Open thread – VA-02!
By JR Hoeft | Sunday, June 6th, 2010 | PoliticsSince our open thread on VA-05 has gone so well, let’s do the same in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District in advance of Tuesday’s Republican Primary.
As Shaun did in the previous thread, here’s my prediction of the breakdown this Tuesday:
Winner: 55%
Candidate #2: 22%
Candidate #3: 12%
Candidate #4 : 8%
Candidate #5: 2%
Candidate #6: 1%
Your thoughts? Can you predict the candidates listed here? Will you support the eventual nominee?
Person who gets the closest gets their choice from the Red Store Virginia…or they can come on the podcast to explain their awesomeness.
(DISCLAIMER: Bearing Drift has endorsed Bert Mizusawa. No apologies for the photo. You know why it’s there.)
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About the author
Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
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26 Responses to "Open thread – VA-02!"
Rigell
Loyola
Bert M.
Will be the top 3.
But I think Loyola will finish ALOT closer than anyone things and will surprise some folks.
Rigell as winner. The negative attacks from Mizusawa and Loyola are not gaining traction. Rigell has been a fixture in this community for 20 years. Too many people know and like him, and they are aware of his strong record of supporting conservatives.
I have to say that I ALMOST wish Loyola would win just to see him get eaten alive by the Democrats for plagiarizing Rigell’s document. Funny that copying someone else’s document wasn’t part of his “pledge” (read: publicity stunt) yesterday. I guess that’s because he would have immediately had to resign for breaking his pledge. LOL. Wonder when the Tea Party BOARD is going to realize they made a huge mistake.
Taylor has some name ID from his failed run for mayor in Virginia Beach (not sure, but I think there should have been a lesson there). Aside from having no traction, he suffers from the same scandal as Loyola (copying Rigell’s document).
Bert, on the other hand, the DC lawyer who was completely unknown from the start, has done little to make anyone want to vote for him during his visits to the 2nd District. Instead, he (like the others) is just focused on trying to tear down Rigell. Don’t see that going to well for him here. He should have stuck to his previous “positive campaign” philosophy & then run for office elsewhere later on.
Sandlin is like the “alternative Republican.” Still not sure why she’s running as a Republican. Hilarious to read her attack on Obama when I’ve been told from a reliable source that she used to have an Obama bumper sticker on her car.
Maulbeck has been the biggest surprise to me of all the candidates. I’ve really enjoyed hearing him hold Loyola’s feet to the fire (again, that’s nothing compared to what the Dems would do to Loyola…oh, if only…).
My prediction:
Rigell
Loyola
Mizusawa
Taylor
Maulbeck
Sandlin
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Bearing Drift, BNN_HR. BNN_HR said: [BlogNetNewsHR] Bearing Drift: Open thread – VA-02!: Number of comments: 2Since our open thread on VA-05 has gone … http://bit.ly/beDIBf [...]
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Does anyone know the house Bert supposedly owns in Hampton on Zilber Court? I have checked every property located on Zilber Court, and the rest of Hampton, and I find nothing. An address would be appreciated.
Rigell
Mizusawa
Loyola (May switch spots with Taylor.)
Taylor (May switch spots with Loyola.)
Maulbeck & Sandlin (Qualify as other.)
Alexis – why do you care? Go to Bert’s HQ and ask as opposed to coming on a blog and trying to imply something the day before an election.
Mizusawa, Rigell, Loyola, Taylor, Sandlin, Maulbeck – but not in %’s you predict. I think the top 3 will be much closer. I put Loyola #3 because the Tea Party will not vote as a block; support will be distributed.
@LC The fact-check pieces distributed by Mizusawa, and facts now finally! picked up by local and national media, are turning and picking up undecided voters as they become informed, check out the candidates, and choose ‘real’ over RNC manufactured. And anyone that follows this blog knows that Bert has been visible, available, and actively engaged with the voters and the candidates from day 1. He comes to the table with positions and ideas that reflect study, thought, and a deep level of understanding. And his resume, life history, and long list of accomplishments inspire trust and confidence. Unlike Rigell, he is not an RNC robot, and doesn’t need to read the latest position papers to become informed or influence his opinions … he is the real deal.
