Open Thread on VA-05!
By request, here is your open thread on VA-05. To make it more interesting, we’re going to hold a bit of a contest. I’ll go first:
Winner: 42%
Candidate #2: 18%
Candidate #3: 13%
Candidate #4 12%
Candidate #5: 9%
Candidate #6: 3%
Candidate #7: 3%
Also, indicate whether you’re willing to support the eventual nominee regardless (my answer: YES).
So now you too can give an honest breakdown of how VA-05 is going to go on Tuesday, regardless of whom you are supporting!
Person who gets the closest gets… well, I’ll buy them a drink. Or we’ll have them on the podcast so they can explain how awesome they are to the rest of the class!
(DISCLAIMER: I’ve endorsed Feda Morton in the 5th District. I also endorse pipe tobacco, Yuengling Beer, Glenfiddich scotch, and the Baltimore Orioles. Also — apologies for the really ugly header, just in case anyone chooses to lose perspective as to who the real opposition is.)
Category: Campaigns and Elections
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Hurt, Boyd, Morton, McKelvey, McPadden, Verga, and who?
Added bonus: Hurt over Perriello 50.2 to 45.3. The sour grapes third party conservative gets 4.8%. Shaun Kenney gets 0.1%.
I take my Scotch neat, but prefer Bulleit bourbon.
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Ron Ferrin!
(don’t worry — I forgot Ken Boyd elsewhere)
I’m with you on the O’s. Got to see my first complete game shutout in Camden Yards last night. Granted, we didn’t pitch it, but seeing a four hitter is always pretty cool.
Also, I prefer Black Label. Yes, I know it’s a blend. Sue me.
Well you gotta make PREDICTIONS first, fellas!
woo hoo! a 5th CD thread. Many thanks to Shaun.
My only prediction is this: Hurt takes Lunenburg big, Brunswick big & Mecklenburg bigger. Based on zero scientific evidence.
And while I think the photo of Tom Perriello is absolutely nasty, many will think he looks Marlboro-man-rugged. until they see him in person.
Winner: 42%
#2: 20%
#3: 17%
#4: 10%
#5: 8%
#6: 2%
#7: 1%
I will indeed support the nominee, and I have a particular fondness for a John Daly.
Folks… come on there is only one real candidate in that race and its Sen. Robert Hurt! The rest of the bunch are silly.
and yes of course Id support the nominee. Because at the end of the day silly is far better than sh#%ty Tom “Jello” Periello.
question: the best funded of these candidates are running polls. Why doesn’t #1 on the list release his/her glowing results? because he/she doesn’t want their campaign to stand down? or afraid to raise expectations?
…or you don’t want to show that other candidates are within striking distance.
Scary thing is, the nominee could squeak out of this with a mere plurality. Which makes unity afterwards all the more necessary.
here is a bonus question: what is the chance that all 7 candidates will appear together in a show of unity? in the next 10 days?
Zero.
McKelvey won’t stand next to Hurt.
uh
Best Guess:
I am predicting Jim “Tea Party” McKelvey as the winner. Therefore my ‘final’ Best Guess as of 6/3 of the final polling on June 8th:
1. Jim McKelvey 23-25%
2. Robert Hurt 21-23%
3. Ken Boyd 20-22%
4. Ron Ferrin 12-14%
5. Mike McPadden 12-14%
6. Feda Morton 6-8%
7. Laurence Verga 2-4%
Final thought:
I have heard some say that they will not support the Republican winner if their guy is not elected on June 8th. Part of me wants to chasten them for their lack of team play attitude because defeating Tom Perriello is the goal. But, I must say this: I completely understand, and I too am susceptible to the temptations of this life. For me it is “if McPadden wins I will not support him” because McPadden is not who he pretends to be. As one person who was close to McPadden and left him said “all the glitters isn’t gold.”
Therefore, let me encourage all of us, myself included… we must defeat Tom Perriello.
