: You don’t need one. You’re Boss Tweed.

  • Jay D

    @ Brian – Let me help you out. Those are links to YOUR authored opinion pieces on Bearing Drift.

    Your response is not surprising and typifies common tactic employed by intellectual lightweights, from all political spheres. When challenged on the facts, and too clumsy or inept to engage or defend ~ change the topic and/or attack your challenger.

  • http://www.hrteaparty.com:200/ James Hawkins

    Rigell has pledged to the residents of the second district to fight for the first principles that our nation was founded on. So that makes him a “ultra conservative” ???
    Perhaps that would make Communist Fidel Castro a moderate??
    Well perhaps yes since moderate Castro claims that Obama is more leftist then he is !!!!

    The Christopher Newport University professor Dr. Quentin Kidd’s poll would seem to the result of a perfect storm in favor of democrats. Or a 51 to 44 win for Rigell. I have been trying to predict what type storm will hit on 11/02/2010. However my tracking data has gone “berserk”. Have no idea why or what it means.

  • Chris Meeropol

    DJ, et al, Gov. McDonnell did not ask me to wait, I volunteered because I felt it was too important to do a good job on all the elections. We squeaked out on Ron but won huge for Bob and the rest. It was worth the wait. Did it cost me, sure but that too was worth the wait. Gov. called when I went independent and told me he was going to endorse Scott as a courtesy for my loyalty to him. Greatly appreciated.
    On the latest poll, same old story except this wasn’t a push as all of Scott have been. The poll we were promised was supposed to be over 1500 polled and was supposed to be over 2 days. Neither happened. If you like the poll believe it. I cannot and will not. I’m in this till the finish and will continue to show up, press forward our ideas and see what the final poll says on the 2nd of November.

  • http://bearingdrift.com Brian Kirwin

    Wow…Chris Meeropol is running for Congress

  • Jay D

    @ DJ- Appreciate the response; I do not pretend to be in-the-know on specifics btw. Kenny and VBRP. Regardless of who said what to whom, there were ‘issues’. Kenny Golden is likely not inclined to do ‘favors’ for the VBRP or Scott Rigell’s campaign.

    That aside, my opinion remains the same. Hurd ‘outed’ herself as a party hack, which will likely not sit too well with rank-and-file members. It’s all about trust & credibility – especially w/in an organization that seeks change to the status quo.

  • http://www.hrteaparty.com:200/ James Hawkins

    Karen Hurd is not a “party hack”. If anyone is a “party hack”, it would be me. I was a “John Warner” Republican at one time. And I might even become a “Scott Rigell” Republican.

  • Bryan Stuart

    @Chris: “1500 polled”????? I don’t know a lot about polling, but I have NEVER seen a poll that has a sample size of 1500 people.

    The Golden campaign always has an excuse for something. Campaign has no money? It’s because the EVIL GOP establishment shut them out. (Never discussing the fact that Bert Mizusawa raised a boatload of cash without any major GOP endorsements).

    Campaign has no support? It really does, the press just won’t coverage the LEGION of Golden supporters.

    Campaign can’t break 5% in a single poll? The poll is always bias, a push poll, not accurate, not a big enough sample, etc.etc.

  • http://www.bearingdrift.com D.J. Spiker

    Bryan, @chris is actually @kenny

  • J.M. Ripley

    I have received two negative mailings this week from the DCCC. This is strange for two reasons. 1. I have never in my adult life received any mailing from a democratic campaign or party since my entire voting history has been Republican. 2. They both were negative pieces against Kenny Golden.

    Wonder why the DCCC is running negative mailing against Kenny Golden who for the most part has been running 5% in polls. Strange, very strange.

  • Jay D

    @Brian Stuart – link (courtesy of Vivian Page’s blog) which you may find interesting:
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/11/incumbents-polling-below-50-often-win-re-election-despite-conventional-wisdom/

  • itson

    reading these postes 6 days out makes me wonder why so called rep/con or still not coming together to win this race mr golden could not win the primary and will not win the election all he can do is make the race close and best he can do is win for nye mr golden is and upright guy and should drop out and endorse Rigell i seem to think we have a trojan horse in this post i think talking points end up here every day

  • Bryan Stuart

    If @chris is @ Kenny, if that really is Kenny Golden, he sounds like a defeated, and slightly delusional, man.

    Just pathetic.

  • Kempsville Conservative

    Chris Meeropol has revealed to us all why he, rather Kenny Golden, should never be congressman. UNBELIEVABLE!

    It’s like a bad joke.

  • http://www.advrider.com James “turbo” Cohen

    Chris Meeropol’s PC is Chris’s. He handed Kenny his notebook and Kenny responded. I see no foul play. If you need for me to prove I point the next time Chris drops by to put out more signs I will post something.. And if you want I can post something and make it look like Kenny.

    Yall need to lighten up. Kenny hit submit comment without changing the BD reply name that automatically gets listed. Big F’ing deal.

  • Tyler G. Spires

    Dj as usual Im sure that your more of an expert that Quinten kidd.

  • M. Hardy

    I am pragmatic about this. I have remained undecided because I was hoping that Golden would do much better.
    (I am an independent because the republican party stopped fighting for what was right. When they threw Judge Roy Moore and Trent Lott under the bus because it was not politically correct to fight for the ten commandments or being perceived to look racist (as in Lotts case) I knew the republican party lost the will to fight for values. Instead they consistently allow the Democrats push their radical values on us and do nothing. They are so afraid of being called racist, or anti-gay–which means you are for natural rights and what is right by nature. The earth was not populated by homosexuality! No brainer here! Why do nothing? Because their own power is more important than principle and what is right.)
    However the polls do show a trend and 5% would tell you that he will not win. I have some concerns about Rigel but will definitely support him over Nye. I will tell you one thing: My circle of friends do not believe the ole “I gave to Obama’s campaign” because I was an anti Hillary vote. Most see it as “Covering my bases” in case OBAMA gets elected. A business decision. Hopefully if Rigell gets elected he will stand on principles and fight for conservative values.

  • Jay D

    And … here it comes. Don’t scream at me – I’m just the messenger. Scott’s stupid U-Haul ads ran heavily in the primary. You Rigellites knew it was hogwash – as did the Anyone-But-Rigell primary candidates and supporters. Questions regarding Scott’s bio. were regularly shouted down/suppressed by expertly coordinated blasts, attacks, and rebukes from Rigell’s campaign staff and paid “volunteers”.

    So, deal with it, and don’t blame the press, the DNC, (or the rest of us) if Scott looses more support …when this little ditty moves mainstream this afternoon.
    http://www.dailypress.com/news/politics/dp-nws-rigell-father-in-law-20101026,0,2009836.story

  • itson

    Jay did your father help you did he support you help you with school give you info too help you my dad did every thing he could and at his advance age is still there i am proud of my kids and will help in any way i can rigells in laws helped that’s the AMERICAN WAY sorry you don’t see it that way

  • http://www.advrider.com James “turbo” Cohen

    This was a good night. All 3 got their lines in but Kenny took the house downtalking about rich guys visiting Israel.
    http://www.youtube.com/user/Virginia2RawFootage

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