Now that the genie is out on Griffith, let me add some more detail
By JR Hoeft | Monday, January 11th, 2010 | PoliticsWaPo has the scoop on a closely guarded secret that Majority Leader Morgan Griffith is contemplating running for Congress. According to the Post:
Griffith said he’s a long way from a decision, and he would not step in if a “stronger candidate” emerges. But, he said: “It’s very tempting. Someone needs to run against Rick Boucher.”
What they don’t have is that it’s almost a lock – and that statement by Griffith is complete bull. What he’s really waiting on is whether the NRCC will put their money where their mouth is.
NRCC has rated Boucher as a top 40 pick-off. If Morgan is the nominee, will they fight for it?
Griffith was recruited by elected officials in the district to run, according to my source, and he reached out to other electeds who have said, “Go for it.”
Griffith is as good as the nominee in the 9th…and will have a clear shot to 2012 if he doesn’t win this go around – because defeating an incumbent is never easy.
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Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
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29 Responses to "Now that the genie is out on Griffith, let me add some more detail"
Wonderful news!
Will he get Jeff Frederick to run his “New Media” outreach?
Lee…give it a rest.
Good luck with that. Virginia loves Republicans, but more than that, it loves its long time incumbents. Boucher’s not going anywhere he doesn’t want to.
(FWIW, I’m a fan of Boucher because he is one of the very few sane voices on IP/DMCA issues. Otherwise, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of difference, policy-wise, between him and most VA GOP votes.)
MB – The Boucher you’re talking about would never have voted for cap and trade. As someone who grew up in the 9th, it’s clear to me that Boucher has forgotten who he represents. I hope Griffith runs to hold Boucher responsible for his hard move to the left.
To make the point a little more finely, Boucher voted with Pelosi almost 98% of the time in this Congress. Also endorsed Obama in primary who got about 30% in the 9th and has an approval rating there that has almost dropped to single digits. To me, that’s someone who is completely out of touch with the district.
I heard this one coming….it should prove very interesting. Boucher is definitely “low-hanging fruit” and I can see why he is high on the list. I wonder if Morgan does decide to run, who will line up to fight for his slot in the House of Delegates?
Sorry Jim H. I couldn’t resist it.
Morgan is a solid elected but I’m am curious as to how he’s mended fences after that whole fiasco in backing JFred. He upset alot of folks but if he has he’d be as strong as anyone.
Though I still think Tamara Neo would be a better fit.
Tamara Neo is not well thought of and has zero chance at Congress. After some of the things she’s done she has very little chance of getting re-elected. As for Frederick, if that was a problem, the electeds in the 9th wouldn’t be recruiting him. That’s just inside baseball anyway and will either be irrelevant or might actually help him in the 9th where Frederick remained popular.
well unless its a primary inside baseball counts for alot.
I would be curious to know his coalition of supporters. I’m sure Morgan wouldn’t mind getting out of the House of Delegates anyways not like he has any chance of being speaker. Between JFred and us gaining so many seats Speaker Howell has that job for as long as he wants it.
Seems your willing to disparage Tamara without stating facts? What things has she done that have given her so “Little” chance of being re-elected.
Ask Tamara why she tried to investigate/prosecute a 9th District Republican Delegate over in kind contributions that were 100% legal. That’s just the tip of the iceberg.
As for Griffith/JFred, it appears the nomination is his if he wants it so this isn’t an intraparty discussion anymore. This is about Obama, Pelosi, Reid and Boucher.
Wow and I thought I carried a grudge or two…
[...] can add Rick Boucher in the Fighting 9th to that list. The WashPo is reporting and Bearing Drift confirms that House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith is set to jump in the race against [...]
[...] Read more from JR Hoeft at Bearing Drift [...]
Oh my! A Commonwealth’s Attorney doing her job into investigating enquiries?! Heaven-forbid she does her job…Sounds like someone has a personal bone to pick.
Lee, I wonder if Chuck Smith’s chances were hurt by being one of the final daggers in JFred’s back.
