New Rasmussen poll shows silver lining, but offers a significant warning
By JR Hoeft | Thursday, September 17th, 2009 | PoliticsWell, the happy, lazy summer days are gone.
Rasmussen Reports has just released their latest poll calling the race a “toss up.”
This is not a surprise to anyone here. Least of all Brian Kirwin about a month ago:
Deeds hasn’t told anyone what he’d do as Governor, other than decide what to do once he’s Governor. If he actually decides to start campaigning, the gap could close quickly.
….
More likely we’ll see a giant onslaught of attack ads trying to make McDonnell look like some caricature of himself and try to win the way Deeds won the primary…by being the one with the least negatives.
….
So while Republicans are enjoying a wide lead, we should pretend like it’s a 5 point race. Engage your neighbors. Write letters to the editor. Help your local Republican candidates. Tell people why you support Bob McDonnell.Let’s not relax until the last vote is cast.
Well, now it’s a two point race among likely voters. The attack ads materialized. And kicking-it is no longer an option.
Here’s a couple things to take solace in:
1) Not all these folks are going to vote. Pure and simple. Republicans are still hungry and turnout post presidential elections is certainly not as large. So, this should still be to the GOP advantage.
2) McDonnell still has a 54% favorable and Deeds just got to 50%. This despite all the hits on McDonnell.
3) McDonnell is very strong with the base:
McDonnell’s support remains a bit more solid than Deeds’. Eighty-one percent (81%) of those who plan to vote for the Republican candidate are certain they will not change their mind. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Deeds supporters say the same. Among those who are certain, McDonnell leads by seven percentage points.
4) The president’s favorability is below 50% and a whole slew of national issues are still ticking-off the electorate.
So, what does this poll tell us?
What we always knew – it’s a long campaign and Democrats and the Washington Post will stop at nothing to win it.
We should do the same. I know Bearing Drift will. And we do our research.
Also blogging: Virginia Virtucon and The Write Side
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About the author
Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
Comments
6 Responses to "New Rasmussen poll shows silver lining, but offers a significant warning"
The best thing EVERYONE can do is get out there talking to your neighbors and every other person you can. Also if you have the time (MAKE the time) get out to your local Victory HQ and make phone calls. So many people don’t even know there is an election this year, we have to keep spreading the word for our candidates.
I think you over played the early McD lead. Voters are just now begining to look at the candidates. The race has always been a toss up looking back to 2005. The candidates are still the same.
I still expect Deeds to win in November.
As a person representing a union that just endorsed Deeds would.
[...] Yeah, we know about the Rasmussen poll, J.R. has a pretty good take on it over at Bearing Drift: New Rasmussen poll shows silver lining, but offers a significant warning [...]
If my conservative wife’s thoughts on McDonnell’s grad school thesis is any barrometer of the bind GOP women are in, I think McDonnell is in bigger trouble than even this poll indicates. The problem is, while my wife is a stay at home mom – she doesn’t like the idea that someone/government should tell her how to live her life, in particular whether it is appropriate to work outside the home.
It’s good to know your wife’s feelings, I bet she even gets mad at you sometimes.
I bet voting for a Democrat will REALLY improve her chances that government will not tell her how to live her life, but a twenty year old paper will most definitely remind her that she can’t be the woman that she already is today….
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