Last month, SurveyUSA conducted an exclusive poll for Roanoke CBS-affiliate WDBJ-7 that showed state Senator Robert Hurt trouncing Democratic incumbent Rep. Tom Perriello by 23 percentage points. On Monday, the American Action Forum, the conservative policy institute launched by Norm Coleman, released a bevy of polling data it commissioned through Ayers, McHenry & Associates for several of this cycle’s most-watched races, including the race in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District. The poll of likely voters conducted July 28, 29, 31 and August 1 found Sen. Hurt leading Rep. Perriello by a margin of 49-43. Although Sen. Hurt’s six-point lead is considerably narrower than the margin of his lead in last month’s SurveyUSA poll, multiple sources report that these findings are much more reasonable, suggesting that SurveyUSA’s poll might have been an outlier. This poll also has two caveats: first, it has a +/- 4.9 margin of error and second, it excludes independent conservative candidate Jeff Clark. (The SurveyUSA poll included Mr. Clark, who garnered the support of 4 percent of respondents.)
Several interesting observations from the poll:
Rep. Perriello enjoys 95 percent name recognition in the district; Sen. Hurt only enjoys 75 percent name recognition, yet Hurt still bests Perriello.
Only 37 percent of the respondents believe Rep. Perriello deserves another term; 52 percent said that it is time for a change.
Neither the mood of the district nor the dominant issues this year favor Perriello: only 29 percent of respondents think the nation is on the right track. The top issues of concern for 5th District voters are the economy/jobs/unemployment and controlling government spending.
Respondents oppose the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act by a margin of 52-37, with the number of those registering strong opposition greatly outweighing those registering strong support.
In summation, a lesser-known Republican candidate, who emerged from a bruising primary as the nominee only two months ago and who has not advertised his candidacy, is leading a well-known and well-funded incumbent, who has been advertising for nearly two months, by six points–all in a year that favors Republicans. Supporters of Robert Hurt should be encouraged by these positive signs, but if they want to replace Rep. Perriello, they cannot take this lead for granted.
