Post-Mortem Op-Ed: How Creigh Deeds Could Have Won Virginia
By D.J. Spiker | Tuesday, November 24th, 2009 | Catch-AllMany pre/post mortems have demonized Creigh Deeds, and rightfully so. His campaign was a comedy of errors nearly from start to finish and with the brief exception of two weeks in September, we never had a close race. While much has been said about his disastrous campaign, I’d like to point out the one, very simple way, that Creigh Deeds could have won the Governor’s Mansion three weeks ago:
Education.
There are three points to my thesis (and please consider this objective and devil’s advocacy, believe me I am thankful everyday that Bob McDonnell is now our Governor-elect, haha). One, Creigh Deeds lost because he provided no alternative to Bob McDonnell, besides having the ‘ – D’ next to his name. His few policies were poorly articulated, written or explained, largely due to Creigh Deeds’ speaking inadequacies. Two, Creigh Deeds had no central message or theme for his campaign, despite numerous ‘resets’ that failed. Three, Creigh Deeds’ legislative record provided little or no boost in the campaign.
If Creigh Deeds has prepared a landmark education package by July 1st and framed his entire campaign around that message, there is a legitimate chance that he would be preparing for inauguration at this very moment. While the economy was clearly THE message and most important issue during the campaign, an issue Deeds failed to capitalize on in any way, a valid argument can be made that which matters more, the economy or education, because which comes first? As in the chicken and the egg analogy, does the economy grow and improve by creating jobs, or does education improvement stimulate the economy by providing qualified workforce and growing technology sectors to create jobs to supply growing demand from interested businesses and companies?
Creigh Deeds was a horrendous speaker, we all know that. He had poor communication skills. But where he shined most, in those rare moments, were on the issues he truly cared about. Education has been a Deeds hallmark for years and his rare great answers in the debates were on education questions. He was in his wheelhouse because he is truly passionate about education, especially given his own background with the four $20 dollar bills he was given heading off to college. Creating a message that plays to his biggest strength, in doing so would minimize his weaknesses on other topics, particularly social issues, Deeds could craft a positive yet easy central theme for his campaign.
Take a look at Deeds legislative record and you’ll see his devotion to education. Hell, Bob McDonnell hammered him for it repeatedly, Deeds crafted legislation that would increase teacher pay, in turn raising our taxes. Had education been Creigh Deeds focus, that argument turns back on McDonnell. ‘Yes Bob, I voted to increase teacher pay; teachers are our most important asset in the education system, they’re the frontlines and I’m going to give them every resource they need to teach our children the right and best way, because I know that improving education is the best way to improve Virginia’s economy.’ Also, by framing his economic message around education, Deeds could point and contrast his legislative record with Bob McDonnell’s. This would given far more added weight to Deeds repeated statements of: ‘Bob McDonnell has never written a bill to create a job’ when contrasted with Deeds’ education policies that would create jobs, according to Deeds.
Give Deeds a central focus to his campaign, and consider how different things would be. The thesis nonsense would have given Deeds an additional advantage in the race, not a central theme. Deeds ranting about $540 million coming from the General Fund, in turn taking it from education would have been far more magnified and personal to Deeds, given education as the central thesis to his campaign. You don’t think that would resonate? ‘I want to fix and improve our education system because it’s the best way to get Virginia back on track; Bob you want to take money from education for a transportation plan that will not work!’ Of course, this would have required Creigh Deeds to have a legitimate transportation plan, not the hollow bullet-points he tried passing as a ‘plan’.
You may disagree, but as the race progressed, there were fewer and fewer avenues to victory for Creigh Deeds. In early October, listening to him speak at the debates, it struck me how passionate he was about education; his speak improved, he articulated far better, he connected with that issue. Yet there he was, dancing around it, hammering on social issues, on the thesis, on economic policies, being the negative candidate. The potential winning ticket may have been there all along, yet none of the vastly overpaid staffers and consultants from his campaign saw it.
And better safe than sorry, there’s a reason until I waited until mid-November to write this!
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Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right...entrenched on the right as a member of the Establishment, proudly tattooed member of the Republican Party, bartender by trade serving both sides the libations needed to continue the debate and discourse. College student, ten years late, majoring in Public Policy and Administration with an eye to serving the conservative and Republican movement in the public or private sector. ducit amor patriae You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com. You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com.
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16 Responses to "Post-Mortem Op-Ed: How Creigh Deeds Could Have Won Virginia"
I don’t think Deeds’ message had to be education. ANY positive message that the campaign had stuck to and laid out in a sensible way would have been an improvement. That said, I just don’t think it was in the cards for a Dem to win this year, given the national and statewide situation. While Obama has gotten a lot of blame for Deeds’ loss, I don’t think Kaine should be let off the hook. In a lot of ways, 2009 was like 1993. Deeds, like Mary Sue Terry, had to deal with an incumbent Dem governor who was rapidly losing popularity due to a bad economy requiring budget cuts that weren’t making anyone happy. Plus he was dealing with the buyer’s remorse that happens during the first year of nearly every president’s term- Republican presidents have done no better than Democrats in helping to hold Virginia’s governors mansion the year after their election.
I have been saying this for days after and months before the election. What moron in the Deeds campaign killed the “Better Schools. Better Jobs.”
rallying cry that took Deeds to a 2-1 victory over McAuliffe’s money?
