Hamilton wins? A GOP tide in VA?
By JR Hoeft | Wednesday, October 14th, 2009 | PoliticsSources close to House of Delegate Republicans are sounding awfully confident three weeks out, predicting between 5-8 GOP pick-ups and retaining embattled Republican Del. Phil Hamilton’s seat in the 93th.
Now, I’m not ready to drink the Kool-Aid yet on Hamilton, but he has done excellent things for his district. Is there an air of forgiveness? Or do residents of the 94th realize what policies Abbott would bring to Mr. Jefferson’s capitol building – and that’s enough for them to stick with what they know?
Elsewhere, beginning in Hampton Roads, Chris Stolle might be able to pick-off Del. Joe Bouchard (D). Especially given Bouchard’s prevalence at making outlandish statements about non-existent race issues.
Del. Bobby Mathieson (D) though is looking good in the 21st. City Councilman Ron Villanueva is in striking distance, but he’s going to need lots of help to get over the hump.
Throughout the rest of the state, it also looks like Barbara Comstock, Jim LeMunyon, Jay McConnville, Rich Anderson, Rafael Lopez, Dave Albo, Tom Rust, and Stan Clark might just might be popping a cork or two late on Nov. 3.
However, beyond even these, given current Virginia trends, there could be some surprises. The bottom line is that those close to a lot of the polling data and info are confident about these races, but the key will be working hard the final few weeks to turn these potential gains into reality…and maybe pick-up a few more.
In order for Bob McDonnell to have a clear mandate, these seats will have to be won. And it wouldn’t hurt if others were picked up too.
We’ll be watching these races closely the next couple weeks to see what the trend is. If it is favorable to the GOP. Nov. 3 is going to send shockwaves throughout the country.
Be sure to also take a look at Jim Riley’s post on Virtucon.
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About the author
Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
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5 Responses to "Hamilton wins? A GOP tide in VA?"
Betcha a steak dinner Villanueva wins by more than 4 points.
No kidding. Democrats don’t run as much negative ads as Mathieson has unless their scared. Villanueva has got to be winning.
Stay tuned to the 35th! Jim Hyland has a great campaign going and is picking up endorsements every day like the NOVA Tech Council, NFIB, Fairfax Chamber of Commerce and NOVA Realtors. There is an upset brewing in the 35th!!!
[...] I would call “energy” leading to a “takeover” of the House. Compare this to yesterday’s post where Republicans are thinking they can capture anywhere between 3-8 seats this [...]
JR-Hamilton is the 93rd, not 94th. He’s doing better than I would have expected, Abbott is not a terrific candidate from what I hear.
On the larger point, sources close to the House Republican Caucus would be making happy noises right now, even if they thought they were going to lose five. My guess is it’s about +2 either way, depending on how the close races break, which will depend on the top of the ticket. If you believe that McDonnell is going to win by 9, then a big GOP pickup could possibly happen. I think the final margin will be closer than the polls we’ve seen so far, more like McDonnell by 4. That won’t produce much in the way of coattails or much of a net change in the House.
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