Goode in the 5th? BELIEVE IT.
Time for a bit of brutal honesty in the 5th District GOP nomination. State Senator Robert Hurt is going to beat the pack of conservatives arrayed against him like rented mules. None of the current pack of conservatives has either the money, the organization, or the clout to bump off a state senator — much less a $3mil D.C. funded moderate Democrat like Rep. Tom Perriello.
Worse still, Perriello is going to beat Hurt. He will redefine Hurt’s concepts of pain, loss, debt, God, and politics.
Perriello is no pushover, and Republicans are stupid beyond human belief to believe VA-05 is ripe for the taking. It’s not. Frankly, if any one of these GOP challengers go up against Perriello, it’s going to look a lot like this:
Extra crispy, folks.
So this leads the sane and reasonable observer in VA-05 (and elsewhere in the Commonwealth) to ask the question: What the hell are 5th District Republicans thinking? Better still, it’s important to realize this… they’re not thinking. The 5th District GOP is one of the most poorly run in the entire RPV, and much of this isn’t current district chairman Tucker Watkins’ fault. Beset by infighting, bickering between social conservatives, and a deep factional rift between unit chairs and activists all adds up to an amazingly weak and discordant grassroots structure. Toss in a Tea Party or three five thirty-five and you can easily understand why so many people are tossing their hats in the ring.
Who would possibly want this 5th District paradise? Let’s size up the potential brides to be:
* State Senator Robert Hurt: Bottom line is this — Hurt cannot beat Perriello. His votes for HB 3202 in 2007, the massive 2004 Chichester tax hike, and his support for benefits for same-sex partners are decidedly to the left of the incumbent. Read that again… even Perriello, a former executive director of Catholics in Alliance for the Common Good, doesn’t go so far either in his positions on fiscal policy or social liberalism. Attempts to paint himself as something he’s not will simply fail. Conservatives don’t trust Hurt, liberty-minded voters don’t like Hurt, Tea Party activists see Hurt as the establishment, and VA-05 activists are vehemently opposed to Hurt. Simply raising the GOP banner and saying “vote Bad over Worse” simply doesn’t fly anymore.
* Real Estate Investor Lawrence Verga: $200K in the bank isn’t bad, but when most of that is your own money it doesn’t scream confidence. Former Albemarle GOP Chairman Keith Drake’s departure from the campaign will hurt Verga more than he realizes. Worse still, rumors of Verga’s health are already widespread, and the fact that Verga may very well become indisposed for 4-6 weeks recovering his health will prove difficult to overcome in a primary, and absolute disaster against Perriello. Verga’s uncanny ability to anger other conservative candidates by claiming early separation from the pack was heard by a chorus of “not so fast” from the others. In fact, despite Verga’s early shot at Ken Boyd’s bogus poll, Verga has yet to produce one poll showing a decided advantage over the others, despite having shelled out $5,000 to appear on the Laura Ingraham show and another $5,000 to have “Joe the Plumber” appear at a rally.
* Supervisor Ken Boyd: Early name ID helps in Albemarle, but Boyd has yet to show any ability to raise serious money. After Verga utterly destroyed the validity of his impromptu poll, Boyd’s credibility is now in the tank. Next case…
* Former School Board Member Feda Morton: Early comparisons to former Rep. Jo Ann Davis have utterly dissipated. Morton is now on her fourth campaign manager, burned through several mid-level staffers, and has now settled on Aaron Evans (son of Jeff Evans who horribly lost his 2007 bid for State Senate) and PR consultant KellyAnne “Send Obama to the Back of the Bus” Conway. Early endorsements seemed to propel her to a possible contender status, but lackluster fundraising, a total lack of message, and a bitter taste from former staff put Morton in dead last place.
* Businessman Ron Ferrin: Who?
* Real Estate Developer Jim McKelvey: Again… who?
