Freshmen congressmen Glenn Nye (D-2) and Tom Perriello (D-5) both defeated incumbent Republicans in 2008, but are high on the national target list by the GOP in 2010.
Both have made themselves vulnerable, but in different ways, for the coming election.
In a nutshell, Nye has nearly cast himself as a continuation of Republican policy. Some might call him “Republican Lite”, but on major votes regarding the budget, cap-and-trade, and health care, he has bucked both the administration and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, convincing some liberal special interest groups that there is nothing “Lite” about him at all, weakening his position with the base. On the other hand, Perriello has towed the party line, with one notable exception: the budget, citing earmark reform and transparency as cause for his opposition. However, he voted for the National Energy Tax and the government take-over of health care, appeasing the liberati of his Charlottesville base, but flying directly in the face of his conservative constituency.
First, check out the votes on these bills:
For the budget, passage was 233-196 (3 NV).
For Waxman-Markey, passage was 219-212 (3 NV).
And, finally, on health care, passage was 220-215.
Democrats currently hold a 258-177 majority.
This means that Speaker Pelosi has 40 votes she can allow to go “off the reservation” at any one time, and still have enough votes to ensure final passage of any major bill.
When you look at these bills, you see both the controversial votes (new legislation) have “just enough” in terms of passage.
So, the question becomes, why did Nye vote against the bills and Perriello vote for them?
In the 2009 General Election, Bob McDonnell won the second district 62-38% and the fifth district 61-39%, Bill Bolling 56-44 and 60-40, and Ken Cuccinelli 60-40 and 62-38.
What’s telling in those results is that the fifth voted more conservative in the down-ticket races. In other words, as the candidates became slightly less well known, the majority in the fifth preferred more conservative policies.
So why is it that Perriello is the more liberal of the two congressman? Quite frankly, I have no idea. His votes seem to indicate he’s only interested in serving one term.
If you were to tell me that between Nye and Perriello, one would have voted three times with the Republicans on all the major legislation of 2009, I certainly would have not picked Nye.
Nye, who represents the Eastern Shore, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach, is expected to be a bit more moderate (dare I say even “forgiven”). Instead, he’s been consistently conservative. Why is he voting to the right? His votes are begging him to be engaged in a primary. Some have even speculated that this is part of concerted effort by Rep. Eric Cantor to get Nye to defect. But all it really seems to have done is tick-off his base.
So, it’s an interesting dichotomy that sets up the GOP quite nicely going into 2010. Nye has eroded his foundation and Perriello has slapped his broader constituency in the face.
Can’t wait for 2010!
