Time to Panic in VA-05?
By Shaun Kenney | Tuesday, October 12th, 2010 | PoliticsIn case you haven’t read this already, Robert Hurt is in a 12 point freefall in Virginia’s 5th District against incumbent Congressman Tom Perriello, with the point spread 52-41 with conservative independent Jeff Clark garnering 4% of the vote.
Just for comparison purposes, it’s worth noting that former Congressman Virgil Goode posted similar double-digit numbers according to Survey USA in 2008, only to find himself in a freefall as well.
How scary are the parallels? While today, Hurt finds himself with a supposed 11-point lead, Goode in 2008 was pegged at a 13-point lead, only to eventually lose the 5th district by a little more than 700 votes.
Making matters worse, while Hurt did outraise Perriello ($900K to $810K), the candidates cash on hand differential means that Perriello can continue the momentum. Insiders estimate that Hurt’s COH will be in the neighborhood of $500K, while Perriello has a whopping $1.3 million left in the bank — a near 3:1 advantage.
With outside groups such as Americans for Prosperity (AFP) being matched dollar for dollar by groups such as the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), it’s difficult to argue that outside cash will not simply bounce off one another. Same is true for NRCC and DCCC cash — no real differential, no haymakers.
Hurt and Perriello still have a series of debates to walk through. But it has been Perriello that, so far, has successfully run a challenger’s race against “10 years of Senator Hurt” as the TV ads go. This, coupled with the fact Perriello is successfully driving home Hurt’s 2004 tax hike vote (one among many tax votes claimed by Camp Perriello) and one has to wonder whether Hurt’s campaign has the afterburners to turn on?
Of course, the smart money is for Hurt to ride his 11-point lead home and hope Perriello peaks on November 15th when it’s too late, rather than the day of the election.
Still, the dynamics, momentum, and money all weigh in Perriello’s favor. Perriello is in familiar territory as an underdog, and while outsiders may be convinced as they were in 2008 that the 5th District is locked up, insiders know better.
So is it time to panic in VA-05?
If you’re a Republican interested in beating Perriello, the answer to that is an emphatic yes. Double digit leads often lead to complacency, and that is precisely where most of the grassroot activists are right now. The fact that VA-05 could very well lose twice to Perriello after holding supposedly double-digit leads should drive activists to volunteer centers and local GOP units.
If you’re a Tea Party activist, you have some decisions to make. Jeff Clark has mentioned his exasperation time and time again about the willingness of ideally small government conservatives to flock to the Hurt battle standard. Should the race come down to where Clark’s conservative following makes or breaks Perriello’s re-election bid, will Clark stand down? At the moment, Clark is in it, though not necessarily to win it. But the prospect of kingmaker is still there, should Clark reflect the statesmanlike qualities of the Founding Fathers rather than their revolutionary strain. That choice is, ultimately Clark’s to make — and I for one will not discourage or encourage him to make what has to be a very private and character-testing decision.
If you’re a socialist Democrat (I keed, I keed…) you have to take courage with these numbers. Perriello is about to shoot the moon once again as virtually everyone with an IQ over 40 is realizing the race is much, much tighter than the “polls” reflected. Of course, SUSA outliers excepted, the race has held fairly steady with Hurt commanding anywhere from a 2 to 6 point lead. Survey USA polling notwithstanding, Perriello has yet to make a serious dent in the numbers of the other polling firms. As SUSA reworks their methodology (and to be honest, all pollsters are in a cell-phone/Facebook era), Perriello knows he has three immediate tasks on hand: (1) work your ass off, (2) drive up Hurt’s negatives, and (3) don’t do anything stupid.
SEIU and Big Labor will take care of #1 for Perriello. Making #2 work for Perriello is going to be a much more difficult task. While the environment has given every reason to fire anything resembling a Democrat, Hurt is failing to make the firebrand’s case that he should replace Perriello, mostly because he is every inch the definition of the old “Virginia gentleman” of a bygone era.
As Perriello tries to prevent Hurt from becoming that replacement, he must make Hurt particularly odious to either hardcore conservatives (which is working to some extent given Clark’s candidacy) and to the traditional saving grace of women moderates. Of course, should he go for the traditional wedge of abortion, Perriello betrays his Catholic inclinations as nominally pro-life but politically pro-abortion Democrat, which could damage his carefully built brand.
So there comes problem #3 for Perriello — don’t do anything stupid. With a line of debates, one can expect Hurt to try to nail “Perri-Jello” to a wall (not my epithet — common in Tea Party circles). Alternatively, we’ll be able to find out what wedge issue Perriello has selected from a quiver of issues against Hurt… and $1.3 million dollars to drive that point home, while Hurt can only fend him off with a fraction of that.
From the outset, I warned that VA-05 was the toughest race in Virginia. No one quite believed it, and from all outside takes perhaps VA-09 is still that race (though personally, I don’t believe SUSA polling there anymore than I believe it in VA-05 — Griffith is much closer and Boucher is in for a shock come election day). Time has proven my analysis correct.
Politics has often been compared to pugilism. In VA-05, we may very well have Hurt on the ropes, struggling to parry off Perriello’s hits in order to win the match by decision. But one wrong punch, one imperfect throw…
Gotta love politics!
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Shaun Kenney is the Chairman of the Fluvanna County Board of Supervisors, former Communications Director for the Republican Party of Virginia, and an active blogger since 2002. Shaun lives in Thomas Jefferson's backyard with his wife, six children, and a modest attempt at a farm in Kents Store, Virginia.
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27 Responses to "Time to Panic in VA-05?"
1st: I sincerely hope you are right that Boucher is in for a big surprise on Election Day. the people of the Fighting Ninth deserve much better than Boucher. Morgan Griffith would serve them well.
2d: Granted, I live in a small vote area of the 5th (Lunenburg Co), but I cannot see the Perriello “wave” here. Perriello has been around trying to buy votes, but no one was buying him. Perriello had a townhall in Kenbridge where he said he would vote to re-elect Nancy Pelosi as Speaker.
Robert Hurt has been here to NRA banquet (& those people are NOT happy with the national NRA); he has been to the local businesses; he has been door to door around the county & has met many people in their homes. People like what they hear from Robert Hurt: get the damn government out of our businesses & out of our lives.
3d: we have been working like we’re 727 votes behind. We’ve been working at this intensity for months.
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Shaun Kenney and Bearing Drift, Robert J. Smith, III. Robert J. Smith, III said: RT @bearingdrift Web: Time to Panic in VA-05? http://bit.ly/bXkGWN || Bobbert "Bring on the" Hurt "to you" in a Goode-esque freefall [...]
Not surprising, though of course disappointing. I hope there are lot more Kelley in Virginia types throughout the district. Periello has been hammering Hurt in the Richmond media market with his very clever “We can’t afford a world of Hurt” ads. I have yet to see a HURT ad. I don’t know how important the Richmond market is to the district, but it must be important enough if Periello is spending all this money in it. Oddly, none of the ads say anything Periello at all, they just drive up Hurt’s negatives (#2 on Shaun’s list). There are two differences between now and 2008: (1) The Obama wave is NOT going to show up to vote and (2) Periello is now the incumbent, and not the challenger. Plus and minus.
Very interesting piece Shaun. You made some very good points and I guess we’ll find out starting Wed. Oct. 13th in the first debate between them to see if Tom has anything left in his gas tanks for Robert. Let’s hope that TP is on fumes and Robert has enough in the reserves to push him over the top the remaining three weeks. It will definitely be one to watch the remaining weeks ahead.
Agreed Craig. I’m not sure how much of the district is encompassed by the Richmond market, but here in the southwest we have been enduring negative Perriello attack ads since late-July/early-August to no avail. Tom Perriello has blamed Sen. Hurt for almost everything except rain on picnics and yet can’t seem to get himself above 40-41 percent.
Granted I live in a heavily Republican area, but I know only a handful of people who are supporting Rep. Perriello. In fact, I know more than a few Democrats who are fed up with Obama, Pelosi and Perriello and are now supporting Sen. Hurt. While anything can happen before November 2nd, I still believe from all of the anecdotal evidence I’m seeing and hearing, the anti-Obama wave is sufficiently high and Perriello has (for many in the 5th) become the poster boy for the president’s failed agenda that I think Sen. Hurt will win. It may be close, but unless we see turnout on the scale of 2008, I think Rep. Perriello’s term in the House is almost over.
