Guest Post: Analysis of 2nd District GOP Fundraising Numbers; Does Rigell have a spending problem?
By Guest Post | Sunday, April 18th, 2010 | PoliticsGuest post by John Rolfe
The reporting deadline for the first quarter campaign finance reports was Thursday, and I was sure to make my quarterly pilgrimage to the FEC website to review the Second District reports. This reporting period more than any other this cycle, highlights some clear strengths and weaknesses in the money race.
Ben Loyola
This quarter appears to be the worst quarter Loyola’s had so far. He only raised $11,751 from donors (the least he’s raised) and he spent $92,297 (the most he’s spent). I wonder how long he will be willing to continue to throw his money away on this race, his personal loans make up 92% of his campaign’s total receipts this cycle. On the subject of his personal loans, I don’t recall seeing a more confusing set of transactions on a finance report. In Q1 alone, he made 7 loans totaling $226,000 and he made 2 loan repayments totaling $155,000. In Q4 of 2009, Loyola took back $445,000 of his personal money. All of this indecision with his loans leaves me wondering whether he sees his campaign as a wise investment.
Ed Maulbeck and Scott Taylor
Both candidates failed to bring in a substanial amount of money, and their reports were fairly unremarkable. This is already a seven figure race and if they can’t even raise six figures by this point, I don’t see either of them being competitive. Maulbeck ended the period with $17,878 and Taylor has $8,327 cash on hand.
Update from Scott Taylor:
Scott Taylor received almost 400 individual donations this past quarter. This number far exceeded Taylor’s competitors in a showing of great grassroots support.
“I am humbled by the time, talent, and treasure that people have contributed to our campaign. We continue to build momentum everywhere we go, and are earning every vote and every penny.” said Taylor.
Jessica Sandlin
As of this writing, I couldn’t find her report on the FEC website, but the Virginian Pilot reports that she only raised $2,234.
Bert Mizusawa
General Mizusawa actually raised more money from donors than Scott Rigell and the other Republican candidates in Q1. Mizusawa was able to raise money from all over the country, but I noticed one big problem — I didn’t see one donation from Virginia Beach or Norfolk. He seems to have done a great job of raising money from almost all of the localities in Northern Virginia, but I don’t understand how someone can make it throught two fundraising quarters without receiving at least one reportable contribution from the largest and second largest cities in the district. On a different note, you can learn a lot about a campaign by how it spends its money — I thought it was interesting to see SRCP Media, the media firm behind the Swift Boat ads in 2004, in the disbursements.
Scott Rigell
Rigell’s campaign brought in more money than Glenn Nye ($408,280 vs $363,034) for the third quarter in a row. But it looks like Scott Rigell has a little bit of a spending problem. To make his spending problem easy to understand I calculated his burn rate (the percentage of receipts that were spent) for each quarter he’s filed a report.
First, I looked at his overall burn rate with the total contributions.
• Q3 in 2009: 9%
• Q4 in 2009: 59%
• Q1 in 2010: 71%
• Total for the cycle: 42%
Next, I looked at the burn rate with just individual contributions (excluding candidate contributions and loans and PAC contributions).
• Q3 in 2009: 18%
• Q4 in 2009: 113%
• Q1 in 2010: 228%
• Total for the cycle: 98%
Scott Rigell spent 228% of the money he received from donors in the first quarter! Without all of the money he’s put in his race, it doesn’t look like his campaign would be able to stay afloat. I know Rigell is willing to spend whatever it takes to win this race, but after a while, it might not be difficult for people to accuse Rigell of trying to buy the election.
Glenn Nye has been working on building up his cash on hand, and he passed the millon dollar mark. If Rigell is serious about winning the election in November (if he wins the nomination, of course), he should probably be building his cash on hand more aggressively. Whether he raises more or spends less, it might be wise to avoid bailing out his campaign with his personal money. He may also want to take advantage of the success he’s had on Facebook and use that as a tool to expand his donor base with small donations.
