With health insurance reform officially law, the conversation has shifted to how it will affect the political landscape for the midterm elections in November. Waffling to the last minute, freshman Representative Gerry Connolly (D-11) cast one of the deciding votes on Sunday. While he was quick to label this vote as a roadmap for success in his reelection bid, it is apparent that “change” is in the air once again.
Prior to the vote the AP pointed out that Connolly represents the wealthiest county in the country in Fairfax and that many of the taxes used to pay for the health insurance reform come from those making $200,000 or more and couples making $250,000 or more. They also noted that Connolly wasn’t invited to the healthcare love fest at George Mason University on Friday. Mason lies in the 11th district and I wonder if it wasn’t that he didn’t get an invitation, but rather because he doesn’t want to be seen as the face of the health care boondoggle in NoVA.
If Connolly wasn’t thinking about his political future leading up to this vote then he would have been more vocal in his support a long time ago. With a freshman incumbent doubting himself combined with the national sentiment that this new law is a disaster, and you’ve got a competitive race to say the least.
A friend of mine pointed out the other day that NoVA is in its own little bubble in regards to the economy. The population is heavy with government workers and wealthy families. While most areas of the country are feeling the effects of the recession (notably southern Virginia), NoVA has been left relatively unscarred. So while much of the country will go to the polls with the economy as their #1 issue, many in NoVA will go with this health law as #1.
Connolly has been consistent with his message since the vote because he really doesn’t have any other choice. He voted for it and will have to face the repercussions with the voters. He may legitimately believe (and he might) that his district truly wanted this bill to pass, but his actions seem to indicate otherwise.
His opponents, Keith Fimian and Pat Herrity, have already blatantly declared their opposition to this health insurance reform. They see an opening and are going for it full speed ahead. Both have been running on jobs and the economy but you will see them switch gears and go after Connolly hard on health care. While they certainly won’t abandon talking about the economy, look for ads going up about health care as soon as they’re comfortable that this will be the seminal issue of the campaign.
The important thing to know is if Connolly wins reelection then he will probably hold that seat for as long as he wants. The health insurance reform is the most contentious piece of legislation in a generation. If he can survive this then he can probably survive anything outside of being caught for some illegal activity or ethics violation.
The stakes are high and if any conservatives in NoVA were thinking about sitting out this race then think again. You might not get a better opportunity to take out Connolly in the future.
Interestingly, the last Democrat to hold the seat in the 11th only lasted one term and history has a way of repeating itself.
**On a side note, I apologize to the politicos out there who are probably sick to death of seeing term “waterloo” to describe anything. I admit the political hackery and as a consolation I promise to never attach “-gate” to any upcoming scandal for the rest of the year.