Hi, Shaun:
I don’t know if you saw this but I issued a press release last week regarding Jeff Clark. I am expecting a response from him before the end of this week:
JATP Requests Accountability From Jeffrey Clark (I, VA05)
Charlottesville, VA – October 6, 2010
While Americans are divided on which political ideology best serves our country, we have consensus that there is a severe lack of accountability in our elected officials and candidates for public office. Now, more than ever, we must hold their feet to the fire for their words and actions. This duty is one of the chief cornerstones in the foundation of the Jefferson Area Tea Party (JATP).
It is in this duty that we turn our attention to Virginia Fifth Congressional District Independent candidate Jeffrey Clark.
Two days prior to the GOP primary in June, I spoke with Mr. Clark to assess the seriousness of his intent to enter the congressional race if State Senator Robert Hurt won the GOP nomination. Mr. Clark assured me that if he entered the race, he would mount a competitive campaign aimed at winning the election. He emphatically stated he had no intention or desire to become a “third-party spoiler”, and would “step aside from the race” at any point he thought it was unlikely he could win. Mr. Clark restated this position when I called him the day after the GOP primary to confirm his plans following State Senator Hurt’s victory.
Soon after Mr. Clark was certified as a legal candidate, the JATP invited him to speak at its June 24 meeting and issued him further invitations to all of its other proposed and scheduled campaign-related events.
Last week, Mr. Clark informed me that he has yet to amass the financial and volunteer support he deems as necessary to win the election. I reminded him of his previous statement, and asked if he could foresee any substantial change in his circumstances within the short time remaining before the election. He stated that without the exposure and potential support he could gain from participating in the upcoming televised debates, he believes he has no chance of winning.
The Tea Party movement is supportive of the return of citizen legislators as envisioned by our Founding Fathers. It has been particularly gratifying for our organization to honor Mr. Clark’s patriotism by extending him the same fair treatment and equal access to our events we give to major political party candidates.
But the JATP must also be even-handed in calling all candidates to account for what they say and do. As such, we are compelled to hold Mr. Clark accountable for the statement he made in June — just as we held Congressman Perriello accountable for his voting record and issues surrounding the location of his local office, and State Senator Hurt for his refusal to participate in three-way candidate debates.
In the interest of accountability, we respectfully request that Mr. Clark issue a written statement confirming the facts as stated herein, and address his intentions should he fail in his bid for inclusion in the televised debates.
Carole Thorpe
Chairman
Jefferson Area Tea Party, Charlottesville VA
Panic? Really?
I panic when I spill a liquid on my laptop. I don’t panic when I see a poll showing my preferred candidate up by 12 points. We all knew that SUSA has issues with their sample in the summer and then they pull it together in the fall. Reasonable observers (or maybe just me) felt like Hurt was up 10 or so all along, so telling me to panic when we see a poll confirm that figure is a bit ridiculous.
That’s not to say I won’t be out walking door-to-door this weekend. But I won’t be panicking. The only people who should be panicking are those supporting an incumbent who sees a poll showing him down 12 as good news.
craig: Richmond TV market serves Lunenburg, maybe some in Mecklenburg (though alot of them get Raleigh TV), the few 5th District precincts located in Brunswick, some in Prince Edward & Cumberland & Buckingham (but see, Lynchburg might reach into western Prince Edward & C-ville might reach into parts of Buckingham). and this is just based on personal experience–I don’t know the real demographics.
screwy TV market in the 5th.
like Jason, I am seeing dyed-in-the-wool Democrats showing support for Robert Hurt.
this is Robert Hurt’s race to lose.
Shaun, I’ve always agreed that the 5th was going to a toughter nut than many Republicans thought. Much toughter than the 2nd. (don’t agree with your on the 9th).
One thing that Hurt does have going for him is that the Dem national strategy in the closing weeks will be to try to tie the Republican Party to the Tea Party, which polling has pretty consistently shown to have a net negative image with voters.
The presence of Clark in the 5th District race immunizes Hurt from that line of attack.