In fairness to Rigell, even though his expenditures were very high, I suspect he packs his schedule with events and meet-and-greets and doesn’t spend as much time doing donor calls as many other campaigns do elsewhere.
Regarding the numbers, both Scott Rigell and his campaign manager, Jason Miyares, made statements….
From Scott Rigell:
“I continue to be humbled and honored by the support our campaign has received from the Second District. Our campaign gains momentum every day as the people who live and work in every part of the Second District express their disappointment with our freshman incumbent representative and become supporters and volunteers for our campaign. Our message of fiscal accountability, job creation and changing Congress continues to resonate with local voters, and they are ready to send me to Washington to put America on the right track.”
And, from Jason Miyares, Rigell’s Campaign Manager:
“The individual donors who have known and worked with Scott in the community for over 20 years trust Scott, and they are generously investing in our campaign for better government. Scott has matched their donations with his own money as a sign that he is 100% committed to winning this race.”
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44 Responses to "Guest Post: Analysis of 2nd District GOP Fundraising Numbers; Does Rigell have a spending problem?"
Interesting analysis. It seems that Taylor and Sandlin are flat broke, Bert can’t raise any money from anyone in the district(I counted a grand total of 3 people from the 2nd District who gave to him), Loyola can’t raise any money period, and Scott Rigell has spent money aggressively while running an aggressive campaign.
However, I’ve noticed he’s on TV, he’s on the radio, sign blitzs, etc., so he is spending money, but he is spending money to win and defeat an incumbent.
Yes, campaigns are quite expensive, and Rigell has still raised more money from more donors than any of his opponents COMBINED. Republicans didn’t care how much George W. Bush raised and spent in 2000 or 2004, they just were glad he defeated Al Gore and John Kerry.
All I care about is picking up this seat in the fall so Nancy Pelosi is no longer speaker. Running an aggressive campaign is expensive, but I’m glad he has the firepower (and the will to use it) to defeat Nye.
The next question that should be asked is: What has Rigell spent his money on?
Sure, he’s spent money, but it all works toward the greater good. The money Rigell is spending now works toward the general election. The media buys, polling, connecting with the community at large. He has begun to wage a battle not only for the nomination but also for the general election. This is welcome news for the GOP. The frontrunner is positioning himself to easily transition in the race against Nye. This is no disrespect to the field, but as your analysis implies-most of these candidates have little chance in the primary let alone the general election.
In the end cash is cash. The bottom line Rigell trails Nye in fundraising, but I believe these early expenditures will better position him in the general-even if he eventually raises fewer dollars than Nye.
This blog post is about money…get ready for “wealth envy” comments and not an anlysis of money and campaigns. I’d like to hear how the GOP opponents of Rigell will close the money gap versus Nye, but I think we’ll here whining and moaning instead.
Please don’t complain… tell us how the oter GOP guys will close the money gap. It’s a very important question.
There is a bunch of money on the sidelines within the district. I wonder why that is??
Cash is KING!
Of course Scott spent more money than others. First, he has raised buckets of cash from second district donors who love him. Second, and just as importantly, he is running a top notch campaign.
Pulling 600 people for your campaign kickoff isn’t easy and it isn’t cheap. That costs money. Hosting hundreds of events isn’t cheap or free either. Going on NETWORK TV isn’t cheap. Going on radio isn’t cheap.
He’s been winning the right way and like it or not that costs money.
