Riley has the post. He thinks that within a few years, the GOP will take a U.S. Senate and House seat, plus the governor’s mansion in NY.
Color me skeptical.
But, if it happens, I will take Riley to dinner.
Never rule out the ability of either party in New York to shoot themselves in the foot. The factional tribalism up there is enough to make one’s head spin.
I was surprised that it was a Blue Dog Democrat selected. Pleasantly surprised.
Oops, I guess I should have included “selected to replace Hillary in the Senate” in my comment.
One problem with the post: Cuomo has said he will not challenge Gov. Dave in a primary. I tend to believe he will not change his mind.
Still, I think Gov. Dave might have some trouble getting elected governor. After making a good impression on the voters of NY when he took over, he shot himself in the foot with all his new tax ideas.
But who knows? Gov. Dave has appointed a moderate woman from upstate NY with ties to the White House, Cuomo and even Bruno to replace Hillary. Smart political move. May have pissed off some Dems, but he impressed a lot of upstate more conservative voters by appointing someone to the right of Hillary. NYC will not vote for a Republican over a blind, black Democrat no matter how much he pisses off members of his own party. All Gov. Dave needs is to not lose horribly upstate to win.
Giulani, c’mon. He was going to run against Hillary, but backed out. He ran a dismal campaign for President. Guy can govern and give good speeches, but I don’t trust him to run for governor or to run a good campaign.
I think the Republicans best bet in NY is the current recession, fiscal crisis and the fact the Dems control the gov’t. in NY. How the Dems handle the next few years will determine if the GOP resurges or not. As much as I think the Dems will fail to govern well, I don’t underestimate Gov. Dave. The guy is crazy like a fox. He might actually do what Obama claims he will do and find ways to work with Dems and the GOP to actually find answers If that turns out to be the case, the best the GOP can hope for is to regain the state senate.
As a former New Yorker, I’ll agree with Duck’s analysis and your skepticism Jim. I think if the Democrats have enough internecine fighting, a Republican in one of the races might slip through – probably Peter King, who is a moderate with lots of blue collar support. He could even count on some union support in a Senate race and he’s an enormously popular pol, who frustrates both liberal Democrats and the Republican establishment with his independence.
Dare I say it: He’s a maverick . Seriously, he only votes with the Republicans 83 percent of the time and usually veers off on issues like supporting minimum wage and SCHIP. But he’s strongly pro-Iraq, voted with Republicans on FISA, and is ardently pro-life, etc.
FWIW, I’ve met the man (at a union event) and even when I disagreed with him, I liked him. He’d be deeply amused and proud to be characterized as a “charming Irishman” (his fervent support of Sinn Fein and the Provisional IRA in the 1990s, also annoyed the establishment but played very well in his Irish Catholic congressional district).
But I just don’t see the type of Republican sweep Riley is hoping for. Especially since, as Duck pointed out, Giuliani has baggage. He was a competent mayor but his abrasiveness is alienating, especially once you get out of NYC. His personal family dramas have hurt him and offended upstate voters just as much as they did conservative voters elsewhere in the country. Giuliani is a social liberal (pro abortion and in favor of gay rights), which also hurts him upstate. And in a gubernatorial race, his supposed national security credentials won’t help him much. The place they would have mattered was in a federal race like the one for president. So, if they didn’t give him the victory there, they become less relevant to a race for the Governor’s Mansion.
And nobody wants to risk his wife locking him out of the Governor’s Mansion, as his former wife, Donna Hanover did when she threw him out of Gracie Mansion and he had to live with a gay couple and visit his mistress, now his wife (see what I mean about “baggage”)
It’s hard for me to predict NY anymore (I’ve been gone 27 years) but I think Riley is being over optimistic about GOP prospects there. A King pick up is feasible. A Giuliani win would be a longshot. Not all of New York is like NYC. Upstaters are both polite and more socially conservative, so an abrasive social liberal like Giuliani would turn them off and allow a Democrat to win again.