More crap. Deeds ran a bad campaign. He was the wrong candidate. No vision and no passion. Terry McAuliffe was the right man for Virginia. The democratic primary was unbelievable. Whoever is in charge of the democratic party in Virginia needs to be fired. Letting Moran and Deeds think they could take on the elephant McDonnell was crazy. What did McDonnell do in the military? He was smooth but Terry was way smoother and smarter. When did McDonnell have time to go to law school at Pat Robertson Christian Law Academy anyway? Republicans talk big about military but when it comes time to do the fighting it is the poor enlisted man that gets shot on patrol not the frigging zeros (officers). Was McDonnell EVER in “harm’s way” in the ill-fated Iraq project? Please tell me what he did.
Bigvinu, if you think “Better Schools. Better jobs” is what won the primary, or would’ve made a dent in the general election, I understand why your blog had about as many hits as the youtube channel for famous Klingon Opera singers.
Gosport, i luv ya man, but every Democrat in the history of the nation runs on Education. It’s never enough to win a Virginia Election. What is a Democrat going to run on in terms of education? More money? From where? Less money? Bye Bye Base.
Brian,
You’re going to make me respond to every post you attack me personally aren’t you? I’d d that to, but that wouldn’t really be addressing the point, would it? If you want to talk about the topic at hand, that’s fine with me. Otherwise, you can stop talking.
Now, getting back to the point. We need to ask why “Better Schools. Better Jobs.” has an impact on the primary. Deeds plan was much more appealing to students than the general public. It focused heavily on college opportunities and affordability. The first PPP had Deeds losing 24%-6% to Moran among 18-29 year olds. The last PPP poll has Deeds winning over 35%-21% over Moran. While that may seem to mirror the overall PPP +29 shift from Poll #1 to Poll#6, we have to ask to question of where those Deeds young supporters would have gone had Deeds not laid down a concrete education plan.
Maybe, if we saw Moran lay down that concrete plan, he could have been far more competitive with youth. Deeds effectively placing a lock on the youth vote (I can’t explain that without “Better Schools. Better Jobs.” having some effect), was a critical factor in the Deeds campaign being able to (essentially) ignore Moran. While many Moran diehards may have been surprised showing on Election Day (taking home next-to-no undecideds), it wasn’t surprising seeing as though Moran had virtually no room for growth. The bloc that was supposed to provide that (the youth vote) had already aligned with the Deeds coalition.
As for the implications in the general, I can’t say. I know that Webb won 18-29 year olds 52%-48% and Deeds lost that same category 55%-45%. I’m not stupid, and realize that that alone could not have won Deeds the election. But super developing the education plan to tailor it to all walks could have had some form of an impact. Tailoring it to the laid off workforce needed to be re-educated into new professions, to the parents that want an effective plan for their child’s K-12 education would have helped. I don’t necessarily agree with Gosport that it would have been a game changer a few weeks ago, but a revamp in June, possibly could have won.
“Otherwise, you can stop talking.”
Something you seem incapable of doing. But your comment will help me some night in case insomnia strikes.
So know it’s OK to attack me for trying to get back to the issue that YOU challenged me on and take the debate away from personal blow and after personal blow that YOU are making.
Brian, this is getting quit irritating. I make a comment, you hit me with a personal blow. Trying to get back on the discussion and refute your arguments with some spirited debate, I essentially get a response from someone that doesn’t seem interested in debating the points, and just wants me to be silenced.
Dealing with your actual words, you rely on your numbers for the youth vote polling, and then destroy your own argument by showing that the drop in Moran’s share of it and the gain in Deeds’ share mirrored the overall trend. I also doubt the 18-29 group was any significant percentage of the primary or the general, and “Better schools” just doesn’t bring them out.
What the heck does an 18-29 year old care about improving high schools? Maybe some of the older ones have kids old enough for pre-k, but still, that’s a tiny slice of the electorate. And Deeds has no money to spend. He’d look like an idiot calling for a vast increase of spending in education while Kaine is cutting 2 or 3 billion every couple of months.
In polls, people care about education. But it rarely decides an election. Those who vote with education as a single issue make up their minds long before November.
“Brian, this is getting quit irritating”
Is it now? At what point does it become quit irritating?
and LittleVinu, you lobbied to get me kicked off this site. Don’t whine like a little pansie because my response is too tough for you.
Brian,
I don’t really have time right now to refute all your arguments on education. I need to get to bed. So before you spout off on an argument about how I’m “cowering in fear”, just know I’ll be back to respond later. As for those last other points, I don’t really see how a typo offers justification for a mocking attitude.
Also, I never lobbied to get you kicked off of this site. Your responses aren’t that tough, just an argument that attacks irrelevant points. I didn’t lobby to kick you off, but that sounds very pleasant right now. I wonder at times whether or not it is your goal in life to make enemies. There was absolutely no reason to call me out on irrelevant points in the first point, other than trying to pick a fight.
Little Vine, you called me a “suicide bomber.”
Go to bed. Maybe you’ll sleep it off.
It is certainly food for thought. The Deeds campaign did seem pretty directionless and without any substantive issues. At the end of the day however, I don’t think Deeds really ever stood much of a chance. Don’t know if any campaign tactic could have changed that.
Brian,
I stand by my labeling…… Actually the phrase is supposed to be a joke on Ben Tribbett who labeled Creigh Deeds as a “suicide bomber” when in fact NLS was being the suicide bomber. As a result, someone who’s willing to bolster party infighting to extreme levels is a “suicide bomber” in my book.
Your book? a comic book most likely
Nice article. Interesting analogy combined with some subjective conjecturing. Education is the “egg” as you aptly named it. Education is and must always be the foundation of a nation’s future growth. We ignore the importance of it at our own peril. Deeds had some very interesting ideas about education, but in the end it boils down to one very simple question—How do you pay for it? In a time of economic uncertainty (like we are currently in) priorities naturally evolve to the immediate needs (job, shelter, food) and less on issues like education, immigration reform and transportation. Not to say that any of those items are less important…
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