Freefall? Huh? They simply changed the methodology and have been upfront about doing so. Under the same methodology that put Hurt +23, he’s now +17. That sure ain’t a freefall. All they did was reworked their LV screen to raise black turnout from 12% to 20%. With this new partisanship breakdown and this increased black vote, Hurt +11 is a HUGE lead.
@Steve –
Not sure Perriello is going to go that route. To date, the DCCC has been extremely careful not to paint TP as a Democrat.
Clark’s presence doesn’t immunize a thing. It certainly hurts’ RH’s chances — so everything Perriello can do to either keep him in or up his ID is beneficial to the Dems. Additionally hurts the GOP because it shows prima facie that the Tea Party is not behind Hurt’s candidacy or campaign.
What Hurt does have going for him is that Perriello has to take a hard swing without alienating his base. Hurt’s 2004 tax hike vote is probably that wedge, as the traditional wedges of education and abortion will crack Perriello’s “conservative Democrat” brand at this point.
There’s something else to keep in mind about VA-05 too. Goode first won as a conservative Democrat. The DNA of the district is basically conservative… but leans D. Goode was able to continue winning because he was a familiar face running against some pretty extreme liberals… until Perriello and the “perfect storm” of 2008. Now TP has incumbency, the veneer of being a moderate Dem, and the DNA of a district that — still — is probably more Democratic than Republican. I keep looking at that little pocket of blue towards Charlottesville, Nelson, and Buckingham Counties (even Fluvanna has noticed a D trend over the last six years) and can’t help but thing that they’re just reverting to what they’ve always been…
@Greg –
OK — even a six point drop in two weeks is my definition of freefall.
Compare that to *every other polling outfit* that has worked in VA-05, and even the best polls have Hurt by 6. A six point drop? A 12 point drop? Even if one factors it out, Hurt is still outspent 3:1 COH and coming of anywhere from a 6 to 12 point drop over the last two weeks.
That’s a textbook definition of freefall. And either one puts faith in the SUSA polls and accepts (1) Hurt is still up by 11 and (2) Hurt is in freefall, OR one tosses SUSA aside and Hurt is only up by 2-6 points… and is outspent 3:1 going into the final stretch.
Either way, that’s not good news.
I don’t live in the fifth, but I work in the fifth. Listening to all the negative Perriello ads,having them come up on every website I visit, I am considering moving to the fifth so I can vote AGAINST Mr. Perriello and his baby face self.
shaun: what was % McDonnell v. Deeds? big for McDonnell. and Creigh Deeds represented part of this district (parts of liberal Albemarle); Deeds hadn’t made horrible votes in Congress & he had never ever made such publicized horrible votes as Perriello.
shaun: people are very upset with Perriello.
I am a big fan of Robert Hurt. But I am not naive: alot of Sen. Hurt’s support is coming from the whipped up anti-Perriello/Pelosi/Obama population.
wow: just got a polling call from Century Research. It was the most slanted conversation I’ve had in months–is this push polling?
@kelley: that’s the point — in any challenger’s race, you need two parts to the equation: (1) a reason to fire the incumbent, and (2) a reason to hire the challenger.
Most folks have #1 down pat. What Perriello is trying to do — successfully so far — is to muddy whether RH is capable of #2.
…and yes, Century Research is probably push polling to find out what issue will work against Hurt in the last few weeks. See everything I wrote in my post, above.
First, the Richmond media market is the smallest of the four markets of the Fifth. However, it covers some of the conservative D precincts around Buckingham, et al.
Expect alot more fundraising from RH in the next few weeks. He can be outspent 2:1 and still will. The excellent numbers from this quarter prove that he can bring big money in.
To be fair, no one of any importance took the numbers of any of the SUSA polls seriously. It served as an up-or-down indicator of the two candidates.
“The results from today’s RDD poll are not backwards comparable to SurveyUSA’s previous releases, and therefore do not contain interactive tracking graphs. It is incorrect to infer that Perriello has gained 12 points since SurveyUSA’s last release.” – SUSA poll summary
RH has always been up. It is my prediction that he will win by six points unless he is video-taped stomping puppies behind a dumpster before Nov. 2.
In any event, donate more money, work some phonebanks, help out all you can. It’s the final stretch that matters in any race, so let’s not run out of steam.
