House Update: Amiral tied with Miller in 87th; Comstock, Hugo, Scalley, McConville, Hyland updates
By JR Hoeft | Monday, September 7th, 2009 | Politics
Del. Paula Miller, who has spent nearly 1 million dollars over the past five years on her campaigns (see her profile and her committee’s profile on VPAP), finds herself in a statistical tie 34-34% with 32% undecided with her challenger, John Amiral.
“As an incumbent who has spent such an enormous amount and still has 32 percent of the voters undecided, her effectiveness in serving the people of the 87th can be called into question,” says the Amiral campaign.
This ineffectiveness was on display yet again during a recent debate in the district.
Amiral proposed during the debate that the first $30,000 of teacher pay be tax free to which Miller quipped that it was “unwanted and unnecessary.”
Of course, Miller should know all about “unwanted and unnecessary.”
Miller now has a sweet deal with the Norfolk Sheriff’s office, where, apparently, there’s little work for an attorney, but more than enough for two spokeswomen.
Of course, she probably doesn’t concern herself anymore with the financial struggles of public school teachers. Especially since her child is now old enough to drive herself to private school.
Miller also couldn’t find it within herself to help the local chapter of Friends of the Elderly who were seeking assistance – government or financial – to prevent some mature renters from being evicted from their home. Needing $2200 to prevent the eviction, the group was rebuffed by both Rep. Glenn Nye and new Norfolk city employee Miller.
Amiral, between personal finances and friends, was able to come up with a donation and prevent the eviction.
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What high-visibility Republicans haven’t supported Barbara Comstock (34th)? Over the summer, Comstock has had Liz Cheney, Mary Matalin, Newt Gingrich, Karl Rove, and Mitt Romney all campaign for her.
She also has been knocking on hundreds of doors and is receiving very positive feedback from the voters in Vance Wilkins Vince Callahan’s former district.
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Jay McConville (44th) recently released his environmental plan to address the damage caused by neglect to Route 1 and the surrounding Potomac River watershed. According to a press release:
Jay is calling for a community effort: environmental leaders, business leaders, and the Virginia Department of Transportation, as well as local, state, and federal officials regardless of party. Jay believes that only by bringing everybody to the table can we achieve real results.
Jay’s plan would make the redevelopment and revitalization of the Route 1 corridor the number one priority of Fairfax County and a major priority of the state. Roadway improvements will prevent further damage to the Potomac River watershed and the Chesapeake Bay, and help stimulate new development along this declining commercial corridor.
Simple solutions like water capture facilities would help stem the run-off and clean the water, and slow the torrents that cut into our landscape. At the same time, Jay would lead a “Citizen’s Call to Action” to stimulate community volunteers and businesses to help clean up these at risk areas.
Jay would also introduce legislation to create a “Clean Business” program, modeled after the successful Recycling, Green Energy and Environmental Restoration Site programs, that would bring businesses into the conversation of environmental improvements and provide tax incentives for environmentally-friendly development in at-risk areas like Mt. Vernon.
Finally, Jay would initiate community-wide education programs to curtail illegal dumping and increase public awareness about how to address waste and run-off water.
The Mt. Vernon region, particularly near the Belle Haven and Paul Spring Branches, suffers from being among the greatest percentage of impervious surfaces and poorest quality of streams due to run-off in Fairfax County.
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Del. Tim Hugo (40th) has been endorsed by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR), and the Virginia Association of Realtors.
“This endorsement is particularly meaningful to me, considering my opponent is a Northern Virginia realtor”, stated Delegate Hugo. “I look forward to working with the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors and the Virginia Association of Realtors in the future”.
Hugo also has been endorsed by the VEA and the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce.
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Jim Hyland (35th) also received the nod from the NVAR.
“The housing sector of our economy has proven to be an incredibly important one, and it is exciting and reassuring to know that the realtors believe my knowledge and experience in housing policy will serve the district best,” said Hyland.
In the most recent poll in this campaign to fill the vacated seat of Democrat Steve Shannon, Hyland has a 7-point lead.
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And, in the 100th, Melody Scalley just completed campaigning with George and Susan Allen at a series of events on the Eastern Shore this weekend, but, more importantly, has been attending Townhalls, hosting rallies, and getting the word out about her campaign and commonsense conservative approach to government.
“In a recent letter to his supporters, my opponent stressed how important it is that he is reelected so the Democrats have control during the next session because, “the Virginia House of Delegates is only six seats away from Democratic control, in this, the last election before redistricting,’” said Scalley. “He has been happy to play the “middle of the road” line to the paper for fear of losing the Independent voters. But make no mistake, he will be quick to further the party agenda of bigger government, more government regulation and higher taxes that come with Democratic control.”
