Election Countdown: Statewide/House of Delegate Predictions/Breakdown – Part I

By D.J. Spiker | Saturday, October 31st, 2009 | Politics

With Election Day rapidly approaching, the story has turned to how far down will Bob McDonnell’s momentum and coattails go? Races thought to be safe for Democrats are suddenly in play, other races thought to be a toss-up are suddenly in the safe column. As such, here’s Part I of our breakdown for the House of Delegate races around the state. (includes Statewide, Toss-Ups, Cakewalks and No Challengers)

Governor:
Bob McDonnell (R) vs Creigh Deeds (D)

Outcome: Likely Republican

A margin of victory in the double-digits is not out of the realm of possibility. There’s grassroots efforts to remove Creigh Deeds from the ticket, including a write-in campaign for ‘Public Option’ for Governor. When that’s the only momentum on your side in the last week…you’re toast.

Lt Governor:
Bill Bolling* (R) vs Jody Wagner (D)

Outcome: Likely Republican

In the race likely to be the closest of the three races, Bolling has closed the deal but isn’t receiving the same numbers as McDonnell and Cuccinelli.

Attorney General
Ken Cuccinelli (R) vs Steve Shannon (D)

Outcome: Likely Republican

Despite the radical attacks by the liberal media (WaPo, Pilot, we’re looking at you) and ramped up negative attacks from Steve Shannon, Cuccinelli maintains his lead, even growing the lead while Shannon remains stagnant. Despite this race being what the Dems view as their best hope, like the Governor’s race, this one is all over but the voting.

House of Delegates:
Toss-Ups:

21st
Bobby Mathieson* (D) vs Ron Villanueva (R)

This race will come down to turnout. While Villanueva’s numbers were in the lead for the early summer, steadily they have come back, resulting in a statistical tie with Mathieson. If McDonnell’s coattails prove to be overwhelming, Villanueva’s numbers should be enough to topple a Democratic incumbent. Given the polling for McDonnell, this may result in a Democratic incumbent falling, but won’t know until after 7 PM on Tuesday.

35th
Mark Keam (D) vs James Hyland (R)

Another race that in any other year would likely be a solid Democratic seat, Hyland has ran a great campaign; combined with McDonnell’s momentum this is another race that’s likely to go to the wire. Democrats love Keam, they are fighting tooth and nail to maintain Steve Shannon’s open seat.

52nd
Rafael Lopez (R) vs Luke Torian (D)

Jeff Frederick’s seat was supposed to be a easy Democratic pickup. Torian and Lopez have been running neck and neck for who has the worst campaign, but the last month Torian has taken a clear lead in that race. As a result Lopez and Torian will go down to Tuesday will little idea who might emerge as the new representative for the 52nd.

91st
Tom Gear* (R) vs Sam Eure (D) vs Gordon Helsel (I)

Helsel continues running a remarkable race, while Gear has run a so-so campaign. While Gear may retain this seat, it remains a toss-up.

No Challengers

1st – Terry Kilgore (R)
2nd – Bud Phillips (D)
4th – Joe Johnson (D)
5th – Bill Carrico (R)
16th – Donald Merricks (R)
22nd – Kathy Byron (R)
27th – Sam Nixon (R)
31st – Scott Lingamfelter (R)
33rd – Joe May (R)
36th – Ken Plum (D)
49th – Adam Ebbin (D)
54th – Bobby Orrock (R)
59th – Watkins Abbitt (I)
60th – James Edmunds (R)
61st – Tommy Wright (R)
62nd – Riley Ingram (R)
63rd – Rosalyn Dance (D)
66th – Kirk Cox (R)
72nd – Jimmie Massie (R)
75th – Roslyn Tyler (D)
76th – Chris Jones (R)
77th – Lionell Spruill (D)
78th – John Cosgrove (R)
79th – Johnny Joannou (D)
81st – Barry Knight (R)
84th – Sal Iaquinto (R)
88th – Mark Cole (R)
92nd – Jeion Ward (D)
95th – Mamye BaCote (D)
96th – Brenda Pogge (R)
97th – Chris Peace (R)
98th – Harvey Morgan (R)

Outcomes:
21 Republican / 10 Democrat / 1 Independent

Cakewalks / Guaranteed Incumbent Win
* Incumbent

8th
Morgan Griffith* (R) vs Carter Turner (D)
9th
Charles Poindexter* (R) vs Sherman Withcer (I)
11th
Onzlee Ward* (D) vs Troy Bird (R)
12th
James Shuler* (D) vs Paul Cornett (I)
18th
Clay Athey* (R) vs Jack Todd (C)
28th
William Howell* (R) vs Craig Ennis (IG)
29th
Beverly Sherwood* (R) vs Aaron Tweedie (I)
30th
Ed Scott* (R) vs Matthew Carson (I)
37th
David Bulova* (D) vs Anna Choi (IG) vs Chris DeCarlo (I)
46th
Charniele Herring* (D) vs Sasha Gong (R)
53rd
Jim Scott* (D) vs Chris Merola (R)
57th
James Toscano* (D) vs Robert Smith (I)
65th
R. Lee Ware* (R) vs Gary Reinhardt (I)
68th
Manoli Loupassi* (R) vs Bill Grogan (I)
70th
Delores McQuinn* (D) vs Henry Brown (I)
71st
Jennifer McClellan* (D) vs Silver Persinger (I)
74th
Joe Morrissey* (D) vs Michael Gage (R)
85th
Bob Tata* (R) vs French Mackes (C)
89th
Kenny Alexander* (D) vs Anthony Triplin (I)
99th
Albert Pollard* (D) vs Catherine Crabill (R)

Outcomes:
9 Republican / 11 Democrat

Tags: