Polls: Scott Rigell, Keith Fimian and Robert Hurt Winning Handily in VA-02, VA-11 & VA-05
By D.J. Spiker | Tuesday, May 25th, 2010 | PoliticsPolling news from today in the 2nd District, by POS Strategies:
Candidate Heard Of / Favorable – Unfavorable
Scott Rigell 86% / 64% – 4%
Ben Loyola 58% / 21% – 5%
Scott Taylor 55% / 22% – 4%
Bert Mizusawa 52% / 21% – 1%
Ed Maulbeck 38% / 7% – 3%
From the internal memo:
The ballot test shows a strong Rigell lead.
Scott Rigell’s name identification advantage has propelled him into a strong lead on the
ballot test garnering 47% of the vote followed by Mizusawa (10%), Taylor (9%), Loyola
(6%), and Maulbeck (1%). Rigell’s ballot strength cuts across all major subgroups in the
poll including very conservative voters (53%), strong Republicans (52%), pro-life voters
(49%), strong tea party supporters (52%), and those that are very likely to vote (46%).
Due to the antiquated set-up of Fimian’s page, I can’t copy paste the results. Click the link above to see the breakdown.
Keith Fimian: 36%
Pat Herrity: 23%
Undecided: 41%
Candidate Feb. Ballot % May Ballot % % Increase
Robert Hurt 21% 35% 14%
Ken Boyd 10% 10% 0%
Michael McPadden 3% 7% 4%
Jim McKelvey 1% 5% 4%
Feda Kidd Morton 3% 5% 2%
Laurence Verga 2% 4% 2%
Ron Ferrin 0% 0% 0%
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Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right...entrenched on the right as a member of the Establishment, proudly tattooed member of the Republican Party, bartender by trade serving both sides the libations needed to continue the debate and discourse. College student, ten years late, majoring in Public Policy and Administration with an eye to serving the conservative and Republican movement in the public or private sector. ducit amor patriae You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com. You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com.
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46 Responses to "Polls: Scott Rigell, Keith Fimian and Robert Hurt Winning Handily in VA-02, VA-11 & VA-05"
Fimian… the same guy whose polling had him within 3 points of Connolly the day before the election 2008.
Wow, looks like Rigell’s positive message is resonating with voter, good job staying on message and ignoring all the negative attacks.
People hate negative campaigns, which may explain why Bert Mizusawa is in 2nd and all the “I hate Rigell” campaigns are stuck in neutral.
Dan,
Can you cite your (Herrity’s) claim?
DJ, you beat me to the punch on Fimian. Oh well, nice work. Here’s the article I would’ve put up on BD:
http://www.examiner.com/x-26908-Fairfax-County-Conservative-Examiner~y2010m5d25-New-survey-shows-Fimian-pulling-away-Herrity-denounces-outdated-polling
It’s a bit of analysis on the polls and the increased rhetoric from both campaigns spliced with a little bit of insider knowledge.
41% undecided ?
I wouldn’t be too confident in that lead if I were Fimian.
Does anyone remember someone named Scott Brown ?
Herrity would have to find a message beyond I’m Jack Herrity’s son to win the undecideds.
I was actually amused by Herritys claim that the Fimian poll was outdated when he cited a poll with him in the lead that’s over 3 months old.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – I have a soft spot for lil riggie …so this makes me happy. That being said, I still hope he loses the General in November.
Since over 40% of those polled had not heard of everyone but Rigell (or maybe not even him), does that mean that over 40% of the primary voters will walk into the voting booth without actually knowing who is on the ballot? I find that thought disturbing.
Keep in mind, the 5th District data you cite is from the Robert Hurt organization.
@ D.J. (a.k.a. “DJ for Rigell”) Regarding D2 -You post results of a name recognition poll from a small sampling ‘across the district’, along with internal Rigell notes … and then extrapolate data into election results? That’s a R-E-A-L stretch. After spending $1.5 million & blasting the airways with his car commercials, I would surely expect nothing less than the lead in name recognition. To all, please note:
#1 – the ‘analysis’ comes from the internal Rigell memo, likely edited and written specifically for public posting. http://www.scottrigell.com/poll/poll.pdf
#2 – Gov. Bob McDonnell is also a POS (Political Opinion Strategies) client. Surpise, surprise – anyone want to take a guess as to who paid for (and owns) these ‘polling results’? http://pos.org/clients/campaigns/
Please, Rigell supporters, hacks and staff – I respect you’ve picked your candidate, but stop treating the rest of us as morons. You’ve sequestered your candidate from the voters since his last meltdown, where he promised an open debate and has yet followed up with that promise. (DJ, when is it OK to use the L-word for that broken pledge?) This race is still 14 days from conclusion and much can change.
AND, I’m still waiting for someone to tell me how and why Rigell, who … towed his belongings to VB in a U Haul truck (which he then drove straight to daddy-in-law’s ATM machine) … needed a government bailout to “save his business”… brings little more than success at “have I got a deal for you”, writing checks, and abandoning his church (gay guy in RI got too close for comfort) … is the proven leader to trust with my children and grandchildren’s future? D.J. -you wrote the blog; you support him; please share. What more has this guy REALLY got? What am I not seeing?
What is the L word?
And I didn’t do anything besides post. No spin, no commentary, nothing. You have issues with the polling? info@scottrigell.com
Have at it.
And I don’t support any candidate, sorry. Can’t vote for any of them and won’t donate to anyone but the nominee, after they’re decided. My support comes on June 9th. I just don’t tolerate baseless attacks on Republicans. If someone attacked Bert I’d defend him just the same, I like Bert personally and would be thrilled to have Bert as the nominee.
I can recite every candidate’s bio/talking points, for a reason. I’d support any of them as the nominee. Obviously, Rigell has been the focal point because he’s been the front-runner virtually from day one, so it takes a little more defending.
Steven,
The data i cite is from Public Opinion Strategies polling firm. The spin is from and for the Robert Hurt campaign.
if the 5th District candidates other than Robert Hurt are polling, why don’t they share that info?
McKelvey sent out press release that he “won debate at Liberty Univ” last night. Robert Hurt could not attend due to previous commitment in Martinsville and also children were allowed to vote in the straw poll. I will never be smart enough to analyze that data.
So Jay D would have you believe that when Norfolk Southern hires KPMG to do an audit KPMG tells Norfolk Southern what they want to hear. He would also have you believe that since KPMG audits Norfolk Southern they should not audit Dollar Tree either.
Jay D you lose credibility with every word you write.
I guess I might be desperate too if I were down 37 points, but then again I would never be down 37 points because I would have rationally assessed the situation and seen that Scott Rigell would walk away with this nomination when he announced last July.
The man was never annointed. He was drafted. He was recruited. He was implored to run by the best and brightest in this party, but never mind all that-it’s all about money-so they would have you believe. Another example of a failed attack by his oppoonents. When you know Scott you know he isn’t all about money, but that’s just it. You never tried to get to know Scott. You listened to rumors and mistruths directed by his opponents who desperately want to win. They want to win so desperately that they will steal campaign emails, present it as their own, and justify it as politics as usual. You never got to know the man who is known not only as a businessman but as a philanthropist, but that’s not politics-that’s real life. Politics is played in a bubble far away from churches and charities where theft and lying are seen as a detractor to the will of a man. These are the people Scott is winning to his side. Frankly-you can have the policy wonks and political justifiers. I’ll take the church members, the business people, the mechanics, the teachers, the physicians, the police officers and countless others. You keep the hacks and conspiracy theorists. You also never realized how important in a political race it is to have a candidate with deep roots in the community. Scott has built a reputation beyond reproach-have you guys ever thought to wonder why these attacks gain no traction? You should, but then that would require reasoning that seems beyond your command. People don’t buy these attacks because they know the man and your accusations don’t line up.
I don’t know why I keep arguing with you folks. I’ll let it be. See you June 9th.
