State of the Race in the 5th
By Steven Osborne | Friday, February 5th, 2010 | Catch-All, PoliticsThe 5th District GOP is in uncharted territory. When Virgil Goode was elected to Congress in 1996 he was elected as a Democrat. Before him, we had Lewis Payne, a Democrat. Before him we had Dan Daniels, a Democrat. These were Democrats that Republicans voted for. The GOP in the 5th has never really had all of these different factions seeking victory in a nominating process. The various candidates, however, do have a path for victory in this nomination process.
Robert Hurt-For Sen. Hurt the key to victory will be convincing the voters in the 5th that he is conservative. Money and organization are not a problem for him, they are his strong points.
Jim McKelvey- Mr. McKelvey just lobbed a bombshell into this race by loaning himself $500,000. This allows him to get his name out there more and makes him a serious contender. He has also begun to expand his rhetoric to include national security and moral issues. He also received accolades for his performance in the Charlottesville Tea Party debate.
Feda Morton- Has the ability to win. She is reasoned in her message and is polished on the stump. Her main problem is finances. She must convince the primary electorate that she can raise the money necessary to win the nomination and the general. From an ideological standpoint, she has right recipe to defeat Perriello in November.
Michael McPadden- A very impressive candidate that has a great demeanor on the stump, McPadden is a candidate that many in the TEA Parties are excited about. While he has some issues raising money, his sound money and limited government advocacy has helped him tremendously. The big issues that may haunt him, though, will likely be national security and moral issues. Perriello is a shrewd politician and will likely try to paint McPadden as a fringe libertarian on these issues. That could serve to scare a lot of voters, especially, on the Southside. McPadden could avoid this by following the example of senate candidate Rand Paul, who has been able to calm voters fears on these issues by presenting himself as strong on national security and by articulating how he will specifically fight abortion. If McPadden could articulate specific things he will do to fight abortion, rather than what he specifically will not do, then he will be able to expand his base and potentially lock up the nomination.
Laurence Verga- Has an effective campaign operation. Verga has the right message for the voters. He has been trying to ride the TEA Party wave, however, so far this former Palm Beach resident has been unable to mount said wave. It really should not matter that Verga was not born in the 5th, however, that has been one big line of attack against him. His message could serve to unite both the conservative and libertarian wings of the TEA Party, however, he must do a better job of getting bang for his buck.
Ron Ferrin- Is using the soapbox of this campaign to educate voters about the issues. You have to admire that. Ferrin is making himself a player in all of this, and you never know what might come of that.
Ken Boyd- Is experienced in local government and has name recognition in Albermarle that other candidates would love to have. He could be the the under- the- radar candidate that pulls out the surprise win at the end. This becomes especially true, if all of the other candidates continue to split the vote and he has a solid voting bloc in Albermarle’s suburbs.
So that is my take on the 5th right now. Just wait a few days and this post may be rendered useless.
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About the author
Steven Osborne is a grassroots conservative activist from Central Virginia. He is currently furthering his education at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Virginia. In addition to writing for Bearing Drift he is also a columnist for the Christian Law Journal.
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20 Responses to "State of the Race in the 5th"
The only people that say that are the die-hard teapartiers.
Perhaps you weren’t watching the same show that I was.
Ah, screw the rest of the quoting I was planning to do. That one just put your believability into negative numbers and finished you off.
Congress is currently spending 42 % more than it takes in. *yikes* Even if you’re not a “fiscal conservative” (someone who spends less than they make), you have to admire someone willing to run on principles instead of promises.
Sound Money.
http://mcpaddenforcongress.com/
Make sure you’re sitting down:
http://usdebtclock.org
I must concur with SouthsideCentral; Jim McKelvey recently addressed my local unit committee and he was unimpressive. His plan to enact his agenda (a complex and controversial one at that) in no more than four years reeked of naivete as did his assurance that he could accomplish this by disregarding the House of Representatives’ respect for seniority. Mr. McKelvey may have a lot to offer our party, but right now he appears to be playing out of his league.
