As we approach the final weeks of this campaign, there are a few things to remember besides Barack Obama’s voodoo economics of giving almost everyone a tax cut while paying for everyone’s health care and increasing government spending while balancing the budget by the light of the silvery moon.
And that is there are a lot of things that impact Presidential contests that have nothing to do with the candidates or the campaigns.
Chief among these truths is the historical fact that the party of two-term presidents almost never keeps the White House.
For well over the past 100 years, Ronald Reagan has been the lone two-term President whose party’s non-incumbent kept the White House after running twice and leaving office.
Even the multi-term FDR’s successor, Truman, was President by the time he had to run. But look through history’s list. The two successive wins by Clinton, Nixon, Eisenhower, Woodrow Wilson. Besides, Reagan, you have to go back to Ulysses S. Grant to find a President who won twice and then was succeeded by a non-President of his own party, and that was decided by a Congressional commission (Rutherford B. Hayes lost the popular vote and the electoral college was contested). It’s that rare. It’s another testament to the greatness of Reagan that George H. W. Bush won so soundly after Reagan’s consecutive victories.
The country has a long history of trying the other party after electing the same person twice in a row. That’s what John McCain is fighting. Obama’s campaign is no different from Clinton’s 16 years ago, or Carter’s 32 years ago, or Kennedy’s 48 years ago (16 year cycles?).
But, Democrats beware. The Republican resurgence after these leftward tilts were of landslide proportions. Yes, they’re cyclical too, but they were enough to launch Nixon, Reagan and the only Republican Congress in over a century.
Plus the fact that since the 70s winner of Virginia’s Governorship is usually whatever party isn’t in the White House. (Yes, Clinton gave us Allen and Glimore and Bush gave us Warner and Kaine, just like Reagan/Bush gave us Robb/Balilies/Wilder. At least Carter gave us John Dalton)
That’s what McCain is fighting against. It’s not the economy and it’s not Obama’s campaign. It’s not health care. It’s that Ronald Reagan isn’t in the White House, but a Republican is.
Will McCain defy 150 years of history?