Shaun: Robert Hurt has made the case to vote for him. He gets it–we want the government out of our lives to the extent possible.
he had many people talking against him in the primary & some of that has “stuck”. some people can’t get beyond what they heard in the run-up to the primary to listen to our candidate.
& Tom Paine: I agree. my guess (with absolutely nothing to substantiate it) is about 6% win over Perriello.
The Washington Post reported on a poll co-sponsored by The Hill and the American Natural Gas Association which showed Hurt with only a 1% lead. They reported the results of this poll matches a League of Conservation Voters survey which also showed Hurt with only a 1% lead.
@kelley — I’m not sure I agree that the primary has left a bad taste in folks mouth. The GOP party faithful have lined up rather well. The kicker is whether or not Perriello can buy the election.
Again, 3:1 cash on hand is one heck of an advantage… and there’s plenty of independents and moderates who can be convinced otherwise (or Rs who find the race too confusing or negative — as TP will hope to muddy the waters as best he can, as he did in the 1st WSLS debate).
I cheated and looked at the poll data at http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=932d4414-8e69-4f0f-8df1-e5d732205b07
The numbers vary according to percentage of black vote in the total vote. If the black vote is 25% of total voters then flip a coin. If the black vote is 12% of total voters then Hurt wins by about 20%.
Shaun: I made that same arguement — that the 5th is not as good for a Republican as some people assume because of Virgil’s tenure about a month ago, people said I didn’t know what I was talking about.
Republicans never captured the 5th District in an election, Virgil switched in place and was popular enough personally, outside of the Charlottesville area, to survive it. Before that it’s L.F. Payne, Dan Daniels…back into the 19th century.
” Statement of Governor Warner
~on the passage of HB 5018, the Tax Reform Compromise Act of 2004~
RICHMOND – Governor Mark R. Warner issued the following statement on the passage today of Delegate Parrish’s HB 5018, the Tax Reform Compromise Act of 2004, by Virginia’s House of Delegates:
“Today, a coalition of 53 responsible members of the Virginia House of Delegates voted to put partisan politics aside and support significant tax reform for the people of Virginia. I commend members from both parties – Democrats and Republicans – who worked to get HB 5018 through the House.
“While the amended version of HB 5018 produces less than the original compromise, it is a significant accomplishment. I will continue to work toward a final compromise that safeguards Virginia’s fiscal integrity, promotes tax fairness, and provides adequate funding for our core priorities.
“With today’s vote behind us, we must be clear that a budget from the General Assembly is still long overdue. Continuing delays in getting a budget to my desk will create severe hardships for our citizens. Localities across Virginia will be unable to adopt their budgets, and as a result, many may have to raise property taxes.
“Today’s vote creates momentum. Leaders in the House and the Senate should seize this momentum and work toward a budget compromise without further delay.” ”
Your reward for putting aside partisan politics is having your vote used against you by the party you helped. The message is never work with the other party, ever, really don’t do it even if they are right.
” Statement of Governor Warner
~on the passage of HB 5018, the Tax Reform Compromise Act of 2004~
RICHMOND – Governor Mark R. Warner issued the following statement on the passage today of Delegate Parrish’s HB 5018, the Tax Reform Compromise Act of 2004, by Virginia’s House of Delegates:
“Today, a coalition of 53 responsible members of the Virginia House of Delegates voted to put partisan politics aside and support significant tax reform for the people of Virginia. I commend members from both parties – Democrats and Republicans – who worked to get HB 5018 through the House.
“While the amended version of HB 5018 produces less than the original compromise, it is a significant accomplishment. I will continue to work toward a final compromise that safeguards Virginia’s fiscal integrity, promotes tax fairness, and provides adequate funding for our core priorities.
“With today’s vote behind us, we must be clear that a budget from the General Assembly is still long overdue. Continuing delays in getting a budget to my desk will create severe hardships for our citizens. Localities across Virginia will be unable to adopt their budgets, and as a result, many may have to raise property taxes.
“Today’s vote creates momentum. Leaders in the House and the Senate should seize this momentum and work toward a budget compromise without further delay.” ”
Your reward for putting aside partisan politics is having your vote used against you by the party you helped. The message is never work with the other party, ever, really don’t do it, even if they are right.
