Unheard of Polling Firm Gives Dems False Hope
By D.J. Spiker | Tuesday, September 15th, 2009 | PoliticsTake a look at these numbers:
Bob McDonnell : 42%
Creigh Deeds: 37%
Undecided: 20%Bill Bolling: 38%
Jody Wagner: 32%
Undecided: 31%Ken Cuccinelli: 35%
Steve Shannon: 30%
Undecided: 35%
Looks to me like that could be one of many polls taken in May or June, shortly after the Republican and Democratic tickets became official, right? Wrong. These numbers come from the Clarus Research Group, a polling firm who has never polled in Virginia before, in a poll taken from September 10 – 14th.
Problems with this poll are numerous, the largest among them being the poll is registered voters, not likely voters. As a comparison, in August the WaPo did a poll reporting registered and likely voters, which showed Bob McDonnell with a +7 margin among registered, but an overwhelming +15 among likely voters. One month later, a two point swing towards Deeds’ would indicate among likely voters, Bob McDonnell is currently up +13 in this poll; however, Clarus did not identify likely voters.
Other issues with the poll:
Deeds’ will almost certainly use this poll to show that his schizophrenic campaign tactics are taking their toll. The reality is, Bob continues to lead by double-digits, which will almost assuredly go up after receiving the NRA endorsement as well as Deeds’ misguided attempts at downplaying it. Today’s poll is an aberration, no matter how much Democrats may attempt to spin it.
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Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right...entrenched on the right as a member of the Establishment, proudly tattooed member of the Republican Party, bartender by trade serving both sides the libations needed to continue the debate and discourse. College student, ten years late, majoring in Public Policy and Administration with an eye to serving the conservative and Republican movement in the public or private sector. ducit amor patriae You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com. You can find D.J.on facebook, Twitter, or contact via email at gosport.conservative@gmail.com.
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Comments
3 Responses to "Unheard of Polling Firm Gives Dems False Hope"
I wonder how long it will be before DEMS begin to quote the “polls” conducted on Henry Ryto’s “Avenging Archangel” blog? I suspect such a “poll” would be reported by henry as having 68% support Deeds and 32% McDonnell . . .
This means that no matter how high turnout is, McDonnell still wins. So much for the “Obama voter” Deeds has been hoping to turn out. Still isn’t enough.
The VP’s Politics Blog has a post up, lauding the accuracy and reliability of this poll, while also failing to mention it’s RV rather than LV. Also makes the mistake the left is making by comparing this poll to the others using LV, in a truly apples to oranges situation. It’s deplorable that in an 8 sentence post, 2 of the sentences are spent trying to convince the reader how accurate this poll most be in comparison to those others, ‘less reliable’ polls.
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