In the latest in the bizarre world of the Creigh Deeds gubernatorial campaign, Politico has released an extensive article from the Deeds campaign trumpeting their strategy: shore up the Democratic base.
Let’s set aside for the moment that even having the strengthen your base of voters shows Deeds is weak from the get-go. While it’s true that Deeds has failed to excite Virginian Democrats as well as the left nationally and has failed to close the enthusiasm gap, Creigh Deeds is not losing this election because Democrats aren’t voting for him. Deeds has been trailing since the outset because independents, who ultimately determine if Virginia swings red or blue, haven’t bought into his candidacy. There’s a reason that while every poll since the campaign season began after Labor Day has shown a five-to-fourteen point gap, the most significant Deeds’ deficits are among independents.
But the Deeds campaign has shown little interest in wooing moderates and independents. The thesis remains the central issue for Deeds, despite all polling showing the thesis ranks near last in importance among voters, as well as increasing deficits in polls. While McDonnell remains on message, economy, jobs and transportation, Deeds continue his focus on social issues. The two ‘big’ news pieces for the Deeds campaign this weekend were aimed exclusively at the left; President Obama finally agreeing to visit, who’s popularity among independents has plummeted in the last four months; and the Washington Post endorsement.
Simply put, Creigh Deeds is now gambling his election chances on getting turnout along the lines of 2008 in terms of party lines. This, despite the fact that Dems have lost the enthusiasm race, the grassroots duel, have a far weaker ticket across the the state but most importantly, have no coherent and focused message to drive home in the next two weeks. Additionally, remember the PPP poll from last month, that even with voter turnout equal to 2008, Deeds would still lose by 5 points. Deeds has never crossed the 46% plateau in polling, even with significantly higher Democratic samples. Deeds would therefore have to increase Democratic turnout by an almost impossible 5%, or 110,000 to 160,000 additional voters voting exclusively for Deeds.
Ouch.
