How anti are voters this year?
By Brian Kirwin | Wednesday, May 12th, 2010 | PoliticsIn today’s climate of angry voters, “being an incumbent or defined as the establishment is the political equivalent of wearing the scarlet letter,” said Chris Lehane, a California-based consultant who worked for Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign. (FoxNews)
It’s not the Tea Party, and it’s not just the right wing. If you’re the favorite, the incumbent, the “establishment,” it’s not turning into a feather in your cap.
Republican voters in Kentucky also are showing scant interest in their party leaders’ wishes. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell worked for months to push his GOP seatmate, Sen. Jim Bunning, out of a re-election bid, fearing Bunning would lose to a Democrat.
Florida Governor Crist? Losing in a primary so badly he drops out of the Republican Party (brilliantly covered here).
Yesterday, in West Virginia, 14-term Rep. Alan Mollohan lost the Democratic nomination for his seat. Sen. Arlen Spector is even with Rep. Joe Sestak for a May 18th primary. 17-year incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett lost his own nomination race in Utah.
Whether this translates into November energy is yet to be seen. It could snowball into an avalanche or melt into a good rain. But in primaries, it’s obvious. Nothing is controlling voters.
The FoxNews story says it’s a bipartisan thing – basically, if you work with the other Party even just a little bit, you’re toast.
Some elected officials say bipartisanship is the biggest victim of strong anti-establishment movements. One factor cited in the Utah Republicans’ rejection of Bennett, who had a lifetime rating of 84 percent from the American Conservative Union, was his bid to forge a health care compromise with Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore.
After a GOP win in Massachusetts, anything can happen this year. And one thing is clear: The inside track hasn’t been the path to victory.
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The right wants to jeer him. The left wants to censor him. Moderates usually want both. Brian Kirwin is a political consultant and public relations strategist in Virginia Beach with a lightning-rod flair. Brian also serves on the VB Arts & Humanities Commission and frequently appears on Hampton Roads theatrical stages, if only to prove that all actors aren’t liberals. Kirwin’s columns stir up debate and hit the political scene with no punches pulled.
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20 Responses to "How anti are voters this year?"
I hope anti-incumbent fever continues. Voters have long been plagued with short memories. Quick turnover for bad decisions made is the only message our representatives will understand.
The anti-incumbent mood will not dissipate in the next 6 months. It will only get stronger. The water in the pressure cooker is hot and will continue to get hotter. Election Day is when people will have a chance to blow off some steam. They will take that chance.
Brian writes that “If you’re the favorite, the incumbent, the ‘establishment,’ it’s not turning into a feather in your cap.” Perhaps a not so subtle dig at Mr. Rigell? Grassroots campaigning, cold hard cash, a credible candidate and a good campaign platform are still the keys to winning elections whether you’re the establishment or the incumbent or an insurgent.
Utah’s nominating system is totally whack. What happened to Bennett this year reminds me of what could have happened to John Warner in 1996 if he would have had to go through a GOP nominating convention. Warner would certainly have lost to Jim Miller, or just about anyone else that year.
This is the same thing that will keep Robert Hurt from winning the 5th district primary. Along with his votes for same sex marriage and the largest tax increase in Virginia’s history.
A macro template helps to explain the general feeling of the country, but each race must be analyzed individually to truly understand what is going on in these races.
It’s easy to look at five to six races and spot a trend, but just because there is a trend does not mean the hypothesis becomes a law.
It’s dangerous to buy into that philosophy. It can breed complacency and arrogance in a campaign. Candidates may begin to assume that they are part of something bigger than their race. They might believe that the mood of the country will carry them across the line regardless the intra-district politics that have dictated elections for the past 30+ years.
As republicans, we must be wary of that mind set and we must know our district better than some Californian democratic pundit. It’s nice to think that we can simply nominate an outsider to run for Congress and they will win, but that is a leap of faith I’m not willing to make.
will white: please cite the bill allowing same sex marriage in the Commonwealth that Sen. Hurt voted in favor of. I think you mean something else.
@Will White
What the hell are you talking about? Hurt never voted for “same sex marriage” you liar.
And is it true that you work for Mike McPadden or another candidate, Mr. White? That’s what the rumor-mill says.
Im not sure if Hurt voted for same sex marriage but he damn sure voted to give same sex couples domestic partner benefits.You ask where the proof is ? Look up HB 945. Maybe Kelley in Virginia and Timothy Watson before you start calling someone a liar you should learn a little more about YOUR candidate.
Timothy why didn’t you complain about Will’s comment about Hurt voting for the largest tax increase in Va’s history ? Can’t say much about that one can you ?
dennis: domestic partner benefits is a far cry from same sex marriage. separate issues.
as for why Sen Hurt voted for the domestic partner benefits–I’ve not asked him that question specifically. many voted for that bill in hopes that the state could avoid litigation.
Kelley in Virginia voting for huge tax hikes and voting to give same sex couples the same benefits as domestic partners have is not going to get my vote.I happen to believe marriage means ONE MAN AND ONE WOMAN and ANYONE who votes to give same-sex couples the same rights will NEVER get my vote. Kelley in Virginia please tell me why are you supporting this man.
Chirp Chirp Chirp Timothy Watson cat got your keypad ?
Uh, maybe I have more important things to do than argue with someone that posts lies online under two different names every 30 minutes?
Still waiting on that vote where Hurt supported same sex marriage you liar.
It’s funny how someone that’s probably bought and paid for by Mike McPadden (Will White) is bashing Hurt on same sex marriage. Especially when McPadden said that he doesn’t support a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman (and the Defense of Marriage Act [DOMA] by extension):
http://timboyer.blogspot.com/2010/04/mike-mcpadden-says-no-to-federal.html
Brian – Just when I was begining to think you were all brawn and no brains, this is one of the most intelligent things I’ve ever seen written on Bearing Drift.
…Oh, wait – you just copied and pasted.
However, I still agree the post if that counts for anything
dennis: look at Hurt’s literature: he too believes marriage is only between man & woman. he voted for extension of benefits to partners. that was a vote to get the Commonwealth in line with the law.
i’m voting for Hurt because he is: young, charismatic, conservative & can beat Perriello.
Timothy you are right Iam a Mike McPadden supporter unlike you I decided who I was going to support.Voting to give same-sex couples domestic partner benefits is voting in support of same-sex marriage. Timothy you don’t mind calling me a liar on this blog would you care to do it face to face big boy ? Dennis thanks for setting the record straight.Kelley your idea of a conservative and mine are very different.
William, please refrain from dirty talk with other commenters, thanks big boy
Im sorry but he did start it.Everyone used to call my dad William as a jr i got stuck with Will.
This is the same thing that will keep Robert Hurt from winning the 5th district primary. Along with his votes for same sex marriage and the largest tax increase in Virginia’s history.
Translates to whoever Will White is, he is a pretty smart cookie. Hurt goes down in flames.
Kelly???
“I’m voting for Hurt because he is: young (like a punk), charismatic (maybe in a snotty country club frat boy way), conservative (I agree) & can beat Perriello (I don’t agree, too much maccca in his Hampton Sydney daze, I mean days. Don’t worry McKelvey will do the research for you!)”
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