The Richmond Times-Dispatch previewed both the 2nd and 5th Congressional races recently saying the 2nd has much to do with military voting and the closure of Joint Forced Command (JFCOM) and the 5th is about “voter anxiety”.
In the 2nd, RTD points to military voting as part of the problem for Nye, but likely hits at his biggest issue later in the article — not being in a voting cycle with an Obama or Warner at the top of the ticket and alienating his base with his votes on key bills:
Quentin Kidd, a political scientist at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, said Nye was in political trouble before the Joint Forces Command uproar because of the bad economy and because he has voted against the Obama administration so many times that he has alienated the Democratic base.
Nye voted for the stimulus package and for financial regulatory reform. But he voted against Obama in opposing the health-care bill and cap-and-trade legislation meant to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
“I think the people appreciate an independent-minded representative who doesn’t vote along party lines,” says Nye, a member of the Blue Dog coalition of conservative Democrats in Congress.
Nye may be correct in that assumption, but he may have not been in office long enough to behave that way. In the still conservative 2nd, in a mid-term year, Nye needs as much enthusiasm from his base as he can get to overcome an energized GOP – but that base has yet to materialize.
Of the 5th, RTD notes that economic conditions, particularly in the distressed areas of Martinsville and Danville, will play a role in this race. They also point out that there may be a “lesser of two evils” feeling amongst the electorate. However, in a nutshell, the article says of the campaign that:
“Perriello hopes to at least hold his 727-vote margin. In a limping economy. With pervasive voter anxiety.
“Perriello’s Republican opponent, state Sen. Robert Hurt of Pittsylvania County, is seizing upon that dynamic, painting Perriello as a lock-step party loyalist to the Obama administration who is out of touch with the district.”
The bottom-line: it’s still the economy and jobs driving the electorate; an economy that has only gotten worse under the leadership of Nancy Pelosi and Congressional Democrats.
