2nd District: Canvass, Convention or Primary
By Brian Kirwin | Thursday, December 10th, 2009 | PoliticsSimilar to the drama in the 5th district, where in a rare move 6 candidates issued a joint press release favoring a method of nomination that the 7th apparently doesn’t, the 2nd district has some drama of its own.
The 2nd district has chosen to have a canvass (firehouse primary with multiple locations) nomination, which was fine with everyone until the Canvass for the State Senate seat. Long lines, long waits, running out of ballots, campaigning in the voting area, insufficient parking, lack of voter privacy and confusion about which location one could vote at – that was the experience of the 5 locations chosen to handle voters in a Senate race that involved only half of Virginia Beach.
Second thoughts in the Second district are pretty vocally being aired after that experience. How many locations would be sufficient in the entire second district, which involves ALL of Virginia Beach, the Eastern Shore, and parts of Norfolk and Hampton?
Some are saying a full-on primary would be better run, better organized, and people would have all day, a Tuesday, to vote at their normal location.
Some say primaries are expensive for candidates, requiring massive television buys while Glenn Nye quietly raises money for himself on the sidelines. Plus, primaries are open. Anyone can flood the polls and choose the Republican nominee. A primary chose Creigh Deeds for the Democrats, and look how thrilled they were with that choice!
Some say a convention would chose the best nominee. It worked in nominating Congressman Rob Wittman, by all accounts a fine Republican Congressman. It forces the winner to earn a majority, where a primary or canvass in a large field can yield a winner with a vast majority of voters opposing him. But they can be messy affairs sometimes, especially if more delegates sign up than available voting slots allow.
I haven’t spoken to a single person this week that thinks a Congressional Canvass would be a darn fine operation.
So far, the Second District is mum about changing its decision. What do you think?
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The right wants to jeer him. The left wants to censor him. Moderates usually want both. Brian Kirwin is a political consultant and public relations strategist in Virginia Beach with a lightning-rod flair. Brian also serves on the VB Arts & Humanities Commission and frequently appears on Hampton Roads theatrical stages, if only to prove that all actors aren’t liberals. Kirwin’s columns stir up debate and hit the political scene with no punches pulled.
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22 Responses to "2nd District: Canvass, Convention or Primary"
I was a GOP observer at one of the polling locations. It was hectic with a lot of complaints (privacy, paper ballots, long lines, no parking, pens vs. pencil, right voting place etc). Plus a canvass or convention disenfranchises our military personnel who are residents, because they cannot vote absentee in either one. Whenever the discussion starts about a primary, those who are against it ALWAYS bring out the concern of non-republicans voting. There has never been any quantifiable data that any non-republican voting in a primary has EVER swayed an election. I believe a primary is the way to go…whomever the nominee is, they are going to have to appeal to conservative democrats, independents and republicans alike to win a general election, they might as well get an earlier start in a primary (also builds name i.d.)
Also, rumor is Nye may have a nominations challenge himself…we need to see how that plays out as well.
CONVENTION!
The incredibly high number of military voters in the 2nd is a unique factor that should absolutely be taken into account. In my locality, we literally received zero absentee military ballots. As such, disenfranchising military voters with a certain nominating method is not really a concern. It would seem to me that it is a big concern in the 2nd though. Regardless of what nominating method they choose, I hope the 2nd District Committee finds a way to allow military personnel to vote. Even if very few choose to participate, it is, at worst, a symbolic gesture with significant meaning.
I think it will become clear in the 2nd as it already is in the 5th that Republicans do not want an establishment candidate shoved down there throat through hundreds of thousands of media buys. Let the candidates earn the support of us rather than a select few deciding what’s best for us. This is a national movement, not just a local one. The “establishment” should wait until the dust settles and unite around the winner.
