Watch the returns at the SBE website.
Jason Kenney is tweeting.
7:40 PM: Given how NoVA is coming in, I don’t see how Deeds can lose. BD calls Deeds, as we have predicted all day, the winner. Wagner also wins in a walk.
Update 7:30 PM: This can’t be good news for McAuliffe in Alexandria with 7 of 27 precincts reporting…
Terry R. McAuliffe 412 13.33%
Brian J. Moran 1,659 53.70%
R. Creigh Deeds 1,018 32.95%
Update 7:21 PM: Dr. Quentin Kidd had some interesting thoughts on the race:
“Was the McAuliffe campaign a house of cards?” Quidd mused. “Was it a media creation, or was it real? You’ve got to win trust and build relationships in a campaign, and I’m not sure you can do that from the air, which is what McAuliffe has tried to do.”
Update 7:10 PM: You are probably all eager to know who I voted for, given my post last evening. As I mentioned in the comment thread, it was sarcasm with a hoped effect on Democratic voters. I did not vote.
Deeds has a commanding early lead of 67% to 19% with 1% of precincts reporting. Should I call it?
Update 6:15 PM: Turnout models all point to a big Deeds win. However, the McAuliffe campaign is putting a good spin on this, still encouraging voters to get to the polls at the last minute. Mike Henry, T-Mac’s campaign manager writes:
“We’ve gotten some preliminary information back about what turnout is looking like, and this thing could come down to the wire. There is a very good chance we’ll be re-tabulating votes tomorrow morning…. Surge voters – people who voted in the 2008 Presidential Primary, but had never before voted in a primary – are showing up….Surge voters could comprise over 40% of the electorate – and that’s great news for Terry. Since day one, we’ve focused on re-engaging all the people who were drawn into the political process last year. That could pay off big time tonight.”
*****
Virginia Virtucon is reporting that Chairman Terry McAuliffe has called private donors to state that he is not going to win today.
According to the post, McAuliffe is telling donors thank you but that his campaign will lose today, saying:
“I can’t believe I wasted all this money for nothing — this was supposed to be a slam dunk! Have you seen the clowns Virginians have elected lately — Mark Warner? Tim Kaine? Jim Webb? PUH-LEEZE! They’re nothing compared to the T-MAC!”
Given the fact that turnout is not expected to break 5%, as is the historical average (save for one giant blip last year), this shouldn’t be unexpected for the outside candidacy of McAuliffe.
In 2001, the primary generated 4% interest; in 2005, the very competitive LG race yielded 2.7%; and, in 2006, the race between Harris Miller and Jim Webb, which Democrats frequently discuss as a hallmark for Democratic activism, brought forward 3.6%.
The blips are in 2004, where the presidential primary had a 10% turnout and the 2008 primary had 21.5%.
Apparently Chairman McAuliffe is no Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
In related news, the favorite, Sen. Creigh Deeds, received three vital Senate endorsements yesterday from key regions in Virginia: State Senator Toddy Puller in Northern Virginia, State Senator Donald McEachin in Richmond, and Senator John Miller in Hampton Roads, further solidifying his position as the choice of Democratic leadership.
Will we have a rematch of 2005 between McDonnell and Deeds? All signs point to “yes.”
Watch for Democratic updates from Anonymous is a Woman, Blue Virginia, Blue Commonwealth, New Dominion. and Vivian Paige.
The Washington Post, Decision Virginia, and Northern Virginia Daily are also doing a stellar job from the perspective of media coverage.