We must unite behind the winner of this Primary and lay down any animosity, hard feelings, and opinions that have been developed through this political process. We must walk the extra mile and be diligent to knock on doors and make phone calls. We must get out of our comfort zones and raise funds, put up signs and tell our neighbors about real hope and change. We, the Fifth District of Virginia, must be a part of the New American Revolution.
The VA 5th Congressional race is exciting I am looking forward to Election Day. – then onto soundly defeating Congressman Tom Perriello.
Have you ordered your “PinkSlipPerriello” bumper stickers? Here is the link: http://www.pinkslipperriello.com/
Reverend: I hope your prediction is incorrect, however, here is one anecdote: while phone calling for Sen Hurt, one woman said she was going to vote for McKelvey because he was the only one on TV.
believe it or not, I resisted every urge to say “yep, all my political decisions are based on TV ads” & instead said thank you.
does anyone have a sense of what weight the TV ads had in this primary? I never saw one & don’t know if one were even broadcast on my local stations (Richmond).
Shooting in the dark, but here goes:
1. Hurt….53%
2. Boyd….16%
3. McKelvey….13%
4. McPadden….6%
4. Morton……6%
6. Verga…..4%
7. Ferrin….2%
Hurt will win a majority of the votes, and I fell confident that Boyd will finish 2nd and McKelvey 3rd, though they could swap places as McKelvey is desperately trying to claim the Tea Party mantle. After that, who knows and who cares? It’s just throwing numbers when you’re that low on the totem pole.
I don’t think all 7 candidates will come together. In fact, I’m not going to be shocked if one of the candidates isn’t endorsing Clark within the week, and possibly another will endorse Clark before November.
Robert will try hard, but unless something wretched occurs b/w now and November that really deep-sixes the Dems nationally or Hurt is able to get some major African-American endorsements throughout the district….Periello is going back in if Clark is running. The wrath of the Tea Partiers is more than I expected towards Hurt, so I can really see Clark taking 3 or 4%. It’s tough enough to beat an incumbent without someone taking 3 or 4% of your voters (and all of Clark’s voters would prefer Hurt to Periello). It will truly be the perfect as enemy of the good, but if that’s how voters fell, well that’s how they feel. Good luck to all the candidates on the 8th. It is very difficult to run a congressional campaign, especially in a district as large as the 5th. They must be tired by now.
ghost: you know much about the District & campaigning. So I pose this question to you (& to the others here):
why don’t the “wrathful” TEA partiers, who now seem to be “kingmakers” sit down with Robert Hurt & get some idea of what he thinks? There just has to be that much pragmaticism there somewhere.
for example, many of them are angry that RH hasn’t endorsed the Fair Tax wholeheartedly & only agreed to “study” it. well, this is the truthful answer. If he endorsed it & went to Congress & was presented with a zillion studies showing the drop in revenue (unless implementation was timed correctly) & then said he was not in favor of FAIR tax, but another solution, then these people would say he lied on the campaign trail.
sure, some people are just going to vote for 3d party no matter what. But those that are really angry need to challenge that towards the real issue. Perriello.
this is not good news for any of us, but the economy will continue to slide before November. The only silver lining to this is that Perriello is in the party that can claim credit for burdening us with even more debt in this time of recession/depression.
After the election, all seven candidates will appear together and in support of the winner of the primary during a Unity tour press conference sponsored by the 5th District Republican Committee within days after June 8th. We are planning press events in Danville, Lynchburg, and in
Albemarle on June 10th or 11th. It’s my job to get them all there….and I will, even if I have to gently drag one or two by their ears to get them there (when I was a kid, I thought my mom believed that my ear was a handle bar, but it was usually quite effective..)
All seven candidates are great people, and once the primary is over, I know that all of them will firmly believe that Tom Perriello must be defeated in November. While there will be only one winner, the 5th will benefit from having six new leaders in our midst. Because the chances are great that the primary winner will take the contest by a plurality and not a clear majority, the real job will be working hard to make sure that those voters who did not vote for the primary winner will get behind our nominee and fight for his or her election in November.
