SurveyUSA’s new poll is out, trampling the ‘momentum’ generated from a flawed PPP poll this morning. September with a double digit lead? Deeds’ Tuesday just got a whole lot worse. Notes:
– Bob McDonell +14 (55/41, with just 4% undecided); Bill Bolling +13 (54/41, with 5% undecided); Ken Cuccinelli +11 (53/42, with 5% undecided)
Bob McDonnell notes
– +17 among men, +10 among women (what thesis?)
– A stunning +24 among independents
– Attracting 13% of Obama voters, against Deeds 7% of McCain voters
– SurveyUSA breaks Virginia down into 4 sections, with Bob’s closest margin of +2 in ‘northeast’ which includes NoVa, and a far more realistic +9 in ‘southeast’ which includes Hampton Roads
– Gun owners favor Bob 68/31
Bill Bolling notes:
– Has more liberal support than Bob, 15% vs 11%, respectively
– Higher points in ‘northeast’ than Bob, 50 vs 43
Ken Cuccinelli notes:
– attracts more Obama voters than any Republican statewide candidate, 15%
– has ‘tightest’ independent gap, (only) +17
Now, being fair, this poll more than likely skews heavier Republican than other polls (37R/32D/29I) but given the enthusiasm gap in this election, that’s arguably expected, but may be slightly higher than typical. This poll is likely voters and has a better cross-reference of geographical areas than the PPP poll.
The truth is Bob’s lead is somewhere between this poll, +14 and the PPP showing +5. Regardless, Republicans remain on track for a clean sweep this November. All candidates have done a great job ignoring the polls and running as if they’re ten points behind.
Maybe that Linwood Holton endorsement today will cut into this lead?
*cricket*
Or not.
