My (optimistic) Prediction As Of Oct 29
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Published October 29th, 2008
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19 Responses to “My (optimistic) Prediction As Of Oct 29”
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Yup, that sure is an optimistic forecast.
Of course if the Wilder/Bradley effect comes into play we might start calling you a prophet.
Which states do you specifically disagree with?
How about Pennsylvania?
Seems to me McCain is depending on racism to win him quite a few states. He’s even depending on it to make him competitive in Pennsylvania.
My guess is that while he is not wrong to mine Pennsylvania, his attempts due to a number of factors are going to come up for naught. John McCain has a bigger problem then Pennsylvania alone.
Or we could see a tie.
“Seems to me McCain is depending on racism to win him quite a few states. He’s even depending on it to make him competitive in Pennsylvania.”
Instead of making an intellectual argument about Penn, you drop the race card. Notice how only the Dems (Murtha in particular) seem to be focused on Race.
TRUST ME, if McCain wanted to count on racism, he would be talking about Rev. Wright, but he is not because he KNOWS that would be seen as a racial move.
A tie. Ugh! That would be painful. That gives a win to Obama, doens’t it, since the new Congress is mostly Dem (Each state gets one vote and each states Congressional delegates vote on how to cast it)
There is no way McCain can take New Hampshire. Sorry B, McCain is done. Even with your optomism, the best McCain can hope for is a 270-268 loss.
I think it is far more likely that we will see an Obama landslide because of all the early voting/ the sheer number of voters.
Thankfully too, I just can simply not imagine risking our nation on even the possibility that Palin could be elevated to the Presidency. She may be a fine Governor, but as the Achorage Daily New wrote, the VP job is beyond her range.
Squaeky,
There is nothing to prevent John from attempting to benefit from his race without outwardly attempting to play the card.
If he overtly plays it, he alienates moderates. But there is nothing to prevent him from passively benefiting from it. The Wilder/Bradley effect is real. The effect earned it’s identification from real world elections.
I guess I should have pointed out that I do not think that Squeaky’s prognostication is that out of line. Not if the Wilder/Bradley effect is taken into account. However the extreme difference in Pennsylvania will be difficult to overcome even with the effect. However that is where McCain seems to be placing all of his chips and hoping for the effect to make up the differences elsewhere.
Mark,
John can’t win New Hampshire? Even though every attempt he made for the presidency was launched from New Hampshire? Seems New Hampshire has a certain fondness for John.
John probably stretched this fondness beyond limits with the selection of Sarah. But it is not too much irrational to expect the Wilder/Bradley effect to be true even there. From personal experience I think it might be even more true there then elsewhere.
I find it absurd when liberals like Mark say that Palin is not ready to be President, as if Barack Obama has all of this executive experience to bring to the Presidency. Oh, I forgot, he was a community organizer, sorry. You’re right, someone like that should recognize that the Presidency is “beyond their range.”
Anyone that thinks this election is going to be an Obama “landslide” has drank a little too much Kool Aid.
Jesse.
You’re right.
The reason they should object to Sarah is because she objects to the use of birth control. Most of us use it. She doesn’t.
Do you really want to take the chance you will end up with a 9 months pregnant CinC?
Jesse - Open your mind, it has nothing to do with the job she has had - what exceptionalism or intellecutual curiousity has she demonstrated? Heck it took her 6 years and 5 colleges just to graduate and she has been censured by a GOP controlled legislature for unethical behavior.
She is the worst kid of politician, one who is clearly out of her depth and will put this country at risk. I’ll add something else too, as a military reservist her flippant comments about going to war with Russia and Iran scare the hell out of me. I have no problem fighting when called, but don’t send me to some war just becuase you don’t understand the situation or have something to prove.
Conversely Obama over two years of daily vetting has demonstrated intellectualism and intellectual curiousity, he has a desire to learn and understand evident from his thoughtful analysis and books authored without the assistance of a ghost writer. He has the mettle to be President - as far as the experience thing goes, sorry experience only carries you so far, at the end of the day it is who you are that determines whether you will be an exceptional President or not. Lincoln had little experience - but, he was intelligent and earnest in his quest for knowledge, Buchannan on the other hand was incredibly experienced having held a variety of posts and without a doubt was one of our worst presidents because he lacked the character that Lincoln had in spades.
Little D -
Agree with you on McCain in NH, but that was a GOP primary.
Funny thing is, in 2000 I supported McCain. He was a maverick then, if he would have remained McCain ver 2000 I think he would be on his way to the Presidency today with Gov. Ridge as his VP.
As others have said, that’s some serious Bradley Effect there SW (though as a proud Virginian I should say Wilder Effect).
Recent polling averages show Obama ahead in PA, OH, IN, NC, FL, and NH. MT, ND, and MO are tossups. And you put all of those in the McCain column?
So those are your arguments? So thin, I can see right through them. OH NOES she didn’t go to an Ivy League school, automatic disqualification!!!
Please. She has never said that she would ban birth control. I would say that you could do better in your arguments, but you can’t, so I won’t.
The only candidates “out of their depth” in this election are Obama & Biden.
You contradict yourself by saying that Palin doesn’t have experience, so she’s not qualified… but then turn around and say that Obama is ready because he has an “intelligence” and “thirst for knowledge” (even though he doesn’t have experience). So you’re comparing Obama to Lincoln? Wow, your ignorance in those statements are just breathtaking.
Really, the worst kind of politician is the one that talks out of both sides of their mouth, which Obama & Biden have thoroughly demonstrated through their candidacy. They will talk about tax cuts to get the votes of those that already do not pay taxes, and then turn around and talk about taking more money (those that already fork over half of their income to the government in taxes) to “spread the wealth” around. That is just one of many examples.
But none of this matters to you; you’ve already made your choice, as I have already made mine, so we could do this until the cows come home, and it would be a waste of our time.
Either way, it’s going to be another close election, so don’t get your hopes up for a landslide.
Jesse,
Palin does not use birth control herself. She got pregnant and gave birth while serving as Governor of Alaska.
Even McCain’s own folks are condemning Palin as a power hungry diva. Not to mention the fact that the GOP controlled legislature of Alaska found that she has violated ethics rules and abused power - and what about her taxpayer funded family vacations? Or, what about her collecting per diem from the taxpayers while living at home?
Get with it, who cares where she went to school - it’s all about who she is - and she is not the kind of exceptional American we should elevate to power. McCain’s advisors are right, she is a dangerous diva. If you care about this country’s future you’ll vote to keep her as far from power as possible.
I agree with everything Mark on has said. And Little David, as much as I’m not a Sarah Palin fan, who cares if she had a baby? She may just like having children. At any rate, that’s her personal choice and it’s nobody’s business.
Even the most pro-choice woman might choose to have a baby, yes, even one with Down’s Syndrome. A political decision is not the same thing as a personal decision. I respect Palin’s personal decision in this matter and so should you.