* Former Navy Officer Mike “Scrooge McDuck” McPadden: After the gold standard speech at Blogs United and Kenton Ngo’s brilliant satire, McPadden remains true to form as the Paulistinian (read: Ron Paul) candidate in the 5th District. He also happens to be the most gracious out of the contenders and the most genuine, bringing his ideas to the table, putting them forward, and win-lose-draw is comfortable with the outcome. You gotta appreciate honesty.
So that’s it.
Out of seven potential candidates, there isn’t a single serious contender in the race. Even after the primary-conservative debacle at 5th District, most of the not-ready-for-prime-time conservatives whined about the outcome. Professional candidates just don’t do that sort of thing…
ENTER. VIRGIL. GOODE.
Now hear me out on this, because most folks in NOVA or elsewhere outside the 5th are rolling their eyes going “give me an effing break, Agricola — there’s no way Goode deserves a second shot at Perriello.”
Well yes, he does. And if you buy the liberal spin machine BS on Goode, then shame on you and go packing to NOVAstan. Commie.
However, if you are open to reasonable discourse and entertain the idea that (1) you might be wrong and (2) sound argument can persuade you otherwise, then I encourage you to check out the new 2010 model Virgil Goode Cutlass Sedan XL version with rich Corinthian leather seats, power steering, and oh… oh so much more.
Let’s understand who Virgil Goode replaced way back in 1996 — L. F. Payne, warmly known as “Left Field” Payne amongst both Democrats and Republicans. Goode quickly established himself as one of the last of a dying breed, the “conservative Democrat” that was close to farmers but never bought into the 1960′s counter-culturalism that infected and ultimately corrupted the Democratic Party by the 1980s. By 2002 Goode had formally made the break from his Democratic roots and became a Republican, a move for which 5th District Democrats never quite forgave him.
Time and time again Goode was challenged, and time and time again Goode fended off Democratic challengers with fierce margins. Safe margins. Margins so safe, future gubernatorial campaign managers could shelter themselves into and never feel the heat of a GOP-busting 2008 election cycle. After all, who the hell was Tom Perriello? Some doctor’s spoiled kid from Albemarle who toured Africa on the government dime and called it “public service” — a left wing lawyer, a MoveOn.org funded tool of George Soros, and from the worst part of the 5th to hail from? Puh-leaze.
Well, the unthinkable happened. Poorly run, ultimately disserved by a 5th District GOP committee that never had to dig deep to win, beset by about $3mil in Democratic money and a national climate that wanted a change, the formerly Democratic 5th District discovered that Perriello wasn’t the young leftist everyone thought he was. Perriello was a moderate, socially conscious Catholic professional who struck home with a series of ads and an online presence that drove people to the polls. In the end, the best run campaign in Virginia took on the worst run campaign in Virginia, and Goode lost to Perriello by a handful of votes.
That’s the bad news. Now it’s 2010. Not only has the climate changed, the issues have changed — and they’re all Virgil Goode’s issues.
Climate change. National debt. The solvency of America. Stimulus money. The expansion of the federal government beyond Constitutional authority. Softness on global Islamic terror.
Are these not Virgil Goode’s issues?
Now I have no idea whether or not anything mentioned in the Washington Post is true, and frankly that’s good for everyone’s sanity. Still, let’s review this tantalizing possibility:
Although Goode said he knows and likes all the candidates and described Hurt as “a nice fellow,” he said he, too, was chagrined at Republican leaders’ involvement in the race. He even gently criticized a longtime ally of his, Tucker Watkins, chairman of the Fifth District Republican Committee, for what he views as Watkins’ tacit support of Hurt.
“The fifth district chairman should be neutral and not be for one candidate or another,” Goode said. “He’s not neutral. He’s working very hard. Being neutral is also not being against other candidates.”
“So what?” screams the skeptic. To which I say, “DOOOOOOODE! Whaddya mean so what?!?!”
