…but with a twist. Men are siding with Hurt 52-31% while women are supporting Perriello 48-40% — the first poll to show Perriello leading in that demographic.
The Roanoke College Poll also shows that “very likely voters” give Hurt a 10 point lead over Perriello, 49-39 and with a 4.5% margin of error. This also throws about five buckets of cold water on the Survey USA polls and methodology, as not a single independent poll has confirmed SUSA’s numbers in VA-05.
A couple of other interesting items:
* Independents break for Hurt 44-35%, but moderates break for Perriello 56-31% — the first time since the polls have begun.
* The NRA endorsement had little to no impact at all.
* Most respondents indicated Perriello is likely to run a negative campaign in the next few weeks.
* McDonnell has a 60% approval rating, while Obama stands at 34%.
The only item that really baffles me in this poll is the 13% undecided. Should they break traditionally 2:1 in favor of the challenger, the question remains “Who is running the challenger’s race right now?”
All outside appearances lead one to believe that Perriello has that advantage. The poll indicates this, as 19% of Us are breaking Perriello, while 16% break Hurt. Should this break 2:1, Perriello is very much on his way to closing the gap — and well within the 4.1 MoE on the poll.
Here’s another kicker: Democrats were very much undersampled on the poll. How bad? On a typical R/D/I split, it shouldn’t be 164/180/139 — though they could be oversampling on the Rs to indicate an enthusiasm gap. An0ther point of interest? 18-34 year olds represented 37 respondents. 35-49 year olds? 120.
Unfortunately, the poll doesn’t break down into regions… so whether all of these respondents were polled in the Hurt-friendly southern part of the district, or the more Perriello-leaning Charlottesville area — we simply don’t know. The questions are a bit tilted too… someone clearly wanted to know more about Hurt’s demographics than Perriello’s (which naturally helps Perriello — nice job, Roanoke College).
Nonetheless, the poll feels about right… Hurt is still up by 2-6 points with a 4pt MoE. Perriello has covered a lot of ground and may have a ton of cash, but does he have the horses to get him to a second term? With 13% of the district undecided… that may well be the case.
