2009 Predictions Thread

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As we do every year at Bearing Drift, we try to look into the future. Thankfully, for J.R.’s sake, he lost all previous predictions in the transition to the new site!

That being said, that’s not going to stop us from continuing the tradition!

This is an open-thread, so any predictions you’d like to add are fair game. Here are mine for 2009:

Bill Bolling wins the LG nomination, barely, after the same people who helped Bob Marshall help Muldoon, and Bolling has to drain his treasury just to get the nomination. Maybe the Muldoon people genuinely think they are doing something good for the Commonwealth of Virginia. Everyone else can see that they are only doing good for Terry McAuliffe’s campaign war chest (by reducing Bolling/McDonnell resources). Cuccinelli wins the AG nomination handily. He will overestimate his appeal because of this.

I like McDonnell and Bolling, but I give the McDonnell-Bolling-Cuccinelli team a no more than even chance of winning in November 2009, due to several things:

1. Obscene amounts of money will be given to McAuliffe – he will own the air war.

2. The media are too busy swimming intoxicated in their lovely warm Obama trance to do their job, and I don’t see this changing any time soon. Although, I will make this surprising prediction – Jeff Schapiro will shake it off first and will actually do some good reporting. He’s smart and can read the red-ink writing on the Media General wall. He knows he will be helping himself if he brings his “A” game to the reporting of this election. Let’s hope. Because this paragraph can’t handle one more metaphor. Okay, I guess it could.

3. Cuccinelli will say something that somehow goes too far (it might not actually be too bad, but it will fall into the hands of eager oppo-spinners and will be spun to be outrageous); he will do this several
times during the campaign, upstaging Bob McDonnell and causing the campaign as a whole to go into defense mode, wasting precious time and more-precious campaign funds. McAuliffe’s well-funded media team will play these incidents like a violin. Related: McDonnell will one day say something perfectly reasonable that gets misquoted, widely, to make him sound bad. He will have to spend time fighting this, too. Unfair, but there it is.

4. 527s, some funded by Ron-Paul-friendly sources, will make and air ads in Virginia that will be meant to help the Republican team but which will manage to outrage practically everyone, nationally. It will
be something worse than the Kilgore “death penalty” ad. Much, much worse. If the GOP leadership (especially McDonnell and Bolling) condemns it VERY strongly, VERY quickly, and repeatedly, then there is a chance that they can make sure that the public knows that those are not GOP ideas. This will be made more difficult by the press, as usual, which is maddening, as they should be using their journalistic resources to do what Deep Throat told Woodward and Bernstein – “Follow the money,” this time on the 527s. Instead most of the media will be gossiping about trivia.

Meanwhile, Libertarians will claim to be the real Conservatives. They will continue to promulgate their ideas, assuming that if they Could * Just * Get * Their * Message * Out, more people would like them. They are wrong on both counts, which they will continue to not “get.” (Don’t believe me? You may see proof in the comment section here…).

As for the 2009 Session: citizens will again be shaking our heads in disbelief as we see the lugubrious legislators intoning for any available TV camera or microphone that they are so “Concerned” about
the “Serious Issues facing us”… while their actions will look like “business as usual” (except with more calls to reduce spending). Yeah, yeah, I know, I really went out on a limb with that prediction.

POLITICAL TECH PREDICTIONS FOR 2009

Jeff Frederick will retain his job and will redesign the RPV website, again, and both he and the website will continue not setting the world on fire.

Dirty tricks will be played with Twitter and Facebook. Both sides will try it. The one to get caught first will take much more blame. Unless it’s the Democrats. Anything they do is perfectly justifiable.

There will be some kind of unholy convergence between robo-calls and Facebook. On the Dem side, someone will be smart enough to tie this in to the iPhone, too. Maybe an iPhone app for operatives that will allow the iPhone to import numbers from the address book and push out robo-calls? .

On the other hand, it could happen that someone will have his Twitter feed go to his Facebook page, which feed will be picked up by his blog, which will tweet his Twitter acount, and so on, dragging
Facebook and Twitter into a catastrophic mutual DOS attack. It could bring down the whole Internet, or at least the social-networking side of it, for what might be a blissfully quiet few hours.

Final prediction: at least one wildly unexpected and huge event will occur to make all of these predictions, even if true, pretty much irrelevant. I don’t know what that event might be. If I knew that, I’d be rich.


About the Author

Jane Dudley has enjoyed conservatism and photography for over 30 years. After looking around at the mediocre state of affairs of political photography as it exists on the right, she decided to start making better images, to document Virginia Republicans and to inspire them to make more of an effort to put a fine face on their fine ideas. She is a graduate of the University of Virginia and works in new media.