The 5th District GOP is in uncharted territory. When Virgil Goode was elected to Congress in 1996 he was elected as a Democrat. Before him, we had Lewis Payne, a Democrat. Before him we had Dan Daniels, a Democrat. These were Democrats that Republicans voted for. The GOP in the 5th has never really had all of these different factions seeking victory in a nominating process. The various candidates, however, do have a path for victory in this nomination process.
Robert Hurt-For Sen. Hurt the key to victory will be convincing the voters in the 5th that he is conservative. Money and organization are not a problem for him, they are his strong points.
Jim McKelvey– Mr. McKelvey just lobbed a bombshell into this race by loaning himself $500,000. This allows him to get his name out there more and makes him a serious contender. He has also begun to expand his rhetoric to include national security and moral issues. He also received accolades for his performance in the Charlottesville Tea Party debate.
Feda Morton– Has the ability to win. She is reasoned in her message and is polished on the stump. Her main problem is finances. She must convince the primary electorate that she can raise the money necessary to win the nomination and the general. From an ideological standpoint, she has right recipe to defeat Perriello in November.
Michael McPadden– A very impressive candidate that has a great demeanor on the stump, McPadden is a candidate that many in the TEA Parties are excited about. While he has some issues raising money, his sound money and limited government advocacy has helped him tremendously. The big issues that may haunt him, though, will likely be national security and moral issues. Perriello is a shrewd politician and will likely try to paint McPadden as a fringe libertarian on these issues. That could serve to scare a lot of voters, especially, on the Southside. McPadden could avoid this by following the example of senate candidate Rand Paul, who has been able to calm voters fears on these issues by presenting himself as strong on national security and by articulating how he will specifically fight abortion. If McPadden could articulate specific things he will do to fight abortion, rather than what he specifically will not do, then he will be able to expand his base and potentially lock up the nomination.
Laurence Verga– Has an effective campaign operation. Verga has the right message for the voters. He has been trying to ride the TEA Party wave, however, so far this former Palm Beach resident has been unable to mount said wave. It really should not matter that Verga was not born in the 5th, however, that has been one big line of attack against him. His message could serve to unite both the conservative and libertarian wings of the TEA Party, however, he must do a better job of getting bang for his buck.
Ron Ferrin– Is using the soapbox of this campaign to educate voters about the issues. You have to admire that. Ferrin is making himself a player in all of this, and you never know what might come of that.
Ken Boyd– Is experienced in local government and has name recognition in Albermarle that other candidates would love to have. He could be the the under- the- radar candidate that pulls out the surprise win at the end. This becomes especially true, if all of the other candidates continue to split the vote and he has a solid voting bloc in Albermarle’s suburbs.
So that is my take on the 5th right now. Just wait a few days and this post may be rendered useless.