Need more ammo? Check this out, from the same unreliable source:
Mark Lloyd, who leads the Lynchburg Tea Party organization, said he has spoken to Goode about getting into the Republican primary, a scenario that Lloyd described as “one option” to ensure the nomination of a sufficiently conservative candidate. The first option, however, will be to try to persuade the six other Republicans vying against Hurt for the nomination to choose the strongest amongst them and rally behind him or her. If they can’t do that by Feb. 9, the pressure on Goode will intensify, Lloyd and others said.
“Virgil Goode is not the goal,” Lloyd said. “The goal is a good, solid conservative candidate that everybody can get behind and take out Perriello. That is the goal.”
Nonetheless, the possibility of Goode candidacy traveled quickly through Virginia political circles today and intensified the perception that the 5th District is fast becoming another national battleground over the direction of the Republican Party. Conservatives say Hurt’s vote for a billion-dollar tax increase in 2004 effectively disqualifies him as a credible conservative candidate; they also say they resent state and national Republican intervention on behalf of Hurt. Earlier this week, House Minority Whip Eric I. Cantor (R-Va.) disclosed that his leadership PAC and congressional committee had donated $7,000 to Hurt’s campaign.
Now let me propose this to you.
Tea Party activists are approaching you, the former U.S. Congressman for the 5th District. The same NRCC that hung you out to dry is not only supporting an heir, is not only seeing what should be a fair process lean towards State Senator Hurt, and is now seeing House Minority Whip Eric Cantor lean into your (former) district. Conservatives are divided, split, factional, and desperately looking for some solution after having been robbed of a convention.
You have six figures in a campaign warchest, and know that your entry will ultimately find yourself in the position of garnering the support of six very gracious and happy conservative candidates, but an honest to God up and down establishment vs. outsider fistfight.
Who’s game for that in this environment when everyone and their brother is claiming to be anti-establishment?
Virginia Virtucon’s Tim Watson has a pretty low IQ dim understanding to what’s at stake here. I’m sure he’s very supportive of equal benefits to same sex couples, as his constituency would be. Nevertheless, outsiders to the 5th District simply don’t understand how well liked Virgil Goode is. As a product of the district and a longtime representative hailing from both parties, Goode is about as independent and anti-establishment as they come.
Moreover, doubters are under illusions as to how difficult Perriello will be to dislodge. Perriello comes well funded. Albemarle Democrats and 5th District Dems will be loathe to let go of such a hard-fought and hard won seat. MoveOn.org and others will bring the same fire and fight they did in 2008. Most of all, Perriello is a smart, skilled campaigner who knows how to fight in the trenches, even if he doesn’t know his district all that well. Perriello is getting to know it though… and none of the current GOP challengers have even begun to match the grueling town hall schedule Perriello has laid out for himself as a congressman. None of them.
Virgil Goode is, quite frankly, tailor made to beat Tom Perriello in 2010′s political environment. Goode can raise the money to defeat Perriello. Goode will have the right environment to beat Perriello. Goode will have the rabid support of the grassroots, not just the conservatives but moderates and Tea Party activists who are tired of the labels and intrusion of party politics.
Time for a bit of brutal honesty in the 5th District GOP nomination.
Virgil Goode should run for Congress again. Get the right campaign staff, throw out the net, and beat Perriello now — before he entrenches himself after the 2010 Census. We could do far, far worse not to give him his shot.
Category: Campaigns and Elections
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Agricola,
I see what you are saying, however, I have not given up on some of these other candidates.
For instance, Feda Morton is not in dead last. Her new strategist KellyAnne Conway is also working for Mike Pence, so although she made an unfortunate comment in the past, she is not a fringe figure. The fact that she has hired a nationally known strategist shows that her fundraising has ticked up some.
There are other promising candidates as well. The key will be whether or not they begin to voluntarily endorse a single candidate. If they do that, conservative candidate will emerge with some momentum going into June.
If they do not do that, then Virgil may take another look at running himself. Or will Virgil endorse someone and narrow the field himself?
