AP: “Anything can happen”
With many polls beginning to tighten, including here in Virginia, AP is now thinking that McCain can still win this thing…provided conservatives turnout.
The reality is that in places like New York, DC, Chicago, LA – of course turnout is going to be high for Obama…so he might win the popular vote. But Obama has to win the Electoral College…and in battlegrounds like Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Colorado, McCain is closing the gap quickly.
McCain has come out of nowhere before. Is history repeating itself?
Update: A few of us on Jeffersoniad have been discussing the potential violence that might ensue regardless of tomorrow’s election. However, I instigated things a little by suggesting that Obama will win the popular vote, but lose the electoral.
To this, Leslie Carbone chimed in and said:
“If Obama wins the popular and loses the electoral, there will be violence that makes the Rodney King riots look tame. If he loses both, then the violence will be King level. And if he wins, well, then, it’s just like Philly after the World Series.”
Which brings us the “Carbone Riot Scale”, as defined by Scott Hirons of Virginia Virtucon:
Home Team Sports Victory – duration – 1 night – size -25,000-100,000 – damage: Small fires, cars turned over, possible tear gas and rubber bullets used for crowd control, low risk of death
Below King Level – Duration more than 1 night less than 2 days – size 100,000-150,000 – damage: small fires possibly spreading to buildings, Cars destroyed, possible small arms fire by both rioters and police, death possible by participants.
King Level – Duration more than 2 days – size 150,000 – 300,000 -damage: fires destroy buildings, moving cars attacked and destroyed – occupants risk significant injury, small arms fire likely by both
rioters and police. Death is imminent by participants and possible by non-participants.Above King Level – Duration more than 1 week size 300,000 – damage: major destruction of many buildings, city seizure, small arms fire, expect many random shootings. Death is imminent for all in the
vicinity of riots.Detroit Burns Level – Duration forever size 1 Milion+ – damage: Detroit burns to the ground.
My money is on “Detroit Burns”, if we have a repeat of 2000. I’m not trying to be flip about this…but I wouldn’t be surprised.
I hope Obama, win or lose, is prepared to lead; forget within six months, Joe: he’ll be tested on Nov. 5.
Category: Campaigns and Elections
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current system does not reliably reflect the nationwide popular vote. The statewide winner-take-all rules makes it possible for a candidate to win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. This has occurred in one of every 14 presidential elections.
In the past six decades, there have been six presidential elections in which a shift of a relatively small number of votes in one or two states would have elected (and, of course, in 2000, did elect) a presidential candidate who lost the popular vote nationwide.
Nationwide popular election of the President is the only system that makes all states competitive, guarantees that the candidate with the most popular votes nationwide wins the Presidency, and makes every vote equal.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
National Popular Vote is about the most wrong idea I’ve heard since the last Obama speech.
We are 50 states, and the President should have to campaign in places besides California, Texas and New York, which is all that would happen in a popular vote election.
For those who consider most of America “flyover country,” the electoral college is an obstacle. Good!
[...] the eve of the election, with the race too close to call, Bearing Drift describes the “Carbone Riot Scale” in which various outcomes and resulting violence are [...]
The “Carbone Scale” of election reaction…
Hilarious! Well, no. It’s scary – and too possible – because America has moved away from the rule of Law and the disciplines of self-control and tolerance.God willing, whatever the results, rational minds will prevail over any possible mobs…….
So is this an argument to elect Obama from the Right?
I am counting on riots, either way.
As for “Nationwide popular election of the President is the only system that makes all states competitive” I agree with Brian. If there was a straigh popular vote, only a few states would matter. Of course Dems love it becuase thier states of California and NY would be the most important
As a California Native, I’m all for it.
The popular vote, not the riots….
On the other hand, if we had enough riots Obama could deploy the Civilian Security Force he want to build….
I view the EC the same way Churchill viewed democracy – it’s the worst system except all those others that have been tried from time to time(paraphrased).
Regarding any rioting, i’ll hope for the best but fear the worst.
If the Mac wins this thing, the Dems can thank all the MSM coverage of early voting. In this age of exit polls and downright guessing, nothing will scare the hell out of the other side than this early voting crap. It was bad enough that eastern results were being forecast before western polls had closed. Now voters have up to a week to read the coffee grounds before turning out to a defend against a perceived victory of the opponent.
Please…. The only people to blame if Obama wins is the GOP (who had no real plan) and John McCain who spent a majority of his time attacking Obama and not explaining what he’s do to make America better.
All I heard during this entire campaign was McCain saying he had a plan for every woe, but not once did he explain what his plans were.
“I hope Obama, win or lose, is prepared to lead; forget within six months, Joe: he’ll be tested on Nov. 5.” This has got to be the most politically correct way either saying 1- Obama could be killed with Joe Biden taking over 2- found ineligible under the citizenship clause or 3- Joe the Plumber better watch his butt crack after the election.