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(Update) And, in the 51st, Rich Anderson has been endorsed by AgPAC: The Virginia Farm Bureau.
“As a boy, I spent many summers working on my cousin’s dairy farm in Southwest Virginia. It was there that I learned to value our environment and to be a good steward of the land,” said Anderson. “As the next Delegate from the 51st District I will stand up for property rights, help ensure that we have a stable and clean food supply and work to keep taxes low. Just like I am committed to our small businesses, I am committed to our family farms as engines of economic growth.”
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(Update) Finally, Ernesto Sampson tells us that he has knocked on 11,000 doors in the 69th.
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About the author
Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
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13 Responses to "House Update: Amiral tied with Miller in 87th; Comstock, Hugo, Scalley, McConville, Hyland updates"
John Amiral’s campaign is struggling to get any momentum because people in the 87th House District are starting to realize there is something a little weird about him.
His polling as no statistical significance. It was an automated poll, which stated that one should press 1 if they are voting for John Amiral, 2 if they are voting for Paula Miller or 3 if they were undecided. These results mean nothing as it relies only on those people who answer their phone. It did not ask their political beliefs were. So if more Republicans answered the phone that night, obviously it would show better for him than Paula Miller. Also, why should we trust any polling done by the candidate himself?
How about the two minute robo message he left on people’s answering machines, in which he has a hard time pronouncing common English words. When did John Amiral become an expert on America’s Public Schools? I believe that he attended school in Turkey and didn’t even become a US Citizen until 2001. Maybe all of the Turkish PAC money he is receiving will help him guide his policies on American Education.
Now John Amiral wants to give tax breaks on the first $30,000 for teachers and first responders (according to his phone message). While this would be wonderful, how many millions of dollars will Virginia lose and cause more fiscal problems? Seriously – this legislation wouldn’t even make it out of committee.
Has anyone asked why John Amiral can’t keep campaign managers? How about the fact that his campaign manager has never run a campaign before and has been seen at quite a few Democratic events. In fact, his campaign manager was a huge Obama supporter last year.
I love the story about Paula Miller and Glenn Nye not giving to “Local Friends of the Elderly”. This is what really happen – John Amiral came up to them and challenged them to match his donation of $700 to two random people who came off of the street. They didn’t look elderly to me. I don’t know about you, but I wouldn’t randomly give $700 to people off the street. There are plenty of organizations such as United Way that make sure money is given the right way.
This guy is a joke and when November comes, he will be lucky to get 30% of the vote.
Wow. That’s a mighty long refutation for someone who isn’t worried.
J.R. Hoeft,
I don’t think that posting the truth and giving additional information means that Norfolk Democrats are worried about this race. I just wanted to make sure that you and other readers (Democrat or Republican) can see what a fantasy land John Amiral and his campaign are living in. Although I trust that your blog will share accurate information, I know that you sometimes rely on the information that campaigns provide. Since you do not live in Norfolk or the 87th House District, you might be missing some of the real information and discussions happening. You were not at the first debate. In fact if you were, you probably would have been appalled with the language Mr. Amiral used. What disrespect to the citizens in that room when he used “piss” and “sucks” at a public forum.
You are a smart guy and I would hope that even you can see that there is no validity to this poll. But if you want to live in the same dream world as Mr. Amiral, please keep on promoting a lost cause and I will keep on letting you know the other side of the story.
Ummm…Barbara Comstock is not running in Vance Wilkins’ old district (the 24th, which is in Amherst, Augusta, Rockbridge, Buena Vista and Lexington, and is now held by Republican Delegate Ben Cline). She is actually running in Vince Callahan’s old seat in Fairfax…
Crap. You’re right. Vance, Vince…same difference.
Sorry. I typed without fact-checking that one.
I demonstrate once again that my knowledge of politics outside of Hampton Roads is only a couple years deep.
ORFDem,
John had a rough start. That comes with being relatively new to the political scene. His campaign staff is considerably more stable now, which in turn boosts his credibility as a candidate. If Amiral’s manager is the guy I think it is, he’s apparently good enough to have planned some successful events for McDonnell over this past weekend.
As a former Sailor-like John-I don’t mind a politician who calls things as they are. If they “suck,” so be it…I’ll take that over window dressing any day.
And since I know you’re interested in providing accurate information, I trust that you and other ORF Dems have a good explanation for Del. Miller’s and Sheriff McCabe’s signs being placed together (and before you ask, they’re up the street from my place in the 87th). Appearance of impropriety-him being her new boss now-or smart campaigning?
