Predictions open-thread 2010
By JR Hoeft | Monday, January 4th, 2010 | Catch-AllWhat happens with the congressional elections? Does Nye win – but for the Republican Party? Is Hurt the new congressman from the 5th? Did Fimian or Herrity pull off the upset? Is Scott Robinson or Krystal Ball the nominee for Democrats in the 1st?
What about nationally? Does the GOP take back the House? The Senate?
What happens in the General Assembly this year? Is the Triggerman rule passed? How successful is Governor Bob McDonnell in having his budget pass? Is there any headway with transportation?
Those are just some possible topics….but this is an open-thread where you run the show.
Have fun!
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About the author
Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
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17 Responses to "Predictions open-thread 2010"
It doens’t matter who the Dem nominee in the 1st is, a Dem can’t win the seat.
Given the budget realities and the fact that the state is at it’s debt ceiling and can’t borrow more money, it’s a tough budget session for McDonnell and the Republicans. They represent a constituency that absolutely opposes all taxes in all situations and they’ve promised not to raise them. But, as evidenced by the flack they gave Warner for cutting back DMV hours and Kaine for closing the Interstate rest stops, that contituency is also not interested in significant cuts in the budget, at least those that cause them the slightest incovenience. I’m not sure how McDonnell can make anybody happy in this situation. He’s going to have to make cuts that everyone hates.
Nothing happens on transportation because there’s no money.
The GOP does not take back the House nor does it take back the Senate. We do, however, make many gains. Linda McMahon beats Dodd. Sue Lowden beats Harry Reid. Mark Kirk beats Sexy Lexi. Mike Castle wins due to Biden not running. Pat Toomey narrowly wins. Jane Norton kicks Bennet to the curb. Gilbert Baker takes out Blance Lincoln. Governor John Hoeven becomes Senator Hoeven. Gain of 8. Portman holds Ohio. Paul holds Kentucky. Rubio holds Florida. Ovide Lamontagne holds New Hampshire. Blunt narrowly loses to Carnahan. Net gain of 7, leaving us at 47-53. We didn’t take back the body but we did create a stop in the super-majority. We make many gains in the House but still come up short.
In Virginia, Scott Taylor pulls an upset in the 2nd. Robert Hurt is the new Congressman in the 5th after a very close primary battle against Feda Morton. Scott Robinson wins the right to get destroyed by Rob Wittman. Terry Kilgore kicks Boucher to the curb. Pat Herrity beats the tar out of Connolly. The Triggerman rule does pass. McDonnell’s budget is overwhelmingly passed but no headway is made in transportation.
JB#-I think you’re right in the 2nd, but wrong in the 5th, 9th and 11th.
So in your opinion, what happens?
I’m a big fan of Scott Taylor’s and a personal friend. I’m not entirely sure if we will be able to overtake Rigell’s lead though. What makes you so sure?
Hahahaha…..Scott Taylor winning in the second is laughable.
While I agree with most of what JohnnyB3 has to say, Paul loses to Grayson and Lamontagne loses to Ayotte. If Lamontagne wins the primary, the GOP loses the seat.
So who wins in the 2nd David?
JB3-I wasn’t disagreeing with you about primaries but about the general. I think Dems hold the 5th, 9th, and 11th, but lose the 2nd. And, yes, I know that’s a distinct minority opinion on the 5th.
Bob gets his budget passed, another fight over transportation funding between localities breaks out and Bob will really have to step up to help hold down the fort. His transportation plan gave us hope during the campaign, I can’t wait to see what he follows through with.
Scott Robinson would be a more legitimate threat than Krystal Ball, but Wittman will have no problem with either.
If Taylor does not win the Primary then it’s Glenn Nye’s seat.
The 2nd goes to Rigell. Hurt takes the 5th. Depending on how much worse things can get, the GOP can take the 11th but by 1-3 pts.
The GOP doesn’t take the House or Senate back though it does up its #s. This is good. I don’t want it to. Let Pelosi continue to be the face of Congress. If we take it back if forces Obama to the center, exactly like Clinton. We need liberal Dems as the face of Congress going into 2012. If we do take back a house, Obama is re-elected. If we don’t….Obama is defeated.
I like what I am hearing about Mike McPadden:
Of all the issues our campaign is based on, the one that seems to draw the most confusion is Sound Money. While I understand why people are confused about the concept of Sound Money, it is sad that this is so.
The underlying basis of our entire campaign is the desire to return our nation and the American people back to a truly free and prosperous society. This society must be based on the Constitutional principle of limited government and the concept of maximum liberty consistent with order. In order for this to become a reality, we the people must agree that the Constitution is the best framework and model for how the Federal government must operate. If we can all agree to this, then one of the outcomes of returning our government to a government bound by the chains of the Constitution will be to follow the principles of sound money as laid out in that document.
So according to The Constitution of the United States, what are the principles of sound money? Let’s examine what the Constitution says about Congress’s ability to print or coin money:
Article 1, Section 8:
The Congress shall have Power . . . To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin . . . ; To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States . . . .