As for me, nooo prediction or handicapping on this race, although I will predict that the Orioles will not be in the World Series. Go Nationals!
Hurt wins an easy victory on tuesday. Boyd comes in second. McKelvey’s negativity is not helping or playing well in the district, except among the tea party. The tea party is much smaller in the 5th then you think. They are very vocal and just appear to be larger. This is a blue dog democrat district at heart.
I will support the nominee whoever it he or she may be.
52 Hurt will win and win big. He has visited more people personally, built teams of supporters in every county and run a very focused campaign. People like him campaigning against Perriello. A real professional grassroots campaign. The only candidate to understand the district and have successful fund raising events in almost every county. The only candidate to raise serious money. Clearly the Democrats want him beaten as they have run anti Hurt YouTube and press. Won’t work.
16-Boyd has dedicated great volunteers in Albemarle but he never was able to raise money nor get off the ground anywhere else. He has proven he knows how to govern and those close to him are gentlemen. Thank him for changing the face of runaway government in his county.
14 McKelvey has shown little but that he is angry and not a team player. His campaign never learned how to build a grass roots operation. He and his manager has been obnoxious to the press and the supporters of others. There are counties that he will get less than 5% in. The only reason he gets this high districtwide is that he has spent a lot of money and Feda’s campaign imploded. Gets award for least bang for the buck of any campaign.
10 McPadden Didn’t ever have a pro team on the field. Never raised any money to get wide districtwide name recognition. Stumbled out of the gate with problems with first managers and then giving big title to the Reverend. Has people who really like him a lot and have stayed faithful throughout.
4 Morton Slowly built team and support before self imploding. Could have been a factor but personal history and plagarism doomed her to be this far down. Her list of big time supporters look really weak now in their judgement. Will never be heard from again.
2 Verga. Started off like a rocket. Poor health and bad expensive advisors doomed him. We will hear more from him when his health is better.
2 Ferrin. Nice guy. No money. No name recognition. We will hear from him again.
On third party. Clark has a huge ego and little else. Outside of some in Danville and some TEAS in Lynchburg no exposure. Will be a short story.
You really think Hurt is going to get above 50%?
I predict McKelvey will win with 28% Hurt will come in 2nd with 23% McPadden will get 19% boyd will get 11% the others will have very low numbers.The turnout will be alot stronger than most people think people are mad as hell.Tuckers help in Halifax has turned alot of people away from Hurt.They have joined Jim McKelvey.
Dennis: where do you live? I was just with a gathering of Mecklenburg people–all very conservative—who didn’t even realize there was a primary (some said, “oh yeah, maybe I did know that…”) The few that plan to be around on Tuesday will vote for Hurt now that I suggested that to them.
But as a group,this was their comment “just give us somebody to beat Perriello with”.
the standard voters will vote. In my part of the world, they will vote for Hurt because they’ve gotten alot of mail/calls/visits from Frank Ruff & Tommy WRight (gasp, elected officials & therefore establishment. However, neither are lawyers so we won’t hate them).
there are some activists new to the process. That is the best news ever. Maybe they won’t vote for Hurt (as I would wish), but we sure need them on our side.
Im from South Boston.Alot of people say Tucker has been caught on a game camera taking down campaign signs.Im sure the former chairman of the 5th district who wasn’t secretly working for Hurt while he was the chairman wouldn’t do something like that.
thanks Dennis. I’m in Kenbridge. Saw some Halifax people yesterday. They are Hurt supporters, but they say McP will get some votes there.
We have a tendency to think everyone thinks the same way we do mostly because the people we are in contact with are people that are of the same mind set as we are.Alot of people in Halifax that think they have talked other people into voting for Hurt are going to be shocked when the numbers come in Tuesday.Kelley i was in Clarksville today saw alot of McKelvey signs and a few Hurt and McPadden if you think Hurt has this race won you are not being true to yourself.He is a lawyer people don’t like lawyers alot.
