Virginia GOP: Rebuild Or Stop The Bleeding?
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Thinking of the GOP on the state level we have two immediate options on the table (and a bunch more within those, but those are shades). We are faced with whether the state GOP needs to rebuild or merely stop the bleeding for now. Nationally they can look at two to four year plans and the tin cup pundits and specialists are going to focus on that but we have an election next year that will hugely impact where Virginia goes for the next ten years thanks to redistricting.
Rebuilding in the long term is a must do option. The party as it stands now within Virginia as well as the nation is not one that will beat the path to victory in the future. But can it hold the fort so there is a chance of fighting back?
People may say that fighting for a House of Delegates majority next year is all well and good but what kind of majority are we talking about? Certainly a majority that is raising our taxes is not a majority any of us want to see, but if it’s a Republican majority that can then help craft districts that still give Republicans a chance and a seat at the table then the party has a chance to rebuild and reassert its values later, in a position to also maintain a majority when doing so. If it’s a Democratic majority that starts crafting Democratic districts to lock us out, we may be facing a Blue Virginia from a state to national level for at least the next ten years.
If we focus on rebuilding now, focus on shedding our own squishes while finding solid candidates to field in blue districts, can we successfully hold the House of Delegates in 2009 or are we setting ourselves up for an even bigger loss?
While the party needs to definitely figure itself out and perhaps needs a change throughout, should our immediate focus be more on doing what we can to make it not nearly as bad as it will be?
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The key is to address the rising tide of “Republicrats” throughout the Commonwealth and determine why it is they are splitting tickets down ballot. Thsi is the only explaination why it is some Republican Congressional seats were held is areas where Obama outperformed, or why it is the difference b/t Obama and McCain was considerably narrower than Warner/Gilmore. These voters need to be addressed if the GOP is to ove forward; the key is they are moderates and not social conservatives.
“the key is they are moderates and not social conservatives.”
Exactly. Ditch the SoCon element and the Republican Party can rise again. Keep them at the table and WYSIWYG.
Hoobie hit the nail on the head. For Republicans to compete, they are going to need to be social moderates with a clear fiscal message while putting efficient/transparent government and a clear fiscal message in the the forefront.
McCain had it right with Straight Talk. It derailed because he was forced to be someone he wasn’t, obliterating the concept that what he was saying was straight talk at all.
Essentially, the party needs to be more about the government and less about people’s lives. Get the emotional buy in of voters based on the strength of the candidate and their vision for the direction of the nation, not the social issues that fire up the conservative (evangelical) so-called base of the party.
I don’t think the social issues need to be moderated necessarily so much as the Party needs to understand that the long pole on the big tent is TAXES and all things that come with that (spending, size of government, welfare state, etc). From there you get your shades, but if we can not come together on the fiscal issues that do resonate then we lose.
Joel, I think Republicans would stay away from social issues if Democrats did.
How much do you want to bet it’s the Left who brings up social issues in the next 12 months?
Brian, of course they will and thats why in 2010 you can expect the GOP to pick up seats in the House. This always happens in the first off year election after a newly elected President. Its not overreaching, but simply the expectations are so high that often it is never reached. If I recall one of the only times this did not happen was 2002 and the GOP held its seats in the House. There is a lesson there if the GOP wants to learn from it. In my view, the Congress not so much Obama will stray off the reservation which will be the single ignition for reinvigurating the future of the GOP.
Rebuild? Stop the bleeding? 2010? Boys, you all may as well limp back to that RPV hillbilly hideaway, because that’s where you will call home for the foreseeable future. While you are wandering around in the wilderness you might finally realize that you gained power by standing up for the little guy. Then you crapped on them. Well, the little guy is going to continue to keep you caged in your outhouse because it will be a very cold day before they trust you again. Trust is a simple word, much like ‘change’. When you lose trust the final word is Change.
Brian,
Depends on the social issues. Are we talking welfare (which I tend to group with fiscal, but the line is fuzy), or are we talking sex education, gay rights, abortion, etc.?
For sure we’ll be focusing on welfare and social programs. We’ve done that throughout the election. We’ve focused on taxes too.
I think Virginians will be very interested, and will crave, a well defined fiscal message (well defined is more than spending freezes and tax cuts). If state GOP candidates can provide that, I think they stand a good chance at winning.
Joel - on the money. Brian, you honestly think that social conservatives in the Republican Party would just be silent on their issues, if Democrats only talked about fiscal concerns?
In other words, become something they aren’t now, and haven’t been for decades. This myth about Republicans and fiscal conservativism should be killed dead dead dead. Putting huge spending sprees on the credit card instead of trying to pay cash isn’t conservatism. But it sure is Republican.
To be fair, he wasn’t *forced* to do anything. McCain chose that path. He has no one to blame but himself. Turns out he’s one of the least principled candidates we’ve seen in a long time.