Please, enlighten us.
You guys need to cover the GA races more often; this post is almost as entertaining as the Virginia Oddsmaker’s 2007 coverage.
Speaking of which – Kenney, whatever happened to that site? Beyond being hilariously wrong every prediction you made, I mean?
As the one who analyzed the poll results for the Amiral Campaign, I can say with certainty that the results are not meaningless. I painstakingly compared the information on those who responded and found that they were statistically similar to the available demographics of the district to within 4%. Geographic density was comparable to known voter populations in the districts precincts. Based on our party ID numbers the people who responded to the poll represented an astoundingly accurate makeup of the actual district.
Post the demographics, sampling methodology, and question wording and the name of the polling firm so you can give this some credibility “pollster.”
We, the John Amiral for delegate team, are very proud of the campaign we are running. Regardless of the fact whether I (Marcus Calabrese) had a “Campaign Manager” title before or not, I have extensive public service experience and great communication skills that are greatly valued by Mr. Amiral.
Meantime, I was a witness when the situation with Friends of The Elderly took place.
I am amazed that Paula Miller is trying to characterize Mr. Amiral’s help to Elderly and Disabled in a negative manner. John Amiral invited Delegate Miller to assist an organization she acknowledged being aware of. Upon meeting the gentleman, Paula Miller smiled and stated her familiarity with him and the organization he represents. She is absolutely right that both of them did not look elderly. That would be because one of them was the gentleman’s eighteen-year old disabled son. Unlike Paula Miller and many other politicians that I have seen, John will continue helping elderly and disabled people, regardless of the organization they represent.
Also, Congressman Nye had a separate encounter and was never brought up by John Amiral, they were in two totally different parts of the building. Do I wish Glenn had taken a moment to see if he could help as a public servant, absolutely, however he and John Amiral have had no encounters nor did Mr. Amiral include the Congressman by name, title, or implication in that nights discussion in any way whatsoever.
My disappointment comes in when someone considers that Delegate Miller has yet to follow up with the organization to see if she can help. With a salary as a delegate and her salary in the Sheriff’s office, it was not necessary that she helped as a DELEGATE MILLER or a representative of the Sheriff’s office, but she could have helped as Paula Miller, the concerned citizen that stated her familiarity with the organization. To this day, there has been no contact between her office and the organization. There were no follow up calls, no visits, no correspondence to ensure the situation had been improved. For the record, it has been improved!
Please help me to understand how John is being questioned for giving talented youth a chance by working on his campaign. John Amiral is a bipartisan candidate, and will never stop helping people, simply because he enjoys helping people. He will hire any talented youth to work in his campaign, republican or democrat, based on prospect’s talent.
John is the type of candidate that proudly and unashamedly places the interests of people before politics. I sat here this morning and listened to him make phone calls on behalf of someone who is in need. Might I add, she is a democrat, I wonder why she didn’t call Paula?
People know very well, and they will remember that Mr. Amiral made a commitment as the only veteran and a businessperson in this race to represent the issues facing the district at a time when our country needs talented, patriotic, and dedicated leaders the most.
Finally, in John we have a candidate who will remain committed to people and to the same values now and after the elections.
Our poll was conducted by CDYNE Corporation. We had provided them with the list of all registered voters phone numbers for the district provided by Voter Vault. 551 likely voters responded to the poll, 34% for John Amiral, 34% for Paula Miller, and 32% were undecided.
Of those who responded to the poll, according to our data;
269 were Republicans (48%)
243 were Democrats (44%)
39 were Independent (7%)
According to our voter data the makeup of likely voters in the district is 49% Republican, 41% Democrat, and 10% independent. Our sample was roughly 10% of voting house holds, geographic distribution compared astoundingly to population density maps of the area.
In the meantime, if you or anyone has any other concerns about the results of the poll, John Amiral has indicated that he is willing to cosponsor another poll with Paula Miller campaign. We can jointly design the questions. We would also jointly prepare the list of likely voters. This would be the best way to address any concerns for those who are really worried about the previous poll.
Please let us know if the Paula Miller campaign is up for a little challenge.
[...] of the environment, Jay published a letter to the editor that appeared in the Fairfax Times, and Bearing Drift picks up on a press release with Jay’s plan for improvement in Mt. Vernon. Hat tip to Chris, who had these videos before [...]
[...] House Update: Amiral tied with Miller in 87th; Comstock, Hugo, Scalley, McConville, Hyland updates (BearingDrift.com) [...]
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