Good luck to Mr. Stanley. If he gets all 7 candidates together for a Unity event, either (a.) He’s a heckuva diplomat who should be over in Israel brokering a Mideast peace agreement or (b.) One of the candidates on that stage has been lying through their teeth (at least to one person I know) about their intentions if they lose this primary election.
As for the general, one thing that is really underestimated has been Periello’s presence. Up til 2008, there was all this folklore about Virgil Goode being at “every event” in the Fifth. Well, Periello certainly hasn’t just sat at a desk in D.C. He’s been all over the Fifth since January 2009. Frankly, I’ve seen more of Periello in the district than Goode (how many town halls did Goode hold?). If the GOP decides to take the “out of touch” attacks to him, they’ll be whistling Dixie past the graveyard. The guy is everywhere and people know it. I know of three folks who went to his town hall in Danville. All three are your normal moderate-conservative Chamber of Commerce types. All three told me they could not believe how smooth Periello is in person. I saw one of the debates in 2008 and, sad as it is to say, he made mincemeat of a 6 term incumbent. Periello won the debate on every front. This coupled with the Duncan fiasco in Danville simply changed the tide of the campaign. If I was advising Senator Hurt, I’d strongly urge him to avoid debates. Periello’s a master with words, and debating him is likely to end in pure folly.
Stanley and his folks have an enormous fight on their hands. As I’ve stated on other blogs, the GOP has not won the Fifth in over 100 years without a party switch. Good luck, you’re going to need every bit of it.
Hmmmmmm…… my take is
Hurt 39% everyone else will be in the high teens and single digits.
It will still be a double digit win for Hurt, but I don’t think it will be over 50%
dennis: don’t start with me about not liking lawyers. obviously you have never been divorced or bought real estate or even filed an estate accounting.
52% of this country elected Obama–he’s a lawyer. And our district went big–very big–for Bob McDonnell. He’s a lawyer.
yeah, you would think i’d be used to it by now.
Perriello had more townhalls than any other member of Congress (and I didn’t even read that in his literature). He was not well-rec’d here in Kenbridge. We are hot about cap ‘n trade & obamacare.
he was smooth, but he didn’t answer one damn question.
Yeah Kelley McDonnell is a lawyer but he voted against the tax increase that Hurt voted for and everyone was behind McDonnell including the Tea party.McDonnell was not the candidate everyone didn’t want to be compared to.Also Perriello is alot better candidate than Deeds was.How many indy’s did you hear say if McDonnell was the candidate they would stay in the race ?
We can discuss the gubernatorial race after tuesday, but my point was that more lawyers gravitate towards politics than any other defined profession.
rumor: McKelvey mailed flyers to Virginia Beach. anyone else hear that? i’ve emailed a few people down there to see if they got one.
Oh i will decide on June 9th who i will vote for in the general election.I could support most any of them but im not sure if i wouldn’t just stay home if Hurt wins the primary.Congress has enough lawyers now thats how we end up with 2700 page bills when 200 pages could cover most any bill.
Dennis: we ended up with a 2,700 bill because the Democrats were trying to lie, cheat & steal about Obamacare. They didn’t want the public to figure it out. It was Eric Cantor (yeah, I know, he’s establishment so yall hate him too) who brought the whole bill into Obama’s for-show negotiation session to point out to the country what the Dems were doing.
The Dems voted for it anyway. Perriello voted for it anyway.
Perriello is the bad guy. don’t lose sight of that.
Perriello isn’t any worse than Hurt.Hurt just hasn’t held a office where he could spend as fast as Perriello has but Kelley if you have your way im sure it won’t be long before he is well on his way.Kelley wants to elect the only candidate in the race that can’t beat Perriello.I hear that two of the candidates have made a deal with Clark to give him 100k and alot of support if Hurt wins.Bill Stanley Tucker dropped this bs in your lap but if Hurt wins you are going to lose alot of unit members they will be behind Clark.
Unity Rally
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Time: 9:00am – 12:00pm
Location: McIntire Park, Pavilion 3
Description
Please join the Albemarle & Charlottesville Republicans
for a potluck brunch and Unity Rally!
