VA-9: Does the NRCC know something SurveyUSA doesn’t?
By Ward Smythe | Monday, October 4th, 2010 | PoliticsThe latest SurveyUSA poll (which, by the way, over projected Democratic turnout) shows Rick Boucher with a 15 pt. lead over Morgan Griffith in the Fightin’ 9th District.
But the National Republican Congressional Committee is out with a new ad buy. Does that mean they still think it’s winnable?
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Ward Smythe
Ward Smythe is a pseudonymous aspiring freelance writer from Central Virginia. Until late 2007 Ward blogged at the now defunct "Ward View" and was active in Virginia and national politics. Ward's signature style of snarkery gained him a unique following that he hopes to regain here at Bearing Drift. Ward uses humor, satire and sometimes photoshop to make his point. Ward is proud to be an equal opportunity offender.
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5 Responses to "VA-9: Does the NRCC know something SurveyUSA doesn’t?"
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Shaun Kenney, Bearing Drift. Bearing Drift said: Web: VA-9: Does the NRCC know something SurveyUSA doesn’t? http://bit.ly/alB9JH [...]
Yes it’s winnable, like the 11th it will be difficult, but definitely worth the investment.
It’s really simple. Just look at the crosstabs of the Survey USA poll. The early September poll used a +5R weighting. The late September poll switched to a +5D weighting. Take the same numbers and simply reweight them to a more likely turnout model and it’s really a single digit race with Boucher below 50%.
The truth is, the turnout is likely to be about 40R, 30D, 30I. Under that scenario, even using SUSA’s numbers, we’re already in a statistical dead heat.
[...] is a new ad from the NRCC against Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA) in Virginia’s 9th district. Ward Smythe makes an interesting [...]
Boucher has 53% which means 47% are against him. If every supporter of Morgan Griffith will just get one person more to vote Griffith, he will win.
The New York Times has written, in explaining why the political parties have lost the confidence of the public: “Their machinery of intrigue, their shuffling evasions, the dodges, the chicanery and the deception of their leaders have excited universal disgust, and have created a general readiness in the public mind for any new organization that shall promise to shun their vices.”
That was written in 1855. Sigh, I guess some things never change.
Will this election be like the one in 1910
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1910
or like the election in 1894 ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1894
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