Jay D, Rigell has already done 6 debates. Where were you? You expect another debate to occur in the next two weeks? I hope you’re joking. I would expect that all of our candidates – especially those with the best chance of winning – are absolutely swamped with campaign appearances in the last two weeks before the primary. If they aren’t, well…maybe that shows that they don’t really have a chance.
Regarding the debates themselves, I think that all of the candidates have realized that there are actually very few “undecideds” that attend the debates, so it is NOT a particularly effective way for a candidate to spend his/her time trying to get votes. I actually sat next to an “undecided” at the Tea Party debate and have kept in touch with him since. Very cool guy who had done his own research on all of the candidates prior to attending. Afterwards, he went to one of Scott Rigell’s breakfast meetings. He also attended another Rigell event where Rigell spent more time answering this guy’s questions one on one. Sure enough, he’s now a Rigell supporter. Rigell has been working hard the whole time and has run a first class campaign all the way. Add to that the fact that he is well known and well respected in the community (running a great business here for 20 years will do that). That’s why he’s winning.
Kelly in Virginia:
I was asked to assist Vote America in the tabulation of last night’s straw poll at the Lynchburg debate. While children under the legal voting age were allowed to vote, their votes were not included in the final tabulation. Vote America did an excellent job in not only the format of the debate, but also in the voter guides that they handed out, as well as how they handled the straw poll.
If you are interested, the “kid vote” was as follows:
Mike McPadden: 9
Jim McKelvey: 7
Ron Ferrin: 3
Laurence Verga: 1
Robert Hurt: 0
Feda Morton: 0
Ken Boyd: 0
It’s striking to me that for months, many of the frequent bloggers on this matter were requesting polling data. Now that polling data had been provided, it’s not good enough. My guess is it would never be good enough as long as it showed anything but the blogger’s choice as in the lead. That being said name recognition is a major factor in winning elections. Mr. Rigell is well known in the community. Add this to his solid conservative stand and considerable backing both inside and out of VA02 makes him a front runner.
I must thank all of you who have so blatantly attacked Mr. Rigell over the last few months for making my mind up on 8 June 2010. Yes, I will be voting for Mr. Rigell.
V/r
An observation, there are some Rigell hacks with insomnia working overtime monitoring the blogs to thwart the coming waves of attacks on their candidate, given the times of the posts above.
And in plagiarizing “turbo”, congratulations to Captain and “Naval Reservist and A-6 Bombardier Navigator Ben Loyola.” on his endorsement by the executive board of the HR Tea Party this morning. The surprise to me during Karen Hurd’s extensive interview with Ben this morning on WYRM radio, was that he is not retired military, and is still subject to recall. At an event last July he mentioned taking flight physicals to maintain his rating.
@ DJ – Sorry. had a late night Reagan moment, “Here we go again …”; another propaganda piece posted as news. When it’s called polling ‘news’, but clearly only the select and edited portion the purchaser (Rigell campaign) wants public, it’s incomplete reporting (at best) and campaign propaganda (at worst), unless the intent was not a news story, but a simple cut and paste FYI from one campaign’s web promo? However, you did get the chatter going, which is great for BD.
Question: Seems like a waste of cash to poll only name recognition. One could intellectually reason that other data points (like voter choice) were also polled during the phone calls. Why would Rigell campaign only share the name recognition results?
[...] to a poll released by the Rigell campaign yesterday, Loyola has a favorable rating of 21% and is polling at 6% of [...]
Jay D, Please read the entire post from DJ (above). This wasn’t just a name identification poll. The ballot test shows the “voter choice” as you want to call it. The ballot test shows 47% choosing Rigell, 10% for Mizusawa, etc. Please read for yourself. Geez. DJ posted the relevant parts above, but Rigell has publicized the source, so it’s easy to find. http://www.scottrigell.com/poll/poll.pdf
Plagiarize all ya want TimJ, Permission granted friend.
I was discussing candidates advertised naval experience with a friend who corrected me when I mentioned that Loyola was a naval reserve pilot.. my friend told me Ben is a navigator.. it’s a bit off topic but does a bombardier navigator also share piloting duties? co-pilot?
@ Richard, I’ve been in sales/marketing/advertising for over 30 years and understand better than most how to sell inferior products via testimonials, cherry picked data, and hefty ad budgets. I have no problem with Scott hiring POS; my issue was that the ‘story’ wasn’t news – it was PR fluff. Down 37 points? Sure - in name recognition, which is very different from voter support.
And you’re wrong. I came in without a pick, hunting for the candidate with the most integrity, intelligence, and credibility. I crossed Rigell off as another lightweight after viewing BD podcasts, his website, and attending VBTP’s Aril forum. I’ve never begrudged Scott’s money or community status and I trust he’s every bit the good guy you know. I have argued this is not enough to qualify him as being even close to the best of the field. After rigorous research, I selected Bert Mizusawa as best meeting my criteria (integrity, intelligence, credibility). And I figure the guy that lead soldiers, kept his cool, and risked his life under heavy enemy fire, is likely to have no problem with Capital Hill. Past actions are the best indicator of future performance. (Everyone should read the chapter on the FIREFIGHT AT PANMUNJOM, which is even more relevant given the current situation with North Korea.) http://bertmizusawa.com/?p=94
Negative attacks? I’ve simply pointed out the wide chasm between what your candidate says, and what he’s actually done – and verified all with data and Scott’s own recorded quotes and deeds. After America elected Obama, with so little research into his background and who had such a light resume, I thought we wanted different in 2010/ 2012?
mr. Stanley, thanks for sharing.
Jay D, I respect your decision. I actually really like Mizusawa. Unlike others (specifically Taylor, Loyola, Maulbeck, and Sandlin), Mizusawa has not resorted to negative attacks on Rigell or stolen a Rigell document and issued it as his own. He seems like a decent guy. My problem with Mizusawa is that he isn’t local. You can argue all you want that he has a house here (which I think is actually questionable), but he just isn’t local. The man lives in DC – maybe for good reasons, but the fact remains that he isn’t local. People don’t even know how to say his name. He HAS managed to get his name recognition up to 52%, which is probably based on all the direct mail he has sent out lately. Nevertheless, he’s only polling at 10% with less than 2 weeks til the primary.
That leads me to my next point. I say this in the friendliest way possible, but please READ the actual poll results. Rigell’s 37 point lead is NOT in name recognition. Rigell’s name recognition is 86%. By my count (and you can see for yourself by reading the poll), Rigell’s name recognition lead is 28% over his next closest rival in name recognition. Rigell’s lead in “favorables” is actually 42% over his next closest rival in favorables. And in actual “who you would vote for if the election was held today” (i.e. ballot test), THAT is where Rigell’s lead is 37% over the next nearest rival, which happens to be Mizusawa at 10%. I understand that perhaps it was confusing to look at a bunch of numbers at first, but that is what the poll results showed.
You can see it all for yourself since it is all public. http://www.scottrigell.com/poll/poll.pdf
“turbo”, the A-6 pilot does the job of a taxi driver to get the “Bombardier Navigator” or “BN”, which Ben is, to the vicinity of the target. The “BN” then takes control of the aircraft to position it correctly by using his electronic “pickle” during the bombing run or missile launch. After the target is engaged and the weapons are launched by the “BN”, the pilot takes back control from the “BN” and drives the aircraft back home to land on the carrier.
In a Bio which profiled Ben several years ago in a Naval Aviation magazine, he was qualified and has launched Harpoon Antiship Missiles in combat as well as Rockeye cluster bombs, was qualified to launch nuclear weapons, as well as qualified for launching all NATO air to ground ordinance.
In trolling through some other Biographical profiles done on Ben when he was in charge of Lighter than Air (LTA) Electronic Warfare program, Ben was the first “BN” to fire the Harpoon Antiship Missile in combat during an attack against Libyan Nanuchka class and other missile ships that were shooting at our Carriers and P-3 Orions, including his aircraft, during the Gulf of Sidra confrontations during the Reagan years. He also conducted Rockeye cluster bomb and other missile attacks on other targets flying multiple sorties day and night.
