Exit Polls are crappola

Media sources are all touting exit polls as if they’re giving useful information, like whether the election was about Obama, and which demographic groups voted for whom.

Vivian Paige and I were reviewing Virginia exit polls, when we discovered they are full of …, well, fertilizer.

The tip-off was this question:

Vote by Size of Place
Total D Deeds R McDonnell
Big Cities (N/A) N/A N/A
Smaller Cities (21%) 56% 44%
Suburbs (48%) 43% 57%
Small Towns (3%) N/A N/A
Rural (28%) 31% 68%

Big Cities N/A????? they conducted exit polls without getting a single sample from a big city? The regional vote of Richmond/East didn’t include Richmond? They split out the “Hampton Roads” vote without a big city? Northern Virginia without a big city?

Guess they deduced the African American vote from sampling Isle of Wight county. The youth vote from Poquoson. I mean, folks all over the media are quoting these exit polls like their the Bible.

“This was a suburban election” Well, when the exit polls leave out every big city in Virginia, hell yes it’s a suburban election. No responses from Asians, Latinos and none from any African American under 45. Great data, folks.

“This race was not about Obama” Maybe not in Roanoke, but it sure was in Virginia Beach. Ok, that’s another fallacy. People said their votes weren’t about Obama. That doesn’t mean they weren’t about government takeovers of health care, cap and trade and all that mess in Washington DC. It just means people weren’t voting with Obama on their minds. His policies? I guarantee you, yes. Him personally, no. But vapid media analysts are confusing the two.

New Jersey’s exit polls have the same problem.

To political professionals who plan to use these exit polls to plan for upcoming campaigns, it sucks to be you.

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