Continuing our HoD discussions, Part I (cakewalks), Part II (Republicans), Part III (Democrats), here is our final Toss-Up Predictions, and our official races that are Too Close to Call!
Too Close to Call:
44th (open seat)
Scott Surovell (D) vs Jay McConville (R) vs Glenda Parker (IG)
McConville’s early success pushed incumbent Kris Amundsen into retirement, leaving Dems scrambling in mid-June for a candidate before landing on former Fairfax Democratic Party Chair Scott Surovell. Surovell is one of the few Democratic candidates in the Commonwealth who have weathered the McDonnell tide. However, given the makeup of the district (45/55 Democratic, roughly) this is an uphill battle for McConville. That being said, with a third party candidate the McConville campaign hopes can siphon votes from Surovell, and the McDonnell coattails, this race goes down to the wire. Additionally, GOPAC has tabbed this race as one of the Top 5 most winnable. Very slight lean to Surovell, but I’m going with Too Close to Call.
64th
Bill Barlow* (D) vs Stan Clark (R) vs Al Burckard (I)
This district begged for a legitimate Republican challenger (nearly 55% McCain in 2008) Barlow and Clark have run neck and neck, however I’m hearing polling in early October had McDonnell with only a one point lead, preventing a coattail effect if that stays true to Election Day. Barlow has managed to squeak through repeatedly in the past; will the same happen this year?
80th (open seat)
Matthew James (D) vs Jennifer Lee (R)
Call me crazy…I know, a district that goes 75% for Obama as a Too Close to Call? Internal polling had this race at +7 James (with 62% undecided, and a 50% dropoff from Deeds voters) Lee has reached beyond the Republican Party to independents and soft Democrats who tip the scales, including going into black churches. Having walked over 6,000 doors alone in addition to her campaign while James runs a safe (re: cautious) campaign, with no GOTV or door-knocking effort, Lee has a legitimate chance at stealing this one from underneath the Democratic noses. Tips towards Matthew James, but this one will go down to the wire.
21st
Bobby Mathieson* (D) vs Ron Villanueva (R)
Virginia Beach, Bob McDonnell’s home political turf, proves to be too much for Mathieson to retain. Villanueva wins narrowly.
35th
Mark Keam (D) vs James Hyland (R)
Tempting to pick Hyland; I think turnout makes the difference here, but going with Keam.
52nd
Rafael Lopez (R) vs Luke Torian (D)
Despite running one of the worst races in a winnable seat, Torian takes this seat.
91st
Tom Gear* (R) vs Sam Eure (D) vs Gordon Helsel (I)
The likelihood of a Republican incumbent falling in this political climate is slim; the fact that this race is this tight is a scary proposition for Gear, but I think he’ll come out on top.