In discussing his service with him I asked him about decorations he received for combat and he mentioned that he was awarded the Air Medal with Combat ‘V’ (Valor) for his service during these hostilities.
@Jay D and other Bert fans- call the campaign and help do lit drops! Volunteers needed!
@ LC. Thank you for the link. I read this memo last night and again this morning. Without a doubt the poll indicates Rigell’s name recognition is highest and folks have a favorable feeling towards him. However, and I also mean this in the friendliest of ways … without actual poll questions, it’s impossible to analyze the weight or reliability of the data. I can review the data headings: “Heard of/ Favorable/ Unfavorable”. Translation (and likely poll question): “Have you heard of Scott Rigell? How would you describe your feelings towards him – favorable or unfavorable?”
The poll shows Rigell leads by a wide margin in name recognition and I congratulate him, his campaign, and his media/ad team (and budget) for that result. I’m not inferring this is a bogus poll, just explaining the memo does NOT translate into empirical data to support DJ’s headline: “Polls: Scott Rigell… Winning Handily in VA-02 …”. Again, I’m a 30 year marketing veteran very familiar with market research and trained to read what data is provided AND what data is left off the page. I respect everyone’s right to choose the candidate that is the best individual fit and to use a criterion that best reflects his or her own compass. However, for anyone seriously interested in exploring the reliability of poll data, may I suggest a quick review here and you will ‘get’ what I’m trying to explain: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll
Jay D, The reason the title is “Rigell winning” is due to the information in the next paragraph (ballot test) showing who respondents would vote for. “Scott Rigell’s name identification advantage has propelled him into a strong lead on the
ballot test garnering 47% of the vote followed by Mizusawa (10%), Taylor (9%), Loyola
(6%), and Maulbeck (1%).” It’s too bad the polling company didn’t lay it out in a column (rather than sentence) which would have been easier to see and compare like the name recognition/favorable/unfavorable information.
LC – I saw it, but again, invite you to learn more about opinion polls via the previous link. Read the section: “Potential for inaccuracy.” Also, it’s common to churn out two data packages after a poll – one for the client and one for the client’s press releases/ media campaign. This is the press release version. Again, I’m not saying poll is bogus, just noting there is absolutely zero chance one could responsibly conclude (from the available information provided) this memo translates into ‘handily winning’. Also, note the poll date: May 17 – fully 4 weeks in front of an election, when only Rigell had the cash for TV ads. I suspect most voters are just now waking up? Plus other candidates are now getting message out via airwaves, mailing, guest spots, etc. as we go into the final stretch.
However, I have thoroughly enjoyed conversation with another data geek and will continue to challenge others to think and not accept blindly ANY campaign’s press/media literature.
I track Congressional Races and have been following the Second Congressional Primary from a distance.
The Current Incumbent, Glenn Nye, sits on the House Armed Services Committee and the Committee for Veterans Affairs.
I reviewed the qualifications of each candidate for the Republican Primary and would make my choice based on pragmatic rationale, if I lived in your district.
I believe Bert Misuzawa has the best qualifications by far. It’s a “No Brainer”.
He was top of his class at West Point. He is a decorated Military Veteran and a Harvard Law Graduate. He was also a former professional staff member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, in addition to his other Military related accomplishments.
As, I understand it, the frontrunner is a Car Salesman. What does a Car Salesman know about the needs of the Military?
As voters in the second Congressional District, you are all (in a sense) employers of the next Congressman who will hold this seat.
As employers, you owe it to yourselves, to make your choice based on the Candidate with the best qualifications.That is how people are hired in the working world.
Please do not succumb to money controlling the outcome of this campaign.
Phil Fleming+
Montgomery, Alabama
Go BERT! Come out and walk for Bert!