Interesting article, although I don’t see Kenny Golden mentioned anywhere in the comparisons (maybe because he doesn’t stand a chance?). Speaking of not having a chance, it looks like pretty much all the candidates except Rigell and Mizusawa are flat broke. I think Mizusawa is a great guy and would make a great candidate somwhere. The problem, as this article reports, is that he simply isn’t local. I talk to a lot of local hard core Republicans of all ages and the vast majority of them either 1) have never heard of Mizusawa or 2) if they have heard of him, can’t even pronounce his name and don’t know anything about him. On the opposite end of the spectrum, ask someone about Scott Rigell and you will likely get the response “oh yeah, he’s the Freedom Ford guy!” No other candidate can hope to come close to that name ID. Add that name ID to the fact that Rigell has hit his stride on every other area of the campaign – including fundraising, volunteers, Facebook friends, endorsements, etc. – and you have the combination for a winning campaign. No wonder Glenn Nye has his tracker at the Rigell events; he’s the man to beat.
Nye’s tracker was at the debate with all the other candidates as well. I Wonder why that is??
Jared-
He probably thought Rigell would be there.
Has Nye’s tracker appeared at anyone elses solo event? I’m not being sarcastic. I’m truly interested.
Jared: That’s covering Nye’s bases – and probably the only event where they can see the other candidates. I’m just curious – have any of the other candidates held any events worth sending a Nye tracker to? I know (only because I happened to be there) that Nye sent his tracker to Rigell’s Young Professionals event recently. It was a great event with tons of fired up people in their 20′s and 30′s.
Richard: Ha! You and I had the same thought. I wasn’t being sarcastic either; I was truly wondering whether Nye’s tracker has covered anyone else individually.
LC,
Kenny Golden is not running in the Republican primary anymore, and this is an assessment of primary candidates. I wonder if any of the others will drop out of the race entirely before the primary vote.
Nice attempt to get a lot of comments with this post’s title. The answer is no, Rigell does not have a spending problem. It’s called running to win. Rigell has the money and he’s using it. It shows he’s serious about winning the primary and isn’t arrogant in thinking that he’s a shoe-in and already acting like he’s the nominee. He’s working hard to get the nomination as he should be. We are in the last 50 or so days before the primary, of course spending levels are going to rise…unless, of course, you have no money, like Loyola, Taylor, Maulbeck and Sandlin.
Over 30k to get less than 600 people in a room in Jan. Taylor had several hundred with no money. All show.
Jared,
The money for Rigell’s kick-off wasn’t spent bribing people to come, it was spent having an awesome, first class event which you probably don’t know because you weren’t there. It really was the caliber of a gubernatorial kickoff event. If Rigell wanted to have an event at Guadalajara he could have and still had that many people show up. The amount of money spent has nothing to do with the amount of people who came, it has to do with the quality of the event.
Who is John Rolfe? Surely, not a hack I am sure. Elizabeth, it’s the big one honey.
sure
kingsmoothie: I’m aware that Golden is no longer running as a Republican (although I’m still shocked that he would do such a thing), but an analysis of his fundraising vs. the other candidates seems relevant since Nye’s numbers are referenced. If Golden continues this course of action (and I truly hope that he doesn’t), our Republican candidate will have to beat both Golden and Nye.
LC. Out of all the candidates, Rigell is most likely NOT the one who could beat Nye alone.
Fred: I disagree, but I respect your opinion. Can you help me understand why you think that? Thanks.
Nye will exploit his Church, a Church both he and McWaters helped found. Nye and his supporting groups will make it widely known Rigell voted against women not being allowed to be Elders in his Church. I also understand that within this Church there exists a pecking order whereby women fall below men followed by boys. This does not bother me, and I don’t see it as an issue in the Primary. However, when I look ahead to the General Election, this is but one huge impasse I see ahead.
Fred, this has been in the rumor mill for a while, and there are some documents floating around during the McWaters campaign that were supposed to surface with the details. Have you seen them?
Fred: You mean Scott Rigell and Jeff McWaters go to a church that follows the traditional biblical model of men in leadership?
So do Southern Baptists, I don’t see anyone disqualifying Bill Clinton from the White House (he was Southern Baptist).
So do Catholics, I don’t see anyone disqualifying Bob McDonnell, Mario Cuomo, or Marco Rubio.
So does the Mormon Church, I don’t see anyone disqualifying Harry Reid from being Senate Majority Leader.
