Unheard of Polling Firm Gives Dems False Hope

Take a look at these numbers:

Bob McDonnell : 42%
Creigh Deeds: 37%
Undecided: 20%

Bill Bolling: 38%
Jody Wagner: 32%
Undecided: 31%

Ken Cuccinelli: 35%
Steve Shannon: 30%
Undecided: 35%

Looks to me like that could be one of many polls taken in May or June, shortly after the Republican and Democratic tickets became official, right? Wrong. These numbers come from the Clarus Research Group, a polling firm who has never polled in Virginia before, in a poll taken from September 10 – 14th.

Problems with this poll are numerous, the largest among them being the poll is registered voters, not likely voters. As a comparison, in August the WaPo did a poll reporting registered and likely voters, which showed Bob McDonnell with a +7 margin among registered, but an overwhelming +15 among likely voters. One month later, a two point swing towards Deeds’ would indicate among likely voters, Bob McDonnell is currently up +13 in this poll; however, Clarus did not identify likely voters.

Other issues with the poll:

the independent margin is +7 in McDonnell’s favor (+24 from 9/1 PPP; +11 SurveyUSA 9/4)

McDonnell, this summer, has never polled below 44%, with one exception: June 10th, the day after the Democratic primary

the number of undecideds is at least doubly higher than every other recent poll (20/32/35 Clarus; 9/14/17 PPP; 4/6/6 SurveyUSA)

The sample size (600) is FAR too small to give accurate numbers; the last registered voters only poll was conducted in June, with a sample size of 1685 RV; previous to that in May, 1701 RV

Deeds’ will almost certainly use this poll to show that his schizophrenic campaign tactics are taking their toll. The reality is, Bob continues to lead by double-digits, which will almost assuredly go up after receiving the NRA endorsement as well as Deeds’ misguided attempts at downplaying it. Today’s poll is an aberration, no matter how much Democrats may attempt to spin it.