Remember that the Constitution is a charter given by the people to the Federal Government that specifically states what that federal government is allowed to do. This is what is meant by limited and enumerated powers. There is actually no reason to put restrictions on the actions of the Federal Government, because if it is not in the Constitution then it cannot be done at all. Still our founders did not trust those in elected office to not over step their bounds. (That is why they added the first ten amendments to the Constitution.) With that in mind; what can the government do regarding money?
1) Coin money: This means that the government has the power to manufacture coins of the realm and the power to fix the quantity of precious metal in those coins. The government may not legally manufacture paper money only gold and silver coins.
2) Regulate the value thereof, and of foreign Coin: Regulate means to make regular. For example: An ounce of gold will be equal to $25.
So what about the States? The Constitution says the following about the States with regard to money:
Article 1, Section 10:
No State shall . . . coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts….
As stated earlier, the Constitution was designed to enumerate the duties of the Federal Government, which in simpler language means to spell out exactly what the Federal Government was allowed to do. If it is not in the Constitution, then legally they just can’t do it. The States on the other hand were allowed to do whatever they wanted unless prohibited by the Constitution. As an example the First Amendment prohibits Congress from making a law respecting an establishment of religion, but the states were free to do so if they chose. Many of them did just that. In fact the Constitution prohibits very little to the States. Article 1, Section 10 though is very explicit.
Here is what the States are specifically forbidden to do:
1) The States may not coin money.
2) The States may not emit bills of credit. Bills of credit were in fact what paper money was called in 1787 when the Constitution was being written.
3) Only gold and silver coins can be used as legal tender.
The Founders were very particular about money, because they had just come out of a period of time where paper money was being used to devalue people’s fortunes and ruin the economy. It was the founder’s vision that the federal government would have no role in the money supply other than to coin money. Furthermore it was the founder’s intent that the Federal Government would be specifically forbidden the right to issue paper money by purposely leaving out the right to “emit bills of credit”.
Our founders were very focused on the nature of money and what exactly money is. The Constitution makes it clear that money was only gold or silver. The States were forbidden from forcing citizens to accept any method of payment other than gold or silver. If they chose private banks could issue certificates backed by gold or silver, but it was up to the people to decide whether or not to accept them for payment of debt.
Fiat currency, like the Federal Reserve Notes that we use today, is not money. It is just paper. It is backed by nothing more that the faith of the people that use it. It is not money. It is not sound. Throughout history all fiat currencies have eventually ended the exact same way, and all signs indicate that our fiat dollar will end this way also. Gold and silver coins are money. Because of their intrinsic value, it is money that is by its very nature sound. Gold and silver are sound money.
Why do gold and silver have value? Because we all agree that they do. That’s exactly the same for federal reserve notes. All of us — well, exluding a few wingnuts — agree that they have value and that we’ll exchange our goods, service and labor for them.
ALL money, no matter what’s it’s made from –metal, paper or moon rocks — is an abstraction. None of it has any “intrinsic” value above what we all agree it has.
Without our common agreement on the value of our money, we’d be left with the barter system.
Which is what we’d soon be reduced to if anyone took Ron Paul’s economic ideas seriously.
Most metals do have intrinsic value, Steve. Gold, silver, copper, cadmium, uranium, etc.
I agree, though.
Steve,
not that im arguing for a metalic standard but the difference is that the supply of gold etc cant just me increased over night like paper money and therefore devalued. Paper money can be inflated and as such is essentially a tax on wealth.
EJ-While true, that’s sort of an acedemic point since the supply of gold, or silver, far exceeds what we’d ever have circulating as coinage at any one time.
I agree with JohnnyB3 on your predictions. I also agree with Jimmy on the 2nd. No other candidate besides Scott Taylor in the 2nd can beat Glenn Nye. If Scott Taylor doesn’t win, Nye will hold the seat.
David A.- laughable if we doesn’t win. Why do people always have to get on here and act so juvenile. I love reading the opinions when people are stating facts and making good arguments with their opinions, not saying things like a child. I mean, I don’t want Rigell to win, but I am not going to say him winning is laughable. I think with the state of our country, there is no place for people to act like children. Thanks to everyone else above for giving good mature discussions.
“that’s sort of an acedemic point since the supply of gold, or silver, far exceeds what we’d ever have circulating as coinage at any one time.”
thats not true… and it doesnt matter because it has to do with how much gold or silver is backing any given amount of money. In the coins case it literally is the coin that has value. What a metal standard does is prevent the government (the Fed) from creating endless paper notes or electronic money because it must be backed by a hard material… long run inlfation did not exists when the world was on a metalic standar. You would have short periods of inflation ad short periods of deflation. A dollar in 1790 was worth almost the same as a dollar in 1913. The entirety of inflation that has existed in US history has occured since we started taking steps away from a metaloc standard. (though metalix standard have their own problems)
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