This will be our kickoff for the campaign to unseat Perriello in November. We’ll hear from our Congressional candidates, including our new nominee.
Coffee, juice and water will be provided. Please bring enough to feed 6. Suggestions include fruit, bagels/donuts/pastries, quiche, ham biscuits, veggie tray, etc.
If you have any questions about the meeting or the Unity Rally, please call Chairman Rachel Schoenewald at 434-242-1894 or e-mail chairman@albemarlegop.org.
My Order of Preference:
1. McPadden
2. Boyd
3. Hurt
4. Verga
5. Ferrin
6. McKelvey
7. Morton
My Prediction:
1. Hurt: 30%
2. McPadden: 24%
3. Boyd: 20%
4. McKelvey: 16%
5. Ferrin: 5%
6. Morton: 3%
7. Verga: 2%
I think a McPadden upset is possible, depending on how well he got his message out.
If McPadden wins I will be an enthusiastic and eager supporter.
If Boyd wins I will be a lukewarm supporter.
If Hurt wins, I won’t be happy about it, but I will still vote for him.
If any of the remaining four win, I will probably stay home, since they don’t have the slightest chance of beating TP.
Jim McKelvey has the correct stance on social issues like Feda Morton and Ron Ferrin do – but neither Ferrin nor Feda can pull this off and beat Robert Hurt
And when it come to beating Tom Perriello – we will need all hands on deck, TEA Party included, to beat Tom Perriello, only Jim McKelvey can bring the TEA Party to the polls on Nov. 2.
I am convinced that a vote for anyone other than Jim McKelvey is a vote for Robert Hurt.
har! my only thought since November ’08 has been on how to beat Perriello.
and if we all work to elect the winner of tomorrow’s primary, then we can beat him.
Dennis, look here, I’ve said before on several blogs: I will work for our nominee no matter who he/she is. Perriello is anti-American (cap ‘n trade) & anti-capitalism (Obamacare, Stimulus).
Kelley if Hurt wins the primary Perriello will defeat him in November Virgil Goode only lost by 727 this is a fact I know is hard for you to see.For Hurt to win he would have to bring everyone together this won’t happen.We had a meeting this weekend (McPadden supporters)and they were split in half between the ones that would vote for Hurt in the general election.These are all hard workers that will either sit at home or support a 3rd party candidate.Everyone did say they would support any of the other candidates except Hurt.
then Will, all of those McP supporters who won’t support the winner of this primary (if its Robert Hurt) will aid & abet the re-election of Perriello.
take down their names. Perriello will want them to work the polls for him in November. and these people can have their picture taken with Perriello & Pelosi.
there is no excuse for this attitude. I don’t love all these candidates, but I will work for any of them over Perriello.
Kelley I respect people that stand up for what they believe in.If Hurt hadn’t caved in to the Democrats we wouldn’t be talking about this.This is more than just about Hurt. Volunteers are tired of working and voting for RINO’s.Kelley this is the reason we now have a Tea party people are sick of the establishment picking the candidate for them.
I posted over at SSC a few days ago:
Candidate #1 41%
Candidate #2 24%
Candidate #3 18%
Candidate #4 9%
Candidate #5 4%
Candidate #6 3%
Candidate #7 1%
But I think I’ll tweek it a tiny bit to go with:
Candidate #1 40%
Candidate #2 22%
Candidate #3 18%
Candidate #4 11%
Candidate #5 5%
Candidate #6 3%
Candidate #7 1%
Nationals > Orioles
Also, there are a lot of silly people here in the 5th. Utterly ridiculous.
I’m sick of Perriello. bottom line.
work for your candidates today. Tomorrow work to defeat Perriello.
Congratulations, Scott Rigell. Well done.
General, thanks for your service, for campaigning so hard and for pressing Scott to become a better candidate.
Ben, your wonderful American story is so inspirational. You have a future in politics.
It would be a good idea if the top 3 candidates got together for a press conference with Scott to show a unified GOP marching together towards victory in November.
Good blog.