I just received an email Friday that Franklin County Republican Chairman and attorney Bill Stanley, who ran for Chairman of RPV last May, announced to the 5th District Committee members that he will be a candidate for the 5th District Chairman for 2010. As a member of his committee, I can tell you that, over the past two years, he has transformed the Frankin County group into a well-oiled machine that has raised a significant amount of money not only for the unit, but also for the local and state-wide candidates in the county. His organizational skills are excellent, our local activists are motivated, and the results of the Franklin committee’s hard work has paid off at our local ballot box. He tripled membership, he puts on Republican events that are top-drawer, and he has returned conservative Virginia politics to a previously democrat-dominated county. I should know, my family is full of dixiecrats, and they continuosly grumble (with respect) about his efforts in Franklin. Heck, I think he has event converted my uncle, a life-long democat, into being a conservative Republican! Simply put, if anyone can straighten this out in the 5th District, I know Bill Stanley can. He is a true conservative with a pragmatic and reasonable approach.
At the Mecklenburg GOP forum last Tuesday, Mrs. Morton stated adamantly that she was running for congress because Virgil Goode called her in July and asked her to run. Further, she stated that she shared with him that she planned to run for 5th District chair, and that he persuaded her to run for congress in the alternative. Therefore, I am confused. If the statements made in Mecklenburg are true, then wouldn’t his inherent endorsement of Mrs. Morton preclude the necessity for his entrance into the race?
The comments that I reference can be seen in the link below starting around 3:30
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEv4he9h7GI
Sorry, I still prefer McPadden over all of the others, but that’s more of an ideological thing.
I think Goode would be D.O.A. unless he can really turn ALL the focus on Perriello’s basic lack of any votes or accomplishments that the majority of the 5th district voters would agree with. However, if Goode gets into the race, Perriello will get good money from the DNC…Tim Kaine will see to that.
Red Blanket –
That’s the best news I’ve heard all day… well, except the fact that Goode is considering saving America.
Phil –
Perriello is getting money no matter what. Goode is just about the only candidate that can unite the conservatives. And win.
Confused –
Join the rest of us.
Signed,
Also Confused.
Steven –
It doesn’t appear from Virgil’s comments in the press that he *has* endorsed. In fact, if Confused is right, there’s someone out there announcing that Virgil endorsed a specific candidate… and that doesn’t appear to be the case.
If he has endorsed, then that totally spins this entire assessment on it’s head. If Goode has *not* endorsed, then one campaign in particular is OVER.
Agricola,
She did not say he endorsed her, she said that he persuaded her to run.
However, if Virgil were to come out tomorrow and endorse a particular candidate, that candidate would likely be the one everybody united behind. He seems to approve of Morton and if he endorses her, then she could become the de facto candidate.
what an obnoxious post. the pictures, the font changes and the “i’m trying to be cool by not taking myself too seriously while making a serious argument” attitude is not needed and to be honest, i stopped reading after one paragraph
I have heard rumors that Tucker Watkins wont run against Bill Stanley for chairman, and i dont see another candidate emerging. Bill is great.
If Virgil runs i could see a number of the other candidates dropping out. For instance, Mckelvy, who is from Franklin County, would have his voting base totally destroyed by Virgil’s entrance.
Virgil lost by 727 votes (if i recall correctly). He has had some time off to be with his family and the political environment has changed greatly in 2 years.
One of the main reasons Virgil lost was Tucker Watkins campaign.
I think if he ran he would not make the same mistakes his former campaign did.
As far as the contention that Hurt cannot beat Perriello. I would beg to differ, his votes hurt him but he is still a conservative and would garner loads of support from the southern part of the district. Does he need more polish? Yes. But he is probably the only one that can beat TP out of the group we currently have.
Back when I was a Republican, Virgil Goode was a Democrat. I liked the way he always seemed to be straight-forward and how he would speak-up about some controversial issues.
When I got sick of the Bush Republicans torturing our citizens and spying on us without so much as a warrant, I decided to join the Democrats.
I still like Virgil Goode and would support him for Congress, even though we are again in opposite parties.
