The most recent polls look very good for Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell. He has more than doubled his lead in the Washington Post (+9), Survey USA has him up (+11), Rasmussen (+9), and even the liberal Public Policy Polling folks have him outside the margin of error (+5).
This is very good. And, in many respects, it is due to McDonnell staying true to talking about issues that matter to Virginians and Creigh Deeds talking about…well, I don’t know.
However, I also remember McDonnell was up 12 on June 3, only to trail Deeds after the primary on June 10 by 6. Yes, it was a primary bump, but it also was a huge swing in only six days. Politics is finicky and no lead is safe.
I also know that we have just under four weeks to go…and that is an eternity in politics…and baseball.
If you are a die-hard Tigers fan, you may want to skip to the bottom of this post because the following is not for the faint of heart. The following is rated “R” for horror this Halloween season.
Consider that with only a month left in the baseball season, the Detroit Tigers, who had been in first place since May 10, had a seven game lead on the Minnesota Twins. If you are unfamiliar with baseball, this lead is enormous. Consider that in order to overtake the Tigers, Minnesota would have to win a majority of their remaining twenty-plus baseball games (over 80%), if the Tigers merely won 50% of theirs. Consider that Detroit had played nearly .600 baseball all season, so Minnesota performing this feat was highly unlikely.
Consider that with four games left, Detroit had a three game lead on the Twins and NO baseball team had ever overcome that deficit to go to the playoffs.
No lead is safe.
Consider that going into the last WEEKEND of the baseball season, Detroit had two game lead over the Twins. If Detroit won only one of their remaining three games, and Minnesota lost one of theirs, Detroit wins the division. Surely Minnesota wouldn’t win every game?
They did. And Detroit only won one. This meant a one-game playoff.
No lead is safe.
During the game, two-thirds of the way through the game, Detroit had a 3-0 lead. But after seven innings, Detroit was losing 4-3.
No lead is safe.
The Tigers mounted a comeback in regulation play and then, in extra innings, took the LEAD! Only to see Minnesota tie it again.
No lead is safe.
In the final inning played, Detroit had the bases loaded with only one out. Surely any slow-hit ground ball or a fly ball to the outfield would score the go-ahead run, right?
What actually happened is the Tiger batter was hit! Detroit scores, right?
Nope…the umpire missed the call.
Nothing is guaranteed.
No problem, right. A slow-hit grounder or fly ball still scores the run.
Well, a slow-hit grounder was hit and a great play was made at home. No score. And the next guy struck out. Three outs.
Nothing is guaranteed.
In the bottom of that inning, Minnesota won the game. They are the champions. Detroit: epic collapse.
Nothing is guaranteed. No lead is safe.
It has taken me almost a week to get over this loss enough to write this post, but I feel the story has a very clear lesson for those enjoying Bob McDonnell’s lead.
McDonnell can still lose his lead due to the pitfalls that plague any campaign the last month:
- YouTube! You never know what someone (and I don’t even mean McDonnell or the campaign) is going to say and in what context it will be said
- October surprise. Hey, it happens.
- Creigh Deeds suddenly finds a policy.
- Or, most likely, something strange happens beyond the control of the candidates.
But Bob McDonnell is not the Detroit Tigers. His skills as a politician will not suddenly disappear the way the Detroit Tigers hitting did.
And Creigh Deeds is not the Minnesota Twins. His skills as a politician will not suddenly become like Kennedy or Roosevelt the way Minnesota suddenly became the 1929 New York Yankees.
So, the moral to this story is that if you support McDonnell, do not stop campaigning for him now. Re-double your efforts. Because you know clearly now, thanks to the Detroit Tigers, that no lead is safe and there are no guarantees.