It would be disastrous for the Dems to bring up religion in attacking Rigell, it would be a sure fire way for his campaign to turn it around that they are against People of Faith and fire up Evangelicals to vote.
Fred G. Sanford, proof of your statements sir, please. How exactly did Rigell vote against women being leaders in the church? Dates and times please? Otherwise it’s gossip.
Separation of church and state. That is our law. So I guess anyone can run, even if they were raised by a Muslim. This is America.
Fred: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHlNHGb1oAc
Gubernatorial quality? Seriously? he is a Congressional candidate with 6 others, not even the nominee. Friggin arrogant. How about you win the Congressional seat before you spend over
600 dollars a head at a kickoff party!
For the record, some of that money was spent to get people to his kickoff.
I got an invitation in the mail that implied it was a fundraiser; IE it cost money to go.
The day of and the day preceding the event, I was robocalled twice and personally called once asking if I would attend and informing me that it was free.
Also regarding the kick-off, I would like to know how Rigell could have possibly said he didn’t know Bob McDonnell was going to be in town when he most certainly got an invitation to Bob’s thank you party at Huff, Poole, and Mahoney that was being held right next door. Quite interesting to be because those invitations were sent out before the date of the kickoff was decided.
As for Rigell having a problem? I don’t see it like that. If he were writing himself big checks when he ran low, that is one thing, but matching contributions dollar for dollar is completely different. I agree with the others on here, it shows how serious he is.
My fear is that perhaps the general population of the 2nd district will grow tired of Rigell and begin asking themselves; do we really want a car dealer in congress? He seems like a nice guy, but is he better than Nye who has 2 years of on the job training and a voting record that pretty good?
Everyone on here can talk about how Nye was allowed to vote no, but trust me when I say that stuff will not fly in the general elections. You try explaining that to the average voter without getting a glazed over look.
Chris-
If you’ve noticed anything about Scott Rigell it should be that he is doing everything to the best of his ability. He kicked off his campaign and he sent a clear message: I’m in this to win and I’m bringing my best.
Some other things you should notice from simply paying attention….Rigell built his business on customer service. So when someone asked for magnetic bumper stickers on a FB post he went out and spent the money to get them. Why? They cost much more than bumper stickers. He did it because he believes in being responsive and he heard people when they said that they would put the magnetic ones on, but not the stickers, I understand they can’t keep them in the office.
When someone asked him about new media and getting out his message in non-traditional ways. He put together a DVD that he regularly hands out at events. This tells me again that he is responsive to the needs of others and is willing ot go further than the other candidates.
When Scott Rigell looked at the strength of the GOP field and Glenn Nye he decided to step up traditonal media-TV and radio. That’s simply poli-sci 101. Every dollar spent in the primary should work toward the general, but you can’t run ads in the general if you don’t win the primary. So… I ask, what would you do? I’d do a media buy in the primary. I think you would too.
Scott Rigell is running to win . He’s running to win offerring his best.
As a constituent and a GOP loyalist I want everyone’s best. Rigell is delivering-time and again.
So what’s the problem? It’s not spending.
Rigell has money in his campaign and he’s allocating resources to win (business term).
Perhaps you’d prefger him to not spend it? Do people here advocate that the most likely GOP nominse not raise his name ID versus Nye and spend money in the primary? If that’s your position then that’s inane.
Do you want him on June 9th to sit back and say, “If only I’d done a little more-I could’ve won.” I really think that’s it. You realize that if Rigell flexes his political muscle to his fullest potential then he will win. Therefore any attempt to criticize Rigell and his “spending” will result in his political opponents jumping all over it. Too bad for his opponents Rigell won’t back down. Rigell will not sit back on June 9th and say, “I wish I had done more.” That’s bad news-for some.
Kathy,
Separation of Church and State is not the law…that statement is NOT in the U.S. Constitution. The First Amendment prohibits the Congress from ESTABLISHING a State religion (i.e., the Church of England) and that is it. It is not meant to make void the practice, or display of religous documents in the public areana.