Furthermore, it is important to note that defeating Rep. Perriello-as we should all desire-is going to require more than standing up and saying “I’m a conservative, he’s a liberal.” From my perspective, that tired argument partly explains Virgil Goode’s unfortunate defeat. Our candidate must be one who can explain why the Obama-Pelosi-Perriello agenda is wrong for the United States and especially for central Virginia and how a conservative agenda can ameliorate the problems facing our nation. That’s how Bob McDonnell won last November and that, too, is how we will win the 5th this November.
i’m in Lunenburg, home of rednecks & bubbas. when I ask voters to sign a petition (for Robert Hurt), their 1st question: “is he a Republican?”
our people might wear overalls & drive log trucks, but they know that Pelosi/Reid/Obama & all associated with them–looking at you, Perriello–are ruining our country.
while I am a tea partier myself, I think running a strong Republican is the winning strategy to beat Perriello.
Southside,
We already know that your opinion on all of this is skewed. Your blog indicates that you are turned off towards the TEA Party movement. However, most polls show that independents agree with the TEA Parties, even if they are not in one.
Jason,
Virgil Goode lost because Perriello was able to paint him as a Washington politician. And yes, Perriello will use his Catholic charity background to outmanuever a Republican on the social issues- anyone remember “Eden’s Curve,” the gay film which Goode supposedly earmarked. Perriello should not be underestimated, especially when he has several reporters in his pocket. I agree that our nominee must be able to articulate local issues, but a position will require some principles, and not allowing Perriello to designate our nominee as a flip-flopper.
Steven,
Polls at the national level show that independents have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they agree. Additionally, while the national level may show that, there has been little sign of that sentiment in the Commonwealth. The 11th, 9th, 2nd have all shown little impact from the Tea Party movement. The 5th, while currently catering to the Tea Partiers, will wind up after the primary and even before that, appealing to the center and independents, not Tea Party specific issues.
Ok, D.J., don’t appeal to Tea Party issues at all and see how well you do. Agree with Obama and tell us how the deficit and debt doesn’t matter. Agree with Obama and argue for forced universal healthcare with prison terms for those refusing coverage. Agree with Obama that Cap & Trade will not ruin our econmomy and ruin business. Agree with Obama that Tax/Spend and social engineering are good policy. Tea Party specific issues!!
Those D.J., are Tea Party issues. You go ahead with your thoughts that addressing “Tea Party specific issues” are not a necessity for victory. You’ll find out quickly that there are large numbers of Republicans in the Tea Party movement, and they will ask why you are a Republican if you agree with Obama on all those “Tea Party specific issues”. When you label and bash Tea Partiers, you’re not just looking badly to Libertarians like me. There are large numbers of Independents, Republicans, and yes, fiscally conservative Democrats(yes, I contend there are some).
Hey, if you are a “Big Government” Republican, fine. Don’t try to pretend that these “Tea Party specific issues” are not Republican issues as well, just because you don’t share them personally.
Let’s face it D.J., if government wasn’t doing something horribly wrong, there would BE NO TEA PARTY! There would be no “Tea Party specific issues” for you to belittle. There wouldn’t be all these previously politically inactive people suddenly getting stirred up and marching on D.C.
The GOP had best address this movement and return to fiscal conservatism, or you guys will Whig out. Do your job, or someone else will come and do it for you. What you hope to gain by alienating a good deal of your own party by insulting the Tea Party movement is beyond me.
BTW, this morning the Tidewater Libertarian Party hosted a forum made up of Libertarians, Constituition Party members, GOOOH, multiple taxpayer alliances,HR 9-12,and HAMPTON ROADS TEA PARTY. I would like to think the following REPUBLICAN candidates that felt it worth their time to attend:
Ed Maulbeck
Kenny Golden
Ben Loyola
Scott Taylor
Not affecting the 2nd district, huh?
A GOP candidate for the 3rd district was also there. (Coby something, sorry for forgetting the name).
A guy representing Randy Forbes, also a Republican, took time to address the group.