Let me give you an example of non-republicans swinging a primary (I will leave out McCain in favor of the local one). Tricia Stall and Marty Williams in 2007. While it is very true that Stall had a gathering of support within certain parts of the Republican base in NN, it is also clear that the only reason she won that primary were crossover voters. Dems (like some Republicans, a practice I personally disdain) vote for th weakest possible candidate to face their guy. At the time of the Rep. Senate primary in 2007 the Dems had not even nominated a candidate, they were waiting to see who the winner was – after that they nominated a candidate that was going to win going away. In this race, crossover made a big difference.
Govgirl,
You have ACTUAL quantitative data to support this and not just conjecture and hearsay?
Unless you are going to demand that every voter tell you who they voted for and their regular party affiliation it is impossible to have scientific data for the impact of crossover vote. You are setting a standard that cannot possibly be met in order to bolster your argument which is disengenuous to say the least. The truth and quantified data are not necessarily the same, something can be true without their being data to prove it. Whether you like it or not crossover vote happens and I for one think we should choose nomination processes that eliminate this phenomenon. I am also a proponent of closed primary and voter registration, which would solve this entire debate for the most part.
A convention would be a disaster. If people who participated in last Saturday’s special election thought that long lines and lack of parking were a problem, wait until we try to cram a room full of activists. We already have a large interest in this nomination contest and using a convention will just make the chaos even worse. It will likely take all day. We should be making it easy for people to be engaged in the voting process not harder! A primary is the best way to go!
Reid, a primary will take all day, too.
And our new 200 million dollar convention center would host it just fine. It handled Obama’s and McCain/Palin’s rallies just fine.
GovGirl, even as a RINO hunting third party guy, I agree that you’re smart to hold a convention, but your assessment on Stall & Williams misses an important point. “Big Government” Marty Williams was no Republican! HRTA ring a bell? Who did good “Republican” Marty Williams endorse for governor??
Tricia Stall is fantastic, but she set herself up to be labled as an extremist. She took out the darling of the Left. She had some issues that a “witch hunt” could exploit. Don’t be so sure that Marty would have won re-election. Well, unless after waiting to see that Williams won, the Dems happily put up no opposition. Losing Williams and Chichester were the best things that could happen for Virginia and yes, the RPV. Heck, in a way, I’m glad Stolle is a sheriff now.
You’re right though. You need a convention or a 15% needed plurality from a gigantic pool of primary choices could end up nominating a socialist that, lol, demands you vote for him out of party loyalty. Hmmmm…….he might even insist on some oath of party candidate support be sworn…..
Vote for a socialist or be an oath breaker. Nice choices there.
So let me get this straight … we want to start off the process of winning the 2nd District Congressional seat back by holding a convention and disenfranchising all the military voters who are on deployment. That would be a great headline in the VA Pilot.
Conventions are insular and contentious. We should be outward looking in this particular year when our GOP enthusiasm is already sky-high.
Conventions usually get too personal very quickly. I remember the race in the 4th between Randy Forbes and Kirk Cox which almost came to fistfights in the parking lot. The last thing we want to do is have that happen this year in a seat we look to take back from the D’s.
A primary is the easiest and most efficient way to nominate. We get greater participation and spur on excitement about the race. Finally, primaries are a great dress rehearsal for the general election and gets our nominee ready for the fight against Nye.
Brian,
You make some excellent points about the problems of holding a 2nd District Canvass. I was an Elections Official at the RPVB HQ canvass location last Saturday. The canvass was a disaster. The only reason it did not turn into chaos was due to the great efforts of the volunteers who worked nonstop without a break.
Canvasses are great for small, low turn out races like House of Delegates. The Virginia Beach Republican Party currently does not have nearly enough volunteers to properly staff a Congressional Canvass. This past Senate Canvass, the party scraped together 75 volunteers to work the 5 polling locations and it was not nearly enough.
In a Congressional Canvass scenario, you would need to have at least 10 polling places with at least 30 volunteers per precinct in order to guarantee an orderly process. That is 300 volunteers. Where are we going to find these people? The 6 or 7 campaigns will be hoarding as many of their volunteers as possible for their own Get Out The Vote operations. I have run the numbers many times and I do not see where we can get 300 people. The Virginia Beach Republican Party averages only 60 people per week at the Weekly Breakfast and that includes the 20 High School Students who are there for extra credit.