Phil,
If you’re closely following the race then you know that every candidate has a background in the military. The ‘car dealer’ as you deride him is a Marine reservist, home to a Marine Corps father and son to a 3rd generation Marine.
No one has second-guessed or doubted Bert’s qualifications; they speak for themselves. While you may have a preference in the race, deriding or dismissing someone’s military service, regardless of branch or commitment is something that no one will stand for in this district.
Jay D,
I’m not on the campaign, I don’t have access to the campaign internals, but I did ask for them, I hate one page summaries of spin. That being said, there’s little reason to doubt the veracity of the POS poll. The sample size is small, and primaries are difficult to predict, but the results will still be in the same ballpark. Contrast the reaction to the Fimian/Herrity poll (Herrity’s people going nuts) to the 2nd District poll; people were expecting Rigell to be far ahead, that’s why there’s been little pushback from anyone on the polling results.
DJ – I don’t doubt the veracity of the polling (and if I gave that impression, my apologies), but I just cannot make it to the one-line conclusion, without more data. Guess this old marketing hack’s been around too long and understands how easily (and often) data is manipulated and cherry picked to produce desired outcome. That being said, I agree. Who needed a poll to test candidate with the highest name recognition or ballot test? On May 17th, his TV ads were running and, as far as I’m aware, no other candidate was spending significant cash on media, other than Scott, prior to the 17th? My response should have been … “No duh, Sherlock”.
Anyways, congrats to Scott on the poll results and sorry for going off on this earlier. I just hate spin.
And … GO BERT!
I agree with you whole-heartedly. I actually was not apt to posting this, same way we didn’t post Hurt’s last week, but since Fimian released his as well I just threw all three into a quick post.
38 comments later…. haha
As a voter in the 5th I looked at the nice tidy article which included Robert Hurts own numbers as reason he has the GOP nomination. Hmm, it’s just that with only 300 people being polled and they don’t suggest what question was asked except “Robert Hurt has significantly increased his name ID” Name ID? With all the other Candidates exposing Hurts worst votes I wonder if the “Name ID” is positive.
Since it was paid for by Robert Hurt I suspect they had to find something that made Hurt look good. Why not a question like ‘who would you vote for on June 8th question?’ Name ID, Obama has great name ID but will you vote for him in 2012?
Sounds like LC is a Rigell staffer
Phil,
The previous GOP incumbent was not a veteran and she did just fine representing the 2nd District and its military issues. Just because someone is/isn’t a veteran doesn’t make them anymore qualified to hold this seat than anyone else.
The district is just not military either, and their interests are just as important to this area as is the military.
Also, for the record, the current congressman Glenn Nye never wore the uniform of this country.
@Bill Stanley-
How familiar are you with vote-america.org? I went online to find out about the company, and it looked like vote-america.org was owned by a marketing company, Envision Marketing, LLC (one of the debate co-sponsors).
Also, even though they had information about all the candidates in their handout, their website only has information about Feda Kidd Morton.
Robert Hurt is going to be a big problem for the GOP if he wins this primary.People please remember Virgil Goode only lost by 727 votes and he had the support of 99.5% of the GOP and we didn’t have the Tea party back in 2008.Mark my words if Hurt wins the primary get ready for another two years of Perriello.
Man, no one called me for the poll…
http://yankeephil.blogspot.com/2010/10/hurt-supporters-outnumbered-moveon-folk.html
The times – they are a changing.
Fimian is now cash even with Connolly – it is now down to the votes.
And the latest polls show Fimian ahead, but don’t let up. We haven’t crossed the finish line yet.
I have lived in the 11th District for over two decades. It is a true delight to see the ever arrogant Gerry Connolly finally on his way out.
The 11th District has, like the rest of the nation, awoken and said “what have we done” and are getting ready to undo this mistake before it gets any worse.
The choice is simple – more of the same nightmare with Gerry (and have no doubt he promises more of the same) or a re-awkening of the American dream and a new begining with Keith Fimian.
11th district it is just a nightmare. It is time to wake up – time to end it. You can do it, but only if you vote on November 2nd.
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