As for the voting against women at Rigell’s church. The same accusation was supposed to come out about McWater’s and I rallied against it when I heard. The folks who founded the church, poured over the scriptures and determined that only men should be elders in the church. This is my understanding of the scriptures and every church I have attended interprets it this way. No I know some don’t and that is their belief.
I also don’t believe it is relevant to an election either, but some may make issue of it (attack ads), but it will backfire. Also, if any one is deciding not to back Rigell just because this might become an issue that might be used against him, they need to really rethink their position (Fred).
I believe Scott Rigell will be a great addition to the House of Representatives. I hope and pray that the party will come together after this primary and focus on defeating DEMOCRATS.
So, why did Rigell pull his advertising from BD?
J.M., separation of church and state certainly is the law under our constitution and that little bit you quoted proves it. Can’t establish does denote separation!
Otherwise, I believe you to be correct. It does not ban religious expression, also a part of the Constitution, that does not cross the line of giving government favor to one particular religion.
The religious right needs to understand that this wall of separation is their friend and not their enemy. Some see it otherwise, as they feel they are in the majority and that government is an appropriate tool for forced indoctrination and a punitive fist used against those refusing to conform to their specification. The truth is, it also protects Christians from the same plight, forced indoctrination and punitive attacks. Also, we hold that feeding them to lions to also be unconstitutional. It prevents tyranny of the majority, as well as tyranny from an elected radical not sharing the majority view.
A belief that there is no higher being is still a belief that can not be proven. Christians should be using the wall of separation against the imposition of atheism and general intolerance of Christianity.
Much is said about our deist founding fathers. I think they played more at being deists for the sake of unity and preventing favoritism. Just put a religious text in front of two believers, ask for an interpretation and just see how long they argue back and forth about who is more correct. Nevermind the fact they generally agree and share the same faith, the debate is likely to be long lasting.
We have a wall of separation and with good reason.
Tim J –
The Rigell campaign did not renew with BD, from what I understand, because they didn’t think the gains from ads on BD justified the cost. Our rate sheet can be found at http://bearingdrift.com/images/ads/rate_sheet.pdf
Britt,
The wording in the first amendment was very deliberate. The founders did not want a national religion to be established to replace the state religions and “independent” religions that were in existence. They did not want a national religion to restrict or even outlaw the other religions. This is what many people had fled in the old country. Even the deists and anti-organized religion founders thought an understanding of both the Creator, the natural rights provided by the Creator (only a few of which are addressed in the Constitution), and even the Bible where vital for the success and continuation of the Republic. They encouraged the study of the Bible in the schools and instituted prayer in Congress for that reason. They published bibles which they recommended for use in public schools. The “wall of separation” came from Jefferson in a letter to a church member (or members) who had sent him a letter expressing concern that their State sponsored religion would override their “independent” religion. Jefferson assured them it would not.
Chris,
Having sat down for an exclusive interview with Rigell immediately after his kickoff, found Bearing Drift Live! Rigell Campaign Kick-Off and you can hear the audio for yourself, I asked him that specific question about McDonnell, I did not get the idea that he was lying or surprised he was in town, just surprised he was coming to the event
just my two cents having talking to him immediately after
Rigell is spending too much money, but it is his money after all. The writer of the post says that Rigell spent all of his contributions so far – or words to that effect. What if you turned that around and said that Rigell has spent all of his own money so far and saved his contributor’s money for the general election onslaught? Depends on how you look at it, right? Rigell is invested in this campaign no matter how you look at it. The blog writer’s assertion that voters may have a problem with “Rigell buying the election” is his opinion and not one based on any fact. Mark Warner bought the governor’s mansion – nobody cared. Jeff McWaters put in a whole lot of his own money for a state senate seat. Nobody cared. Frank Wagner. Ditto.