Chuck Smith, another guy that says he’s Republican bothered to show up.
Now, D.J., Maybe YOU don’t think the Tea Party registers, but obviously a lot of people from your own party disagrees with you.
Insult and patronize the Tea Party at your own political peril.
D.J.,
To echo some of what Britt said, the TEA Parties are having a big impact on several of the congressional races here in the Commonwealth.
11th: In the 11th, we see Keith Fimian running on an outsider TEA Party-esque platform. He seems to be looking to tap into a formerly untapped voting bloc. This is actually similar to what Cuccinelli did in his run for state senate up there.
2nd: Britt’s comment above kind of sums that up. Although you do live closer to the 2nd than I do.
9th: Longtime congressman Boucher could be on his way out. Need I say more?
5th: Robert Hurt skipped the C-ville TEA Party debate, from what I understand he will be attending the Lynchburg one. All of the candidates understand that the TEA Parties are a potent force, yes even in the general.
General elections are decided by motivated voters. TEA Partiers are very motivated and much more numerous than the GOP establishment would like to acknowledge. While polling also shows a generic TEA Party candidate would defeat both the Democrat and the Republican in a national election. These mysterious “centrists” that the TEA Parties are supposed to be driving off do not exist in the same numbers that they are purported to exist in. Some have sloppily equated all independents as “moderates” doing such a thing is political malpractice. Many moderates are busy trying to change the two parties from the inside (i.e. blue dog Democrats and moderate Republicans). Many of the independents in this country are center right in their beliefs, fiscally and socially. The average TEA Party goer is not necessarily the kind of person who shows up at GOP committee meetings. They are regular Americans who are mostly independent and center right in their thinking. They also were not formerly involved, making them a formerly untapped voting bloc that may or may not be accessed in the general.
Hurt has the proven ability to raise money,build an organization,has 35% of the 5th in his legislative district, has 1000 Facebook fans, and a pile of conservative legislators from all over Virginia who will tell anyone that Hurt is a conservative. For example.
From Jeff Frederick
My friends in the 5th might disagree,but Hurt is a conservative,despite his 04 vote.Plus,he always stood by me,which should cnt 4 something.
11:02 AM Jan 17th from web
McKelvey is a time bomb waiting to explode. Only one donor other than himself,has no real base and just hired a campaign manager. Think Paul Jost. Can he throw away as much money on as many consultants as Jost did ? He already has paid a lot for a little.
Morton’s campaign is in disarray and has never been organized. Three different campaign managers and in debt. Very few donors even though she has been trying for six months. Hard to change path now.
McPadden lost his first campaign team and now has very inexperienced but nice person. Appeals to libertarian TEA party folks but little more with his withdraw from the world foreign policy and gold backed money schemes. No money and no money on the way.
Verga’s web site has not been updated in almost two months. Campaign is same way. Consultant is DC based and Verga spends great amounts of time there. Still tryng to find campaign manager and has been turned down by several. Some TEA party support but not a lot. Dead in the water. Think smaller Jost.
Ferrin is a nice guy with good ideas but no money,no team, little chance.
Boyd has good and expensive consultant, great local team, no manager and less money than he needed to go forward. Many surprised at low dollar totals. He is a smart man and will take a hard look before doing a Verga or McKelvey.
Look for Hurt to get stronger not weaker. Going to TEA event in Lynchburg. Best person to person campaigner and has supported TEA legislation this year.
I just found this at McPadden for Congress website at http://mcpaddenforcongress.com/issues/
Life
Life begins at conception. I believe that abortion is the taking of an innocent human life. The first and most important duty of any government is to protect the lives of its citizens, born, unborn, elderly and infirmed.
When our country was founded, our forefathers set up a structure of government with the Constitution that allowed the possibility for honest men of good will to sit down together in an atmosphere of love and respect, and come to a reasonable agreement on the best way to solve any problem. I still believe this. It was never intended in the United States for nine people in black robes to dictate the law of the land.
It is reprehensible to me that our government aides and abets the taking of human life through tax payer funding of organizations that facilitate or advocate abortion. I will vote for all legislation that cuts off tax payer funding of these organizations.
I will support a “Life Begins at Conception Act” to define from a federal point of view when human life begins. I will vote for legislation that prevents federal courts from hearing any case like Roe v. Wade. This would allow States to make abortion illegal and not have the Federal Government interfere with those laws.
As your Congressman I will be a vocal advocate for Life. I will always vote for legislation that moves us closer to ending abortion in this country and protects human life. I will work tirelessly to pass legislation to protect the lives of the unborn, elderly and infirmed.
This statement on Life seems very solid to me. I like Mike.
May God Bless Michael McPadden,
Tip
Britt, you mentioned the other 2nd District candidates who attended the Tidewater Libertarian Party forum this morning, but not Scott Rigell… oversight on your part by not recognizing Scott? I wasn’t there so I am curious.
Mrs. Canines,
Thank You for bringing this to my attention.
This is encouraging.
Tim, I wouldn’t expect every candidate would be able to attend. If they had pressing matters, I wouldn’t hold it against them.
If Scott Rigell had been there, he would have been given opportunity to speak. Each of the above candidates were all given time to address the forum. I was running the video camera, I don’t think I could have missed Scott R.
Bert wasn’t there either unfortunately. Again, I don’t hold it against the other candidates that could not attend. I will say that Kenny’s presence was a positive for him in that his presence may have softened some of the friction with VBTA/TLP members. It is my understanding that some resentment stemmed out of Kenny’s reprisals over VBTA not supporting Tax and Spend Republicans in recent elections. Mind you, VBTA is non-partisan and concerns itself with fiscal performance and not party name.
I would also like to mention that Republican council member Bill DeSteph was there and addressed the forum. Bill is definitely a great guy and my favorite council member. I regret that I previously left him out in that list.
I’m sure there will be future opportunities for Rigell and others, should they wish to speak with any of those groups. It is still a good deal of time between now and the primary and then the general election.
Every time I read a post by Bill Hays, I feel like donating to Robert Hurt, or any one but Verga.
I like Verga, but he HAS to do something about Bill.
It’s not that Verga wasn’t born in the 5th, it’s that he hasn’t lived here long enough to know the district. He’s lived in the 5th less than 5 years.
The comment by Kelley in Virginia sums up so much of what’s important in the vast majority of the 5th District. People here and all over America KNOW we have to get rid of people like Perriello in order to weaken and eventually eliminate Obama and Pelosi as policy makers. How do we do that? We must coalesce our energy behind the only person in the pack who has a powerful and demonstrated ability to win votes and be sure he wins the Republican nomination.
The idea of throwing Robert Hurt out over a bad vote six years ago is perfectly ridiculous. We must get behind him. It is going to be very, very hard to beat Perriello with his frightening coalition of donors from the unions and from the most liberal elements in the country (George Soros and Charlie Rangel for starters).
I’ve read that Hurt has appeared at Tea Party rallies and been warmly received–despite the awful things a few people say about him on the blogs. But if Hurt is gong to emerge as the winner we need, it’s up to him to make an even greater effort to reach out and win the confidence of the men and women who are playing such a tremendous role in re-igniting the American spirit.
Flat Earth Frank:
Amen!!! I think Hurt is doing what he needs to do. He is very much liked and appreciated by Tea Pary People except for a few like the BITTER BOYER BROTHERS in Lynchburg, who also hates Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling. They were supported and elected by the majority of Tea Party participates in the state of Virginia. I’m betting Robert Hurt will also be elected as the 5th district Rep by these same people
I agree, Donna, but we all need to impress on Senator Hurt that we are watching him like hawks on a rabbit and are expecting him to keep his word regarding the No-Tax Pledge he signed in Washington with Grover Norquist. My view from a distance is that he is an honest guy who made a mistake. But going forward, we can’t let him forget it!
If we need to Remind Robert Hurt to be Conservative then he is not Conservative
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