Without the Obama coat-tails, Perriello is going to lose to Virgil Goode. If the Republicans keep up this in-fighting, and pick a lesser candidate, then all they will get, is Hurt.
Yeah, we’re the party of term limits, but we can only find the same person over and over to run for Congress.
If all we do in 2010 is run a “See I told ya so” tour of former elected officials taking one more bite of the apple, we’re doomed in 2012. Politics isn’t a WayBack machine. Move forward, guys!
I think Hurt can beat Perriello. oh yeah, I think it will be hard, expensive, & nothing, absolutely nothing, can go wrong for Hurt if he expects to win.
Perriello’s grueling townhall schedule? oh c’mon–I was there. he had no support. in fact, so many of the the attendees had never once met their Congressman & came away from these events disgusted with Perriello specifically & Congress as a whole.
Hurt’s tax vote was actually pretty prophetic. If he hadn’t raised taxes when he did, perhaps Virginia would be in really, really bad shape now. Instead of waffling on WHY he voted the way he did on Warner’s (yuk) tax bill, he should just suck it up & say “i did it because it had to be done”.
Instead of pointing out what is wrong in the 5th, why don’t all the naysayers get together to beat Perriello. that should be our ONLY goal at this point.
You mentioned Morton losing several people from her campaign but failed to mention that former State Senator Ed Robb took back his endorsement of McPadden after being on his campaign for several months. This was obviously a serious blow to the campaign and raised some questions as to why a big supporter would do a 180 like this.
I know it break’s Kelly’s heart,(I haven’t seen such devotion to a candidate since the Obamasiah came into the spotlight)you are dead right about Hurt he will not stand a chance against Perriell because of his voting record.
1st: wouldn’t the average person assume that before any of those running in the 5th announced, they would have called Cong Goode & asked “are you running, because i don’t want to step on your toes?” that is just polite. some of the candidates are polite. Goode gave them his “no” answer at that time.
bill, the tax vote was necessary to run the current state services. Sen Hurt needs to explain this once & for all.
and yes, I am a big Hurt supporter because I believe he can beat Perriello. but at the rate the Republicans are going in the 5th district at this time, we will beat no one but ourselves. Perriello is laughing at our in-fighting.
Agricola,
Is your aim to get a Republican victory, or to get a better Government? We’ve seen Goode in action.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY-taIurlOs&feature=player_embedded
That’s unaltered too.
If we truly want to make the Government BETTER as opposed to just sending members of the different party, we need to elect competent, open-minded, and independent leaders. People like Tom Periello or Robert Hurt.
to say that Robert Hurt is an incompetent legislator (or leader), you are insulting the people of his state SEnate district & his House of Delegates district that have elected & re-elected him many times, by a large margin.
its not like Robert Hurt didn’t win those elections hands down.
Whoever wrote this article should check his facts before he makes statements such as this one made about Laurence Verga: “despite having shelled out $5,000 to appear on the Laura Ingraham show” a complete and utter falsehood. I have lost some respect for this blog after reading that.
[...] Drift has an interesting internal debate going. Agricola makes an excellent pitch for resurrecting the political corpse of former VA-5 Rep. Virgil Goode. Brian Kirwin, who [...]
Bill –
So is Verga willing to go on the record saying otherwise? Because that’s more than a rumor at this point. Wasn’t aware of the McPadden un-endorsement.,. that’s gotta hurt.
Bill – the opinion expressed by each contributor is their own opinion, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of all contributors on the blog. Thanks.
You make quite a lot of good points in favor of Goode. Ever since his defeat in 2008, I’ve been hoping for a return of Virgil Goode to the 5th. With the climate and issues being what they are, I could see him stepping back into the ring and (assuming he has a well-run campaign and decent support from the RPV) reclaiming this district.
[...] Pro-Goode article [...]
Like I said, it was time for some brutal honesty in the 5th District race. If it shakes down that Goode gets in or one of the conservatives steps up their game, I’m interested. If not, well, don’t say I didn’t warn you.