Its actually a good play by Griffith. He has essentially no chance of becoming speaker in the next 8-10 years if ever and this seat could be built for him. If he wins he is in for life. As for the Frederick stuff, it might hurt him within the GA in his own caucus but would not even be an issue for federal office.
Jim,
If Boucher can’t be defeated this year, there’s really not going to be much point in trying again in 2012 when Democrats will be motivated to re-elect Obama. The political environment for Democrats this year is looking toxic, incumbents are dropping like flies, and Boucher has been front and center on a couple of issues that are VERY unpopular in the 9th.
This is definitely the year to retire Rick. It is going to be a battle, for certain, but they don’t call us the “Fightin’ 9th” for nothing. We will be equal to the task, we just need a General to rally behind. Del. Griffith would make a fine one.
Chris – 2012 might generally be a better year for Ds than 2010 but it won’t be in the 9th. Obama’s approval rating in the 9th is almost in the teens. The last thing Boucher wants is a competitive race with Obama at the top of the ticket. Honestly, Boucher would have been done in 2008 if the Rs would have fielded anyone. Obama is simply that toxic in the 9th. If Boucher faces a difficult election in 2010, the real question is whether he’ll even stick around to run in 2012 or whether he’ll retire at that point.
Morgan would present a credible challenge to Boucher and I think it is worth him getting in. However, I agree with my good friend Lee Talley that the whole Frederick thing created a gap and Morgan got on the wrong side of the track on that issue. In turn, he has a lot of fences to mend. However, if he were to get in, he would present a credible threat to Boucher and I think could take him out. Let’s not forget that before Virginia was a “red” state, the 9th was the extent of Republicans in Virginia.
Griffith should be about as good a candidate as anyone else. Boucher will be tough to beat. I’m surprised that the 9th stretches to Salem. I would have thought Griffith was in Goodlatte’s district.
Steve
Salem is in the 6th. Griffith lives literally right on the line. A good chunk of Griffith’s HOD district in the 9th (even more was in the 9th before the last redistricting). Also, depending on what happens with Perriello, Salem is very likely going to the 9th next year. With that said, the biggest obstacle for Griffith will clearly be the fact that he currently lives right across the line.
There is no district residency requirement for Congress but it’ll certainly be a factor and he’ll have to pursuade folks in the coalfields that he’s the man for the job. The fact that he’s being recruiting by elected officials down there should go along ways towards overcoming any fears. It’ll certainly be fun if he decides to run.
Grassroots leaders and activists (unit chairs, state central members and ect.) are not happy with this whisper campaign of Griffith’s, the “political arrogance” that he detested during the Jeff Frederick saga is apparently out the window.
dj – The problem with that theory is that electeds, unit chairs and state central members in the 9th are the ones who are recruiting Griffith. He is not driving this, they are. I have personally spoken with 3 Delegates, 5 unit chairs and 2 SCC members. I can’t speak for the rest but I have a hard time believing these folks are the outliers. Furthermore, it’s not like Griffith gets to say it’s his seat. If you’re not happy and you have someone else you want to support then tell him/her to piss or get off the pot. Since no one in the 9th seems willing to take on this challenge, conservatives there should be thrilled if Griffith agrees to jump in.
Norton,
Well lets say this Morgan running while not living in the district is no different than Marsden running from his apartment of convenience. Personally I respect Tamara for actually being one of the few Commonwealth Attorney’s in this state to even investigate a campaign finance violation and I like someone with guts and that lady has guts.
Neo for the Ninth! Tamara Neo for Congress today!
I live in the 9th and I know everyone one I talk to is upset but not at Griffith. We are upset that none of the Republicans in the 9th are willing to take on Boucher. Now we are looking to Griffith to come in and we are going to give him the support he needs to win.
I thought Virginia required that the candidate live in the actual district for a minimum of one year? That’s what it reads on their site. There are 3 unknowns running. One is a young independent,one is a Republican older entrepreneur and the other is a Tea Party Republican retired special forces officer.
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