The voting population pool is nealrly 3 times that of the 8th Senate District in the whole city of Virginia Beach
In theory, the Congressional Canvas sounds good; however, the Second District Committee did not think this out properly when they voted for a Canvass.
My recommendation is for the 2nd District Committee to select either a primary or a convention. They need to call a special meeting now and get the ball rolling. If they stick with a Canvass, then we will run the risk of having the election results disputed and perhaps end up in court. Remember, the Democrats control s the Department of Justice and would love for an opportunity to embarrass the Republican Party.
Brian,
Yes I know a primary will take all day too but it does not require voters staying all day to vote multiple times. That was my point. I think that conventions are way too inconvenient for people who want to vote but have other obligations and can’t spend a whole day voting. Also, it’s a huge problem to disenfranchise deployed military.
Reid, nice to know you feel that way about the way we chose Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, Ken Cuccinelli, Congressman Randy Forbes and Congressman Rob Wittman.
Govgirl,
I am not saying that cross-over voting doesn’t occur, I am stating that it does not happen in numbers that actually would alter an elections outcome.
Actually it is quite easy to quantify the impact of cross-over voting. “Your vote is not in fact private. When you select the Republican or Democratic ballot in a primary election, that selection is recorded against your name. Of course the actual person you voted for IS private, but by a clever process of elimination and deduction your vote can be sorted out.
You can scroll down the voter rolls and be able to tell exactly how Joe Virginian voted in the last 6-8 primaries. Did he vote Republican or Democratic? Which years did he vote which way? Who were the candidates each of those years. What can we induce from the way Joe voted; what will persuade him to vote for my candidate in November? How many others voted like Joe, and what trends, handicaps and advantages can we deduce from that” Kim Krautter).
It is a tedious process for sure, but not impossible to quantify. Have you not heard of voter vault? How do you think campaigns get their walk lists and micro-target areas (hard R’s, soft R’s etc.)
“You can scroll down the voter rolls”
Can you? Haven’t you heard about the KNOW campaign going to court because they got “voter rolls” that aren’t supposed to be available to the general public?
Sorry, I was referring to party chairman, political parties, elected officials and campaigns doing this…not your average citizen…that is the context of my statement.
Why not do a convention at the convention center?
Are we going to continue doing things that don’t work well?
I watched the mess that was last weekend… They turned away hundreds of voters. The convention center would be ideal and has the ability to easily accommodate the crowds.
Conjecture is all well and good, but as of this moment there is no indication that the previous, and more importantly, unanimous vote by the committee to hold a canvas is in anyway up in the air. While everyone will admit the 8th District race could have been better executed, at the end of the day it did not impact the results of the race and everyone involved learned lessons to apply to May 8th.
This is why the 8th was held as it was, a trial run to see where our opportunites are. Now that we know them, a May 8th canvas will be executed far better. I have not received any indication from anyone on the 2nd District Board or from a majority of candidates who would prefer the process be changed in light of December 5th
Did you ask?
Didn’t realize you were in constant direct communication with each campaign to make that assertion. Also the decision to hold a canvass by the 2nd, was made before the 8th canvass took place, so the comment about the 8th being a test case doesn’t make sense.
Politically the voting members won’t challenge the unit chair or the stronger members of the 2nd Exec Board if a canvass is what they wanted. So the unanimous decision is really not that impressive to me. Because of the issues that arose during last Saturday’s canvass, this decision should be re-considered.
The canvass was an absolute disaster. It made the Party look bad. They were not able to administer the process effectively with 2 candidates and a turnout of over 7,000 and won’t be able to do so with 5-8 candidates and a turnout of over 10,000-12,000. (Some have said maybe even 15,000)
The Party was TREMENDOUSLY unprepared and lacking of true volunteers, requiring the campaigns to give volunteers in equal numbers for each location which accounted for more than 50% of the people staffing the polls. Under no circumstances should that ever have happened. Imagine trying that with 5-8 candidates.
Canvass is a bad idea.
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