In a poll favoring Democrats, MCDONNELL leads????
By JR Hoeft | Thursday, June 19th, 2008 | Politics
In a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, a group out of North Carolina, regarding Virginians’ preferences for governor, Attorney General Bob McDonnell out-paced both his potential Democratic rivals, Sen. Creigh Deeds and Del. Brian Moran.
But that’s not the story.
Despite the fact that most Virginians probably don’t even know who these three people are and that
“only the Shadow knows for sure” about what will happen between now and November ’09, a virtual political eternity away, one thing is certain — the poll sampled 45% of individuals who identified themselves as Democrats and only 30% of those who id’d themselves as faithful to the GOP.
Despite this 15% disparity, McDonnell still won. Now that’s a pretty telling statistic.
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About the author
Conservative to the core; liberal with his opinion! J.R. has been involved in politics for over a decade and has worked on several campaigns in Hampton Roads. He has served on the Executive Committee of the Republican Party of Chesapeake and the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia. He is also the director of “Blogs United” in Virginia. E-mail J.R.. Follow J.R. on Twitter.
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5 Responses to "In a poll favoring Democrats, MCDONNELL leads????"
As early as it is, this is pretty good news for the McDonnell camp. In talking to some of them following this poll, they are happy about it, but still are quite cautious, given that the election is 17 months away. Should help fundraising, though, which hasn’t been a problem anyway it seems.
An even better indicator of McDonnell’s early starting position is the fact that Obama is running slightly ahead of McCain in this poll (47-45).
I’ll tell you what: if I were Jim Gilmore’s folks, I might highlight the lopsided Democrat demographic in this poll and claim that their race is closer than it seems.
Of course, that would only highlight how much better a position McDonnell is in than Gilmore right now, so who knows.
And, of course, we all remember how far out in front Jerry Kilgore was at this point.
Time to bring out the two time-honored cliches?
1 – The only poll that counts is Election Day.
2 – My favorite (courtesy of Chris LaCivita): The only polls I believe are the ones I pay for.
Oh, and another thing: Tim Kaine’s approval rating dips below 50% (actually 46) in a poll with an oversampling of Democrats.
40% undecided is not good news. This poll is meaningless.
Nice try, The Oath. But when Dems out-sample Republicans by 15 points, I would suspect a Democrat would out-poll the Republican. No matter how many are undecided.
It’s still early, but in most people’s book, this ain’t good news for the two Dem rivals of Moran and Deeds.
Now you know J.R that a poll at this time is pointless. Couple that with a 5 point lead? And the fact the republican has a much higher name ID (especially over moran). If anything it spells trouble for McBollinelli.
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