With many polls beginning to tighten, including here in Virginia, AP is now thinking that McCain can still win this thing…provided conservatives turnout.
The reality is that in places like New York, DC, Chicago, LA – of course turnout is going to be high for Obama…so he might win the popular vote. But Obama has to win the Electoral College…and in battlegrounds like Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Colorado, McCain is closing the gap quickly.
McCain has come out of nowhere before. Is history repeating itself?
Update: A few of us on Jeffersoniad have been discussing the potential violence that might ensue regardless of tomorrow’s election. However, I instigated things a little by suggesting that Obama will win the popular vote, but lose the electoral.
To this, Leslie Carbone chimed in and said:
“If Obama wins the popular and loses the electoral, there will be violence that makes the Rodney King riots look tame. If he loses both, then the violence will be King level. And if he wins, well, then, it’s just like Philly after the World Series.”
Which brings us the “Carbone Riot Scale”, as defined by Scott Hirons of Virginia Virtucon:
Home Team Sports Victory – duration – 1 night – size -25,000-100,000 – damage: Small fires, cars turned over, possible tear gas and rubber bullets used for crowd control, low risk of death
Below King Level – Duration more than 1 night less than 2 days – size 100,000-150,000 – damage: small fires possibly spreading to buildings, Cars destroyed, possible small arms fire by both rioters and police, death possible by participants.
King Level – Duration more than 2 days – size 150,000 – 300,000 -damage: fires destroy buildings, moving cars attacked and destroyed – occupants risk significant injury, small arms fire likely by both
rioters and police. Death is imminent by participants and possible by non-participants.Above King Level – Duration more than 1 week size 300,000 – damage: major destruction of many buildings, city seizure, small arms fire, expect many random shootings. Death is imminent for all in the
vicinity of riots.Detroit Burns Level – Duration forever size 1 Milion+ – damage: Detroit burns to the ground.
My money is on “Detroit Burns”, if we have a repeat of 2000. I’m not trying to be flip about this…but I wouldn’t be surprised.
I hope Obama, win or lose, is prepared to lead; forget within six months, Joe: he’ll be tested on Nov. 5.