BTW – why are these other guys on the race? Simple – ego. They can’t bare to get out of the limelight. People are actually asking them for their opinion on issues and they get to say what their opinion is. It makes them feel important. Funny how after all their talking these guys aren’t raising any money. Why can’t they drop out of the race and just become contributors to Bearing Drift?
Ah, many can run for Congress, but few can become Bearing Drift contributors. The application list is long, but those that make it to the “back-end” are few.
I was thinking the same thing, J.R.!
So Ron wants a bunch of “drop-outs” to become contributors to BD? Apparently he has an “intellectually challenged” opinion of the BD contributors and the candidates who are hanging in there.
Ron, I will excuse your last comment as simply the exuberance of a supporter’s mouth getting way ahead of his brain.
Every candidate in this race has an investment of time, treasure, and sweat. I believe EVERY man and woman is in it because they feel passionate about making a difference. Many have taken out personal loans, put their lives and families ‘on hold’, and self-funded expenses also.
You are grossly insulting to suggest their passion and sacrifice is simply ego and limelight.
Ron, Barack obama had the endorsements, buckets o money, was well organized and won the election. To throw the less wealthy candidates under the bus is shameful and reduces your opinion to what it really is sunshine. This election is being derailed and the republican right is closing ranks with the democrat left in that they are choosing the winner of the primary, screw the voters. Screw the dumb poor voter whose opinions, information and involvement in the primary process is gravely diminished. Just drive to the polls and vote for OUR guy that WE chose for you.
The problem we have in congress is money. Want a seat, get the money. Got money? Run for glory. I got money and its great man.. you can buy all sorts of stuff and donate it to causes and get warm fuzzys.. you can fund candidates and ride coat tails to neat places, win friends and influence your business.. and make more moolah. But having big donors, living in high cotton and having plenty of zort on hand is by no means any indication that a candidate is best suited to represent the people.
Ron, Rigell is the absolute best pick for the wealthiest democrats in Va-2
but with the crime against our constitution taking place in plain view on the hill he will not be as effective as he would be if we had a right of center republican majority that could hold their nose and when there is no better option, close ranks with centrist dems when compromises are the only way to favorably influence conservative agendas.
Sometime in future elections I may support Scott but with Nye being the incumbent, Scott is smack dab in the middle of the democrat$ bull$eye..
The left wing slime machine is full of goop.. July will be sporting..
Turbo write, “Want a seat, get the money.” Well, when has it ever been different? If you want to run for Congress, you need support. How do you get your message out to get support? You raise money. Folks, this is nothing new and has been going on for more than 200 years. What’s different here is that the candidate’s you perceive as being conservative can’t raise the money. What does that tell you? It tells me that they have no support. Duh.
As Herm Edwards once said, “you play to win the game.” If you’re not in it to win it, then why are wasting everyone’s time?
As Ricky Bobby once said, “If you’re not first, you’re last.”
Let’s rally around Rigell and go kick some D-ass.
Ron, Confucius say:
War doesn’t determine who is right, war determines who is left.
We just received a release from a campaign mentioning that Rigell blew off another large candidate forum at Lake Wright that was hosted by four civic leagues.
The fallout from the Rigell no-shows could be interpreted by the campaign as “acceptable causalities” as they are putting their money and resources towards the “real” Fall campaign against Nye since the feeling is that they have already won the Primary. It will be interesting to see how these assumptions play out.
Interesting email circulating among a few civic league members.. Someone suggested holding a civic league meeting at Scotts office.. Would the other candidates be willing to meet there?
I understand that Scott is usually there early, so a 0730 civic league meeting in his office would probably work best.
Re: Rigell, assuming he wins the GOP nomination in June, much of what he is buying now will still have value. A “Rigell for Congress” sign is good now for the primay and also will be useful in general election effort. Same goes for name recognition. Name recognition is a genuinely valuable asset and Rigell’s efforts now are helping, not hurting, that effort.
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