Hi, Shaun:
I receieved a reply from Jeff Clark to my press release previously posted here. The full text is below:
I wanted to take a moment respond to a recent press release by Carole Thorpe of the Jefferson Area Tea Party. In the release, Mrs. Thorpe correctly characterizes conversations we had early on in my campaign. I did inform Mrs. Thorpe that it was not my intention to be only a spoiler and if that were the case I would drop out. However, that was before my participation was systematically limited by my Republican opponent.
Since our first conversation, many things have developed in our campaign. State Senator Hurt, in a blatant act of political snobbery and elitism, refused to participate in any debates or forums in which I was an invited participant. He held his breath and stomped his feet like a spoiled child until he got his way. Because of his actions, we have been excluded from the all-important televised debates coming up this month. Not only are Senator Hurt’s actions elitist, but also blatantly hypocritical. When challenged by his Republican Party primary opponent, Laurence Verga, to a one on one debate, Mr. Hurt refused releasing the following statement:
“Ignoring all the other candidates as Mr. Verga has done in this request is nothing more than a political stunt and is frankly insulting to the fine contributions each of the other candidates have brought to this campaign,”.
In 2006, the Republican Party encouraged and argued for an Independent candidate to be included in the debates and forums because that Independent had a “Green” designation beside his name and the Republican Party felt it would help their candidate.
Recently, we took our case of being excluded from the debates to the Rutherford Institute, a world renowned bipartisan civil liberties organization. The Rutherford institute listened to our plea and agreed this was an egregious manipulation of the 1st amendment. They see that this is not only happening here in the 5th district but across the country. This tactic is being used by both major political parties to systematically eliminate or limit Independent candidates from the American political process. The Supreme Court of the United States has made it clear:
“(C)andidate debates are of exceptional significance in the electoral process….Deliberation On the positions and qualifications of candidates is integral to our system of government, and the electoral speech may have its most profound and wide spread impact when it is disseminated through televised debates”
If I were to drop from the race now, it would end the case currently being handled by the Rutherford Institute and would without question allow this despicable practice to continue.
Understanding the importance and potential impact of the televised debates, I privately negotiated with intermediaries of the Hurt campaign to be included in one televised debate. I stated that if I were to be included in one televised debate – and if I did not poll at 25% or higher in any independent poll immediately following the debate – that I would drop out and put my support behind Hurt. I went so far as agreeing to set up a debate in mid to late September in an attempt to give his campaign plenty of time for one on one debates in October. Mrs Thorpe can confirm this because it was through the Jefferson Area Tea Party that we were trying to arrange the debate. I made this offer because I felt that if I were to be included in one televised debate that it would at least have given me the opportunity to compete and to speak to those undecided in the 5th district. I want to make this clear – setting a purposely high poll number, there is 99.9 % chance I would have been out of the race by October 1st and my name could have been removed from the ballot. It was because of Hurt’s refusal of my offer that I am still in the race and felt compelled to seek the help of the Rutherford Institute.
I respect the stance the Jefferson Area Tea Party has taken and how they, before anyone else, issued a statement saying all candidates should be included in the debates, while other Tea Party organizations in the area simple ignored or justified Hurt’s blatant manipulation or disregard for the 1st amendment. It is my sincere hope that Mrs. Thorpe understands based on the circumstances and events that have developed since or first conversation that I feel I cannot drop out of the race at this time.
However, I will publicly extend the following offer to State Senator Hurt; if you allow me to participate in one televised debate and if I do not poll at 25% or higher immediately following that debate in an independent poll, I will drop out of the race and support you in your bid for Congress.
–
Sincerely,
Jeffrey A. Clark
Independent Candidate
Virginia’s 5th District
US House of Representatives
re: Mr. Clark’s letter: he says he can’t drop out because he has a case with the Rutherford Institute (is this pending litigation? is Rutherford Institute representing Mr. Clark?).
then Mr Clark says he will drop out if 1: He is allowed to participate in a debate (which would only help Perriello who must raise Clark’s numbers to remain competitive with Hurt) & 2: he thereafter polls below 25%.
Personally, I feel that Mr. Clark’s votes will not impact this election.
The Republicans need to work very hard between now and election day.
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