Voters see it, understand it, and are moving towards it. Unfortunately, your candidate has been AWOL and offered up not much more than glitzy advertising for the last month – a decision which may very well cost him this election. I think the outcome is anyone’s guess right now and depends upon how educated and informed the voter comes to the poll.
With that said – good luck to all. It’s been a hard fought battle and I congratulate and appreciate all that have stepped up and also those that engage passionately and actively for their candidate.
What the media won’t report.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00463687/473499/f65
43%
32%
15%
6%
3%
1%
Go Bert!
Why is nobody reporting the 75k that rigell just put into his campaign. That does not sound like he’s too confident going into the last week.
I have a feeling that ever since the mailers and ads about rigell came out his polling numbers are looking a little different than 3 weeks ago.
If we think the primaries in the 2nd and the 5th are fun, wait until 2013 when the RPV tries to nominate Bill Bolling for Gov.
Bill Bolling could bring everyone together alot better than Robert Hurt ever will.
Kirwin, I had my numbers ready to go, and then you play a wild card which changes everything. I will never play poker with you, ever.
Tim, you could always post two sets of numbers.
I’m going to have to use DJ’s bookie to help me come up with the odds….
Rigell: 52%
Mizusawa: 20%
Loyola: 18%
Taylor: 8%
Maulbeck 1%
Sandlin 1%
Went to clear the voice mail on my home landline and I had 3 robocalls: Mizusawa, Hampton Roads Tea Party for Loyola, and Rigell.
My shot at the numbers:
Rigell 35%
Mizusawa 26%
Loyola 21%
Taylor 12%
Sandlin 4%
Maulbeck 2%
Rigell wins on a plurality, as the ABR (Anyone But Rigell) Camp was never able to form up behind a single candidate. However, a plurality under 40% leaves Rigell vulnerable to getting splintered by Golden in November.
The anti-taxers jumping on the Loyola bandwagon was the proverbial “too little, too late.” Ben was in a position to beat Rigell 4-6 weeks ago, only if Mizusawa and/or Taylor had withdrawn and endorsed him.
I knew Scott Taylor getting in was a mistake from the beginning, as the field was already too crowded. I would have supported him if he had shown me he could win, but he’s done nothing to make me believe he can. However, it will be a pleasant surprise if he pulls off the upset.
Maulbeck tried to position himself as the ultraconservative choice. However, once Loyola starting getting the TEA Party endorsements, Ed’s fate was decided.
Hoeft’s picks:
Rigell: 55%
Mizusawa: 22%
Loyola: 12%
Taylor: 8%
Maulbeck: 2%
Sandlin: 1%
My picks:
Rigell: 45%
Mizusawa: 23%
Loyola: 20%
Taylor: 10%
Maulbeck: 1%
Sandlin: 1%
Out of the clear blue sky here is where I see them:
Rigell close to a tie with Loyola but Scott is just a single digit percentage ahead.
Mizusawa closely tied with Taylor but both in double digits.
Maulbeck and Sandlin are wildcards but both win single digits.
Whoever wins will have their feet held to the fire by Ed behind the scenes and the Tea party will do the same out in the open. The defeated 5 will not walk away empty handed imo.
Every one of these candidates who are defeated should seek local or state office taking advantage of their now improved bolstered name recognition. I would like to see Bert run for Senate in the 703, 540 & 804 so we have 2 republicans.
Taylor 34%
Rigell 28%
Bert 18%
Loyola 18%
Maulbeck 1%
Sandlin 1%
I am revising Taylors numbers up a bit..
Winner: 33%
Candidate #2: 30%
Candidate #3: 27%
Candidate #4: 5%
Candidate #5: 3%
Candidate #6: 2%
sorry to break into a 2d CD thread with a 5thCD comment. Shaun, good catch on McK “endorsement”. har! people in Lunenburg didn’t like it one bit.
Loyola 27%
Misusawa 27%
Rigell 24%
Taylor 14%
Maulbeck 6%
Sandlin 2%
So, Wally… does Ben get 1 more vote than Bert to win?
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