Bob McDonnell’s Electoral Victory

By Kate Obenshain
Vice President, Young America’s Foundation; Former RPV Chairman

Try as they might, liberal pundits cannot explain away Bob McDonnell’s 18-point election victory over Creigh Deeds by saying that Virginia always elects governors who are not of the president’s party. That’s like saying Republicans win the presidency every time the Redskins win the preceding game (a gloomy prospect for the foreseeable future if it were true).

Superstition won’t explain these election results or the 25-point swing from the Democrats to Republicans in just one year. Neither will claims that McDonnell won by running away from his staunch conservative beliefs.

Bob McDonnell won because he captured Independents by a margin of two to one by talking about the issues on which Virginians were focused. The Associated Press exit polls found that eight out of ten voters were concerned about the economy. McDonnell exhibited one of the attributes of a great candidate, picking up early on the tune of the electorate and running with it.

He campaigned on creating jobs and producing economic vitality by unleashing the power of the free market through lower taxes and less regulation. Nothing timid about that. Pure conservatism.

Tired of candidates who throw around empty, childish slogans, Virginians were treated to a bevy of thoughtful, detailed policy initiatives on transportation, education and economics by the McDonnell team, following in the successful footsteps of George Allen’s 1993 gubernatorial campaign. Allen, countering claims that he was “all hat and no cattle,” unleashed a torrent of breakthrough policy ideas, ranging from abolishing parole to freezing college tuition, from dramatically reforming welfare to implementing high academic standards. The issues this year were different, but the approach of producing common sense solutions was identical.

McDonnell did not campaign on social issues because the electorate was not focused on them. In fact Creigh Deeds tried, with all the vigor his beleaguered campaign operation could muster, to bring up social issues through what he hoped would be the saving grace of his campaign: The Thesis. It fizzled because voters believed McDonnell when he said that, like most of us, some of his ideas have changed over the past twenty years since he wrote it. He did not disavow his thesis, but he was clear: he is surrounded by strong women in his family and professional life and believes they should be free to pursue their dreams, whatever they may be.

Deeds silly attempt to divert attention from the economy backfired. McDonnell was able to break even among women voters (49 to 51% statewide), and even carried the liberal-leaning Fairfax County, an area where Deeds targeted women by pouring in money and thesis-based advertising .

No doubt the ineptitude of the Deeds campaign, and the floundering of the candidate himself, played a role in the drubbing. Viral videos rampaged throughout Virginia, showing Deeds promising, in the same sentence, both to raise taxes and not to raise taxes. Far more resonant with Virginia women voters than the thesis-attack was the video-captured moment when Deeds looked down his nose at a thirty-something female reporter who asked a reasonable follow-up question to the tax non-answer. Deeds paused as he looked at her, and responded with unreserved disgust, “I think I just answered that, young lady.” The reporter, clearly taken aback, apologized, saying, “I’m sorry, Creigh, I wasn’t trying to be mean.” He lost his cool when he was unable to articulate a compelling position—or any position at all—on taxes, and turned on a woman. Not good. Not good at all.

Despite Robert Gibbs insistence that such reflections are mere navel-gazing, there is no denying that the president had significant impact on the outcome of the Virginia race. He made two visits to Virginia in support of the Democrat candidate. Deeds also ran a nostalgic, feel-good Obama ad in the waning weeks of the campaign, but to no avail. Virginians, who had supported Obama by five percentage points a year ago, were frustrated by the economy and disillusioned by the Democrats overreach on federal spending and health care. They made it clear this was not what they signed up for.

Conveniently overlooked by the presidential apologists claiming zero presidential impact is Northern Virginia’s proximity to Washington, DC. Because of the media outlets, the region is necessarily fixated on and influenced by the national goings-on. Clearly, Northern Virginia was less than impressed.

Deeds was unable to energize enough of the half million new voters from 2008 to make a difference. These Obama-enthusiasts, the most likely to be positively impacted by the president’s involvement, were disenchanted by Deeds indecision about whether to invoke Obama or not. When asked if he were an Obama Democrat, he paused painfully, then stated proudly that he was a “Deeds Democrat.” Oh my.

Virginia’s current governor, Tim Kaine, was unable to give Deeds the help that Mark Warner heaped on Kaine four years earlier. Then-Governor Warner had sky-high popularity in large part because cooperation from moderate Senate Republicans helping him raise taxes inoculated him from conservative attacks. Kaine has been under steady attack by Republican Party of Virginia for his MIA status Virginia while serving as Democratic National Party chairman, and for his support of the liberal agenda coming out of Washington. Kaine, with an approval rating hovering around fifty percent was virtually useless to Deeds, other than sending much-needed DNC dollars.

But for all the faults of the Democrats during the election, the real credit for the Republican sweep of the three statewide races goes to Bob McDonnell, himself. Comparisons to former governors George Allen and Jim Gilmore have been made, but perhaps the most appropriate would be Ronald Reagan. McDonnell is articulate and intensely “likeable.” He is polished, but sincere. Few people, even among Democrats, despise him, despite philosophical differences.

Even when he served as the chair of the sometimes contentions courts committee, Bob McDonnell was well-regarded by Republicans and Democrats alike for being responsible and even-tempered.

Like Reagan, McDonnell is conservative, and doesn’t hesitate to say so. He has championed conservative principles and spearheaded legislation such as parental consent for abortion and banning of partial birth abortions. But like Reagan, he picks his battles carefully, focusing on those that push forward his conservative agenda with victories. Through his years in the legislature, and as Attorney General, he has learned how to reach across the aisle effectively to win battles, without sacrificing principle. During Governor Allen’s legislatively historic term, he tapped McDonnell, then a relatively new legislator, as one of his floor leaders for fights on welfare reform, juvenile justice reform and parole abolition. The passage of each initiative was in no small part the result of a skilled diplomacy of Bob McDonnell.

Daunting challenges face McDonnell and his expanded majority in the House of Delegates. Severe economic woes, transportation gridlock reaching a state of crisis, and skyrocketing college tuition all portend tough times ahead. But McDonnell, with his overwhelming mandate, has a tremendous opportunity, and indeed a responsibility, to face these challenges with the bold free market, limited government approach that has defined him. No doubt McDonnell has bold plans, given this mandate. Conservatives are confident that they include fundamentally reforming state government and taking the lead in the national fight against costly federal mandates and regulations that are putting states in a fiscally untenable position.

If Bob McDonnell takes advantage of his mandate for conservative leadership, and succeeds in governing as well as he succeeded as a candidate, the nation will have found more than a model for a successful political campaign. It will have found a statesman, and we are in desperate need of a few more of those.

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