The progressives of Virginia all received a stunning blow on Tuesday when Creigh Deeds walked away with a double-digit victory in the Democratic Primary. Democrats in Virginia, who had been enjoying a trend of multiple recent victories in the Commonwealth were left scratching their heads as to why the most conservative of the candidates was the winner.
The fact of Deeds’ moderate policies will work both for and against him in the upcoming campaign. Conventional wisdom says that independents and swing voters are more likely to vote for a moderate candidate than one of more extreme views. But Bob McDonnell is hardly an extremist himself. Conservative, yes, but nothing that would turn away the undecided voter.
Both candidates will have funds dumped in their coffers from all over the country, likely in levels previously unseen in non-Presidential years. The eyes of the nation are on Virginia when there is little else going on politically, and Virginia politics are often a predictor of national trends. Watch for the money to come rolling in.
So what will distinguish the two candidates in the end? Both reasonably appealing to undecided voters. Both well-funded. In the end, it will come down to the ground game. How will each candidate do, reaching out at the grassroots level.
Bob has always had the ability to fire up the base, where the grassroots volunteers are found. His party is excited to back him as one of the most viable candidates they’ve had in years. He’s been working on his ground game across the Commonwealth, and in fact never stopped since the last time he met Creigh in the race for Attorney General.
Does Creigh have what it takes to fire up the Democratic base? Is he left-leaning enough for them to get excited about him and come out in droves to support him? Creigh is a nice guy. He has decent values. But will he be able to galvanize the grassroots to make the difference in what may prove to be a very close race? Will he have to depart from his moderate values and paint himself as more liberal and progressive in order to keep his base interested?
Only time will tell if Deeds will have the support he needs to make himself competitive.
