The Roanoke College Poll: Hurt 46 Perriello 40 Clark 1
By Shaun Kenney | Monday, October 18th, 2010 | Politics…but with a twist. Men are siding with Hurt 52-31% while women are supporting Perriello 48-40% — the first poll to show Perriello leading in that demographic.
The Roanoke College Poll also shows that “very likely voters” give Hurt a 10 point lead over Perriello, 49-39 and with a 4.5% margin of error. This also throws about five buckets of cold water on the Survey USA polls and methodology, as not a single independent poll has confirmed SUSA’s numbers in VA-05.
A couple of other interesting items:
* Independents break for Hurt 44-35%, but moderates break for Perriello 56-31% — the first time since the polls have begun.
* The NRA endorsement had little to no impact at all.
* Most respondents indicated Perriello is likely to run a negative campaign in the next few weeks.
* McDonnell has a 60% approval rating, while Obama stands at 34%.
The only item that really baffles me in this poll is the 13% undecided. Should they break traditionally 2:1 in favor of the challenger, the question remains “Who is running the challenger’s race right now?”
All outside appearances lead one to believe that Perriello has that advantage. The poll indicates this, as 19% of Us are breaking Perriello, while 16% break Hurt. Should this break 2:1, Perriello is very much on his way to closing the gap — and well within the 4.1 MoE on the poll.
Here’s another kicker: Democrats were very much undersampled on the poll. How bad? On a typical R/D/I split, it shouldn’t be 164/180/139 — though they could be oversampling on the Rs to indicate an enthusiasm gap. An0ther point of interest? 18-34 year olds represented 37 respondents. 35-49 year olds? 120.
Unfortunately, the poll doesn’t break down into regions… so whether all of these respondents were polled in the Hurt-friendly southern part of the district, or the more Perriello-leaning Charlottesville area — we simply don’t know. The questions are a bit tilted too… someone clearly wanted to know more about Hurt’s demographics than Perriello’s (which naturally helps Perriello — nice job, Roanoke College).
Nonetheless, the poll feels about right… Hurt is still up by 2-6 points with a 4pt MoE. Perriello has covered a lot of ground and may have a ton of cash, but does he have the horses to get him to a second term? With 13% of the district undecided… that may well be the case.
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Shaun Kenney is the Chairman of the Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors, former Communications Director for the Republican Party of Virginia, and an active blogger since 2002. Shaun lives in Thomas Jefferson's backyard with his wife, six children, and a modest attempt at a farm in Kents Store, Virginia.
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4 Responses to "The Roanoke College Poll: Hurt 46 Perriello 40 Clark 1"
well, let’s talk about the 13% undecided. Alot of them won’t vote unless they are moved to go to the polls that day because there is local election.
(yeah, I know the respondents said they are “likely voters”).
I’d say this analysis is accurate. While we aren’t able to see the regional breakdown, it’s pretty clear that this election is going to be decided by three things: 1.) U.Va. turnout, 2.) African-American turnout and 3.) Fluvana, Greene, and Nelson (localities that Periello performed a little better than expected in 08).
I think Hurt’s voters are set. They are going to vote and they’re not going to change their minds. Hurt is banking on anti-Obama turnout. It may work, but I don’t see any upside for him at this point. That’s really been his only theme, so he’s got nothing else to persuade voters. People have decided how they feel about Obama by this point. Anyone who is still making up their mind on whether to vote or not is probably going to vote for Periello.
I think Kelley is correct in her question of whether this undecided bloc votes or not. For each one that does, it probably means Periello gets closer and closer to Hurt. For each one that doesn’t, it means Robert Hurt is going to Congress.
I voted for Perriello last time but will stay home this time. I want to vote for Robert Hurt, but just can’t bring myself to do it, regardless of how wrong I was about TP.
Staying at home is the same thing as voting for Robert Hurt. It’s only been two years since 2008 and for a new congressman that’s hardly anytime when you consider he had to get his office organized and then start campaigning for 2010. ‘Staying Home’ consider heading out to the polls and help us give Tom Perriello two more years. There’s lots of work to do and I believe that given the chance Perriello will do an amazing job!
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