Rigell rolling towards Election Day
By JR Hoeft | Thursday, October 21st, 2010 | PoliticsIf the last six months are any indication of future results, Scott Rigell will be your next Congressman from Virginia’s Second Congressional District.
Yet another poll has been released today that shows Rigell with a lead. Public Opinion Strategies has Rigell over Nye 46-41%.
According to a Rigell release, the Republican has “a nine point advantage with self-described Independent voters.”
This continues a trend that began back in June.
The June 17 POS poll showed: 41-35% Rigell over Nye with Kenny Golden polling 4%
In September, as we reported here on BD, POS showed: 42-35% (45%-40% with leaners) with Kenny Golden polling at 5%
Also, a poll conducted in September by Ayers McHenry and Associates had Rigell up 45-40%.
Then, in early October, “The Hill” ran a poll that showed Rigell also up 6 points.
Rigell, with mere days left in the election, continues to sustain a 5-6 point lead over the incumbent Nye – a lead he has sustained since June.
Combine this data, where Nye consistently barely breaks 40%, with a new, powerful, positive ad now airing in the 2nd for Rigell (see above) – where family and service is very important, it’s going to be very difficult for Nye to convince 5% of the electorate or more that he’s the right man to return to Washington.
Tags:
Contribute for Conservatism!
Share this post
About the author
Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
We're 75% there! Thank you to everyone who has so far contributed! Just $2000 to go!
Comments
12 Responses to "Rigell rolling towards Election Day"
Wow, I love this positive new ad from Scott Rigell! You can just see Rigell’s sincerity! He is going to be a great congressman – proactive, instead of reactive like our incumbent who can’t even be bothered to meet the people he is supposed to represent.
I’m also thrilled to see these polling numbers. It just shows that the people of the Second District are not fooled by the ridiculous negative attacks that have been launched by the Democrats lately. They should stick to the issues! Jobs and the economy! Oh wait, Glenn Nye doesn’t want to talk about that because then he would have to admit that he has been a part of getting us to where we are today….10% unemployment nationally and in Norfolk and trillions more debt. No thanks! It’s time to elect Scott Rigell!!
So is Rigell a marine as well or does that “3rd generation” not include him?
That includes him.
If Lifelong Elephant was close to accurate “– the guy worked in a Marine Corps reserve motor pool for a handful of years, never deployed anywhere outside the US and never received a single significant award or decoration for his not-so-distinguished service. … the new ad? What a crock! If not accurate, please do correct.
Regarding the poll results (exclusive of campaign push polls), let me repeat a previous post:
According to the The Hill poll info (the only independent poll):
- Margin of error is + or – 4.9%.
- 26 percent of independents say they are undecided.
- The poll did not include Kenny Golden.
http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-anga-poll-week1/122857-district-by-district-virginia
Shad Plank’s reporting adds the following to the data:
Poll sample included:
- 96 Democrats
- 130 Republicans
- 155 Independents
http://hrblogs.typepad.com/the_shad_plank/2010/10/new-independent-poll-gives-rigell-six-point-lead-over-nye-.html
Add in the inherent bias landline-only (most polls) lend to the numbers …
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1761/cell-phones-and-election-polls-2010-midterm-elections
My analysis: Between the margin of error, the heavier weight of Republican respondents (35% more R than D polled), the cell phone (and caller ID) challenges …. this race is a statistical dead heat and the Golden factor remains an unknown.
BTW – is there anyone else out there who is aware Glenn Nye is one of the original co-sponsors and strong supporter of H.J.Res. 78, a balanced budget amendment that is almost identical H.J.RES.1.IH, a bill co-sponsored by Randy Forbes?
[...] a desperate move to turn around five straight polls showing Republican challenger Scott Rigell in the lead, Glenn Nye this week moved to take the offensive. On Monday, in a clear collaboration with Blue [...]
EXCELLENT AD. I think we an clearly count VA-2 in the GOP column on Nov. 2nd. I wish I could say the same for the 5th. Living in the VA-1 and happy as a clam with Rob Wittman, I only wish I could vote in VA-2 and VA-5.
With Dish network, I am in the Richmond media market in which Periolli has been running a non-stop negative campaign attack against Hurt. Don’t really see how the Richmond media market effects this race, but I’ll have to hand it to them, they are highly effective in terms of driving up negatives. You’d think Periello is running as a Republican here.
Rigell clearly has the momentum going for him here. Glad the voters are the 2nd District are going to send a proven job-creator to Congress. That Team Rigell works harder than anyone I’ve ever seen and it looks like their work will pay dividends November 2.
CQ Politics ~ Rigell/Nye race ~ TOSSUP category.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5
After losing this military-heavy district in the Democratic wave of 2008, Republicans are keen on putting it back in their column. But it’s difficult for Republicans to portray Nye as in lock step with party leaders because his voting record is among the most conservative in the Democratic Caucus.
Republicans are hitting Nye for his vote for the stimulus bill. But that line of attack is complicated since car dealer Scott Rigell’s dealership sold more than 100 cars under the Cash for Clunkers program that was largely funded by the stimulus.
Rigell’s combination of solid fundraising and personal wealth (he’s put about $1 million of his own money into the race) assures that the Republican will have all the resources he needs.
Nye, a proven fundraiser during his first term, is emphasizing his record of tending to the concerns of military personnel, veterans and their families as a member of the Armed Services Committee.
Another plus for the Congressman is the presence on the November ballot of another Republican, Kenny Golden, the former chairman of the Republican Party in Virginia Beach. Golden is running as an Independent after leaving the party earlier this summer because he felt the primary had been stacked by party leaders to elect Rigell. Golden has the potential to siphon some votes from Rigell, which could be significant in a race as tight as this one is expected to be.
[...] is still bad news for the incumbent who has consistently polled at or below approximately 40%. The poll surveyed over 400 voters and was conducted over the period Oct. [...]
Larry J. Sabato’s final predictions are in. He predicts a gain of 55 seats in the house and 8 in the senate.
I predict this will likely come out better than any are predicting. We don’t want to jinx it when you’re overly optimistic and the media desire to lower our expectations so that they can suppress the vote.
Leave your response