“bill, the tax vote was necessary to run the current state services. Sen Hurt needs to explain this once & for all.” – Kelley in Virginia
WRONG!!!
Virginia revenue streams were already trending surprisingly upward set to balance the budget as early as April/May BEFORE the tax was passed. The budget came to a surplus in midsummer BEFORE Warner’s tax increase even took effect in the Fall. The idea that Warner’s tax was necessary is total BS!
Hurt could beat Perriello. Boyd could beat Perriello. Morton could beat Perriello.
That’s it.
Perriello is crafty as hell, and won’t be easy to knock off. There are only 3 serious candidates in this race… the rest are just wasting time and money.
Oh, but a note for Goode: Stay the fuch out of the race. No one wants you.
I loved your article – it was some great information. I think you and your readers might be interested in another article I found, about Dry Eyes.
http://Www.whatistheeye.wordpress.com
Agricola, I think you have been daydreaming with your Virgil Goode centerfold. I think your reasoning comes straight from the Democratic playbook in MA, as laid out a few weeks before the election. I think you are in denial about the current state of the electorate.
First, Virgil is a very good man who did an excellent job representing this district for many years. Had he wanted to run, he could have had the Republican nomination on a silver platter, and he would have had no trouble defeating Periello, who won by only a few hundred votes on the strength of Obama’s coattails and dissatisfaction with Bush and the Republicans. Since then, buyer’s remorse has set in big time. In fact, that would be a mild term for it. The money that Periello has will not buy the People’s seat. The money that some of the other candidates are lacking is not important at this stage. It will not be important until after the primary, and then the money will be there.
You are correct that if Goode chooses to run, he will probably win. However, he has said that he does not want to run. We do not need a reluctant candidate. We need a candidate with the determination to go to Washington to turn this disaster around. There will be a great number of new, Tea Party type conservatives elected this year. We need a candidate from the 5th district in that mold. But we also need Virgil Goode. We need him to work with a conservative reform candidate throughout the campaign and in Washington. I think Virgil Goode has the experience, knowledge and character to be a excellent mentor and elder statesman to a new 5th District congressman.
In my opinion, McPadden is the strongest candidate. Yes, he lacks money, but he has a good organization and he has grass roots appeal.
I like Virgil Goode. I voted for him before and I’d like to vote for him again. However, this district needs new blood. Brian makes a great point. We are the party of term limits. We’re electing an ideology and a way of thinking, not a hero.
We need to examine these candidates and see which one of them embodies the conservative principles that made Mr. Goode popular. I think that candidate is Mike McPadden. He has solid conservative principles that will resonate with voters in our district.
Virgil Goode is the only person that could bring everyone back together. This is the perfect time for him to run, im afraid if he doesn’t Tom Perriello will win. Wonder how many candidates would stay in the race if Virgil decides to run ? My guess maybe one Hurt which Virgil would easily beat.On another note we need Bill Stanley to be the chairman of the 5th if he could do for the entire 5th what he has done for his county the Republican party would never lose a election.
Isn’t the concept of Term Limits that someone serves, comes home to live under the laws they created, then they are able to run again?
By living as a citizen for two years, I believe that the ‘Virgil Goode Clock’ would start over.
Some of us seem to forget that at the time Hurt voted for 1.4 Bil in new taxes, we had a 1 bil. budget surplus!
How the heck can you defend the tax raiser under such circumstances?
He has also only had token opposition in most of his previous elections, and the PPP poll showed his name recognition at the same level as almost all the other candidates………hmmm.
[...] great post by Agricola on this blog couldn’t be more wrong, as it calls for a return of Virgil Goode to the 5th [...]
Apparently I’ve been successful at making Virgil Goode look like the nut he is, as well as point out the hypocrisy in the tea-party folks in the 5th, so mission accomplished for me!
Timothy what you have accomplished is making yourself look like a nut thats all.