That’s one big darn IF
By Ward Smythe | Saturday, January 23rd, 2010 | PoliticsMichael Barone in The Washington Examiner: If Republicans run as strongly as Brown, only 103 House Dems are safe.
Let’s extrapolate those numbers to the nation as a whole and assume that a district that voted 64% or more for Obama is safe for Democrats even under the most dire of circumstances. How many such districts are there? Answer, according to this source: 103. The other 332 districts voted 63% or less for Obama. Interestingly, there are more 64%+ Obama districts in the West (36) than in the East (27) and more in the South (21) than in the Midwest (19).
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Ward Smythe is a pseudonymous aspiring freelance writer from Central Virginia. Until late 2007 Ward blogged at the now defunct "Ward View" and was active in Virginia and national politics. Ward's signature style of snarkery gained him a unique following that he hopes to regain here at Bearing Drift. Ward uses humor, satire and sometimes photoshop to make his point. Ward is proud to be an equal opportunity offender.
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2 Responses to "That’s one big darn IF"
Yeah, Ward, but it’s fun to IMAGINE a veto-proof GOP majority!
If for no other reason that to imagine the looks on Rachel Maddow’s and Keith Olbermann’s faces!
That is a pretty big if. If only districts where Obama got 64% are safe Dem districts then wouldn’t only districts where McCaine got 64% be safe GOP district? How many of those are there? Extrapolating for one election is sort of silly, no matter which side you’re extrapolationg for. It’s sort of like how in 1994 (and probably 2004) there were stories about the “death of the Democratic party” and how, after 2008, we read stories about “have Republicans lost the ability to compete as a national party.” Change is the one constant in American politics. 2009 was different from